Assessment of the fiscal effect of the tax reform options until 2019: the case of Russia

Abstract

The upcoming period is marked for Russian tax system with crucial reforms and restructuring. By 2019, the national tax reform of value added tax (VAT) and insurance premiums is expected to be completed. Three options of the proposed changes in tax rates will be considered in this article, as well as possible fiscal consequences for the national economy will be calculated. The purpose of the article is to assess fiscal effect of the three options for tax reform conducted until 2019. Computationalanalytical method was used as the main one. Possible fiscal consequences for the national economy were calculated on the basis of three options of the proposed changes in tax rates. The study was conducted on the example of four taxes: value added tax, corporate income tax, personal income tax, and insurance premiums. Based on the calculations, the possible consequences of changes in tax rates are determined taking into account possible changes in consumer behaviour, systems approach to the investigation of the tax system, and the appearance of the feedback loop effect.

Tax Transformations Effects

“…The new behavioral model will reduce the market capacity and the consumption of domestic products of low quality with high prices. Most businesses will lose their customers, and the temporary fiscal effect will be lost completely or partially due to lower consumption and narrowing of the market [6].…”