Assessment of the Impacts of Tropical Cyclones Idai to the Western Coastal Area and Hinterlands of the South Western Indian Ocean

Kai, Kombo Hamad; Osima, Sarah E.; Ismail, M.; Waniha, Pacal; Omar, Hamad Asya

doi:10.4236/acs.2021.114047

Cited by 5 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…Most stations of these indices are concentrated in most parts over the country except over Southern region. The dominance of the increasing trend of (IPCC, 2023;Ojara et al, 2021;Osima et al, 2018) to be caused by increasing global warming, Teleconnection systems (El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD )) and Tropical cyclones in the basin of South-Western Indian Ocean (Kai, Osima, et al, 2021b). The indices related to very wet days (R95p) and extremely wet days (R99p) have observed to increase statistically significant over the entire period of time 1981-2020 at 29 mm/decade and 13 mm/decade respectively with most stations all over the country (more than 85%) except for the southern region.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The study's significance stems from the fact that extreme precipitation events, which are defined as a marked and unusual precipitation event occurring during a period of hours to a longer period of several days, with total precipitation largely exceeding local average conditions of that period (WMO, 2015), lead to extreme hydrological events which have significant negative economic and social effects due to the harm they inflict on agriculture, human settlements, ecosystems, human health, and water supply sources, among others (Kai, Ngwali, et al, 2021a;Mafuru, 2018). Like other countries in East Africa, Tanzania has been also suffering from extreme precipitation both socially and economically as documented by (Chang'a et al, 2020b;Kai, Osima, et al, 2021b;Mafuru, 2018;Racoma et al, 2022). Also, research on extreme precipitation is relevant to several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including Goal 2 on Zero Hunger (Huck, 2022), Goal 11 on Sustainable Cities and Communities (United Nation-HLPF, 2018) and Goal 13 on Climate Action (Advocates for International Development, n.d.).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climatic Indices’ Analysis on Extreme Precipitation for Tanzania Synoptic Stations

Ndabagenga,

Yu,

Mbawala

et al. 2023

GEP

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Like other countries in East Africa, Tanzania has been affected by extreme precipitation incidences both socially and economically. Determining the trend and variability features of extreme precipitation in the country is crucial. This study used data from 28 meteorological stations for 1981-2020 period to give an annual and seasonal analysis of the patterns of 10 ETCCDI's extreme precipitation indices over the regions. At annual scale, the results showed that increasing trends had high frequency percentage than the decreasing ones, collecting about 76% in total. The decreasing trend was approximately 24%, and most of the stations with increasing percentage in trend are concentrated in Northern coast, Central, West, North-eastern highlands and Lake Victoria Basin. Most of the stations depicted negative trend are concentrated over Southern region. This highlights that extreme precipitation events have increased over the country for the period 1981-2020. At seasonal scale, during October to December (OND); the patterns of extreme precipitation climatic indices except R99p, showed positive significant increasing trend over Lake Victoria Basin and some Western parts of the country. In general, spatial patterns indicate decrease of precipitation over most parts of the country during OND. The seasonal average time series depicted non-significant positive trend during March to April (MAM) season, except for Consecutive Wet Days (CWD) which showed non-significant decreasing trend. Over the highest mountain in Africa, Kilimanjaro; the study has revealed significant decrease in Annual total-wet Precipitation (PRCPTOT), the number of heavy (very heavy) days of precipitation R10 mm (R20 mm

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climatic Indices’ Analysis on Extreme Precipitation for Tanzania Synoptic Stations

Ndabagenga,

Yu,

Mbawala

et al. 2023

GEP

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“…a) This study applies synoptic methods to analyze the circulation situation in multiple levels. These include diagnosis of relative humidity, precipitable water, low and middle level circulation, and vorticity in low levels (Kai et al, 2021).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of a Snowfall Process in North China during February 12-13, 2022

Shan¹

2022

GEP

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This research analyzed a snowfall process in north China during February 12-13, 2022. By using synoptic and numerical analysis, it is concluded that this snowfall process was mainly caused by trough, low-level vortex, shear line and Siberian High. Meanwhile, an easterly wind that transports water vapor from the Bohai to North China, was the water resource of the snowfall process. Relative humidity in the low atmosphere was above 80%, providing an excellent humidity condition for snowfall. Positive vorticity and convergence induced upward motion, which offered conditions for snowfall. Numerical reconstruction is also used to show the range and the intensity of the snowfall process.

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“…The rainfall regimes as described by Camberlin & Okoola, (2003) are greatly concurred with the northward or southward movement of Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone, ITCZ which also influence early/ late onset and cessation of the seasonal rains. Several factors have been documented to influence rainfall characteristics of an area ranging from mesoscale to global scale including; the meso-scale circulation induced by Oceans, Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone, and the moist Congo Air masses (Hamisi, 2013;Ininda, 1994;Mugalavai et al, 2008), positive polarity of the Indian Ocean Dipole, IOD ( Mahongo et al, (2011); Zorita & Tilya, (2002)) defined by (Kai, 2019) as sea surface temperature (SST) gradient anomalies between the western (50˚-70˚) E and (10˚S -10˚N) and southeastern (90˚-110˚) E and (10˚S -0˚N) of equatorial Indian Ocean, ENSO; El Nino (warm ENSO) and La Nina (cold ENSO) events as recognized by ; Kijazi & Reason, (2005); Nicholson, (2017) and Ogallo, (1988) which impacts OND rainfall variations in Zanzibar and act as interaction between the atmosphere, land and sea. Monsoonal flow is also stated to impacts the short rains which accompanying with the northeast monsoon flow while the long rains are accounted by southerly to southwesterly and southeasterly monsoon winds (Kai, 2019).…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Determination of October to December Seasonal Rainfall Variability, its Seasonal Onset and Cessation Dates in Zanzibar, Tanzania

Suleiman,

Wen,

Kazora

et al. 2023

J. Stabil. Environ. Mgt

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This study aimed in determining the October to December (OND) rainfall variability, seasonal onset and cessation dates in Zanzibar, Tanzania. The study used 10 years daily rainfall (2012–2021) and 30 years monthly rainfall datasets obtained from six meteorological stations. Other climate parameters of Sea Surface Temperature (SST), Winds, Relative Humidity and Vertical Velocity having temporal resolution of 30 years (1992-2021) were also used. Rainfall seasonal variability was analyzed using Climatological mean and Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis, onset and cessation dates was calculated using Cumulative percentage anomalies. The composite analysis was taken to examine the atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with OND seasonal rainfall. The study revealed that; OND season is characterized by normal to moderate rainfall variations from region to region with its peak marked at November (mid-season). Despite the slight differences over both Islands, average onset dates occur on third dekade of October (22nd – 25th) and cessation dates on the second dekade of December (i.e.10th -12th), indicating a maximum duration of 55- 60 days and makes a cycle of the short rains. The atmospheric circulation anomalies of SST, Winds, Relative Humidity and Vertical Velocity during wet years are linked with low level unstable moist winds originated from Congo basin. These anomalies are organized and converges with maritime north easterly winds from the Indian Ocean (mostly over the northern coast of Tanzania, including Zanzibar) and becoming a potential cause for rainfall during the season, while during dry years, the winds diverge as a result of dryness over the region. Therefore the results indicates that convergence (divergence) of the northwesterly to westerly, easterly and southeasterly flow contributed to the early(late) wetness (dryness) over Zanzibar and its surroundings. The study results will help to enhance the improvement of short rains seasonal onsets and cessations forecasts and improve the socio - economic activities over Zanzibar and Tanzanian at large.

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Assessment of the Impacts of Tropical Cyclones Idai to the Western Coastal Area and Hinterlands of the South Western Indian Ocean

Cited by 5 publications

References 45 publications

Climatic Indices’ Analysis on Extreme Precipitation for Tanzania Synoptic Stations

Climatic Indices’ Analysis on Extreme Precipitation for Tanzania Synoptic Stations

Analysis of a Snowfall Process in North China during February 12-13, 2022

Determination of October to December Seasonal Rainfall Variability, its Seasonal Onset and Cessation Dates in Zanzibar, Tanzania

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