Assessment of the impact of labor migration on the natural demographic movement of the region’s population

Abstract

Labor migration is a key factor in regional demo-economic processes. On the one hand, it plays a significant role in achieving balanced employment. In this sense, it plays a significant role in achieving of the labor markets efficiency. On the other hand, labor migration, as a leading factor in the general migration of the population, along with births and deaths, affects the demographic development of territories. The study of the dual nature of labor migration in the «economy-population» system is an important area of predictive analytics and population movement modeling. The article is devoted to the study of the factors of labor migration dynamics in the region and the assessment of its impact on the natural movement of the population. The object of the study is North Ossetia, as a Russian region with a stable negative migration balance and a deteriorating demographic situation. The work used the methods of a sociological survey, as well as cliometric, statistical, graphical and regression analysis. Sociological studies have shown that the level of development of the labor market has a decisive influence on the migration behavior of the young population. The results of the regression analysis performed in the Excel showed a high and strong inverse relationship between the indicators of the natural population movement and the labor migration of young people. The scientific novelty of the research lies in the development of a systematic methodology for studying the demo-economic processes of the region in order to model effective interregional labor migration in Russia.