Assessment of the Degree of Danger Posed by In-flight Contingencies When Exposed to Adverse Factors Affecting the Aircraft

Abstract

Abnormal situations in flight arise when an aircraft in normal flight mode is exposed to one or more unfavourable factors. Therefore, such situations have a pronounced random nature. To assess the degree of danger of contingencies, it is convenient to use the Airworthiness Standards governing the list of situations and probability of their occurrence in flight. The degree of danger can be determined from the assumption that during the life of the aircraft each of the four contingencies will give the same level of risk. By combining all contingency situations with their normalized indicators and using this assumption, we can quantitatively determine their degree of danger (risk level) in the form of probabilistic indicators.

Using Adverse Event Pyramids to Assess Probabilities in Airline Safety Management

“…In this case, the pilot, with the right actions, may prevent the aircraft from going down and prevent an accident from the aircraft. The probability of accident elimination following the departure of the determination parameter outside the permitted limits is [6].…”

“…The probability of a safe ending of the flight after an accident and departure of the determinants outside the limits is: (5) The probability that the flight will lead to aviation accident can be expressed as: (6) So, the probability of a flight's safe conclusion is:…”