Assessment of the Impact of Changes in Storm Rainfall and Landscape Characteristics on the Maximum Flow of Small Rivers

Ilinich, Vitali; Perminov, A.V.; Belolybcev, Aleksandr; Naumova, Anna

doi:10.1007/978-981-15-5436-0_55

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…Саваренского при годовой дискретности [1,2]. С ее помощью проводились вероятностные расчеты различных характеристик регулирования стока водохранилищами [3,4,5]. В то же время и позже применялись расчеты и просто по календарным рядам [6, 7 и др.…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Assessing Probability Characteristics of Reservoir Operation Using Bayesian Technology

Ilinich¹,

Perminov²,

Gavrilovskaya³

2023

Известия АлтГУ

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This study explores the use of Bayes' theorem to determine the probability characteristics of reservoir operation, specifically in cases where the reservoir capacity is exceeded or sustained within its active storage capacity. The investigation focuses on moments of streamflow increase during the spring flood and water shortage in the fall. The study aims to develop methods for regulating reservoir runoff using Bayesian technology, with specific tasks including developing a calculation algorithm to estimate the probabilistic characteristics of reservoir operation based on the Bayes formula with a seasonal division of the water management year, identi-fying the necessary probabilistic characteristics of reservoir filling and water recovery, and solving the inverse problem using the Bayes formula to determine the required initial filling at given values of the reservoir filling and its probability by the end of the calculated time interval. The study's relevance is rooted in the need to determine the probability characteristics of reservoir filling and water discharge to consumers during streamflow regulation.

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Section: Introductionunclassified

Assessing Probability Characteristics of Reservoir Operation Using Bayesian Technology

Ilinich¹,

Perminov²,

Gavrilovskaya³

2023

Известия АлтГУ

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“…From the world practice it is known, that cultivation of citrus crops is effective even in harsh temperature plant stress. At the same time, the study of the cultivation of these crops becomes particularly relevant in the light of the current global climate warming, which gives grounds to put a possible advance of their cultivation area to the north from traditional territories [1,2,5,6].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The probability of cultivation of citrus crops on the territory of the Black Sea coast of the Caucasus

Avdeev,

Belolubtsev

2023

BIO Web Conf.

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According to the result of analysis of 30-year series of agro-climatic data, it shown that south part (Sochi region) of the Black Sea coast of the Caucasus is the most suitable area on the coast for citrus fruits cultivation. Central part of coast has almost optimal agroclimatic indicators and corresponds to all demands and limiting factors of citrus, except for rear short frosts, but without extra loss in crop yields. Northwest part of the Black Sea coast (Anapa region) correspond to the citrus fruits cultivation in terms of heat supply, but inferior in terms of water supply, soils, and criterion of frost susceptibility of the territory. As a result, the cultivation of citrus crops in this area is quite risky, since involves large losses in harvest without appropriate adaptive agrotechnical activities.

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Assessment of the impact of climatic characteristics and landscape changes on the maximum flow of small watersheds

2021

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Introduction. The article dedicated to safety of hydraulic structures in small catchments. The research consists in the development of a methodology for assessment of influence of climatic and landscape changes on the maximum flow which determins sizes for the construction elements. The practical significance is due to the assessment of changes in the reliability of hydraulic structures, as well as the degree of potential flooding of territories and soil erosion during rain floods. In scientific terms, the practical significance lies in the justification of changes in the parameters of the formula for the maximum flow calculating. The main goal of the study was to test hypotheses about an increase in the intensity of storm rainfalls and of changes in landscape characteristics during recent decades. Accordingly the next problems were desided: assessment the increase in the daily maximums of precipitation and landscape changes over the past decades; as well as assessing the degree of influence of the above factors on the increase in the maximum water. Materials and methods. The data of the network weather station and the landscape characteristics of the catchment area served as the research materials. Methods of statistical analysis and geoinformation technologies were used as research methods. Results. The main results of the research were the characteristics of the increase in maximum daily precipitation and landscape changes over the past decades and the characteristics of their influence on the increase in maximum water flow, obtained on the base of probability theory and of the surface flow theory. Conclusions. A confirmation of the effectiveness of the proposed methodology for assessing changes in the climatic and landscape characteristics of catchments and their impact on the flood maximums. The hydraulic structures built both in the second half of the twentieth century on small catchments, and in subsequent years when using existing building regulations that do not have proper updating have lost their original reliability.

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Assessment of the Impact of Changes in Storm Rainfall and Landscape Characteristics on the Maximum Flow of Small Rivers

Cited by 3 publications

References 6 publications

Assessing Probability Characteristics of Reservoir Operation Using Bayesian Technology

Assessing Probability Characteristics of Reservoir Operation Using Bayesian Technology

The probability of cultivation of citrus crops on the territory of the Black Sea coast of the Caucasus

Assessment of the impact of climatic characteristics and landscape changes on the maximum flow of small watersheds

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