Assessment of the close approach frequency and collision probability for satellites in different configurations of large constellations

Petit, Alexis; Rossi, Alessandro; Alessi, Elisa Maria

doi:10.1016/j.asr.2021.02.022

Cited by 14 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…DR imaging = range Swath × v ground × bit pixel res crng res range ( 6) Figure 10. Diagram representing the acquisition phase strategy of the constellation inside the simulation.…”

Section: Simulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This principle is prominently manifested in numerous space programs, where it stands as core concept. Constellations such as Starlink [2] [3] and OneWeb [4] aim to meet the global users' demand for internet access, even in the remotest zones of the Earth [5] [6]. Missions such as Space Rider prioritize enduser needs by integrating them into the system and mission definition to inform the design process [7].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A Model-based approach for the preliminary design of the SAR Upstream element for the Italian IRIDE EO constellation based on users’ demand

Conti,

Eugeni,

Marzioli

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Traditional approaches to the design of satellite constellations are typically related to technical conditions and financial effort. The use of optimization methods is limited to design specific technical performances of the single spacecraft, missing to resort to a holistic view of the whole mission including user needs. Given the growing significance of large Low Earth Orbit (LEO) constellations of small satellites in Earth Observation, there is a pressing need to develop design tools that can incorporate user needs into the overall preliminary design process of a constellation. This paper aims to formulate and preliminarily test a systematic model-based approach capable of integrating user needs within the entire preliminary design process of a constellation architecture. The purpose of the methodology is to identify cost-effective architectures for more detailed design studies and to propose optimal solutions to fulfill the variety of requests from users. It is composed of five major steps: formulation, enumeration, simulation, evaluation, and down-selection. As a case study, the proposed approach is implemented to define the preliminary architecture of the Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) sub-constellation within the IRIDE Italian program. Performance is assessed based on the percentage of satisfied user needs and the volume of downlinked data to ground stations. Five optimal SAR constellations are proposed. Results demonstrate that the approach provides a valuable tool for the optimal preliminary design of a satellite infrastructure, taking into account not only technical performance but also user needs throughout the entire design process.

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“…DR imaging = range Swath × v ground × bit pixel res crng res range ( 6) Figure 10. Diagram representing the acquisition phase strategy of the constellation inside the simulation.…”

Section: Simulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Model-based approach for the preliminary design of the SAR Upstream element for the Italian IRIDE EO constellation based on users’ demand

Conti,

Eugeni,

Marzioli

et al. 2024

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The terrestrial tier is composed of 300 gateways. The numbers of satellites with heights of 575 km and 1200 km are 140 and 720, as imitations of Kepler and OneWeb constellations, respectively [11].…”

Section: Case Study Of a Three-tier Hstrnmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Secondly, many satellite constellations are not large enough for independent routing [1], and a multiconstellation cooperative routing is more realistic [10]. In addition, several satellite companies, such as OneWeb and Kuiper, deploy satellites at different altitudes [3], [11]. Therefore, it is meaningful to analyze the interruption probability of a multi-tier HSTRN.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reliability Analysis of Multi-hop Routing in Multi-tier LEO Satellite Networks

Wang¹,

Kishk²,

Alouini³

2023

Preprint

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This article studies the reliability of multi-hop routing in a multi-tier hybrid satellite-terrestrial relay network (HSTRN). We evaluate the reliability of multi-hop routing by introducing interruption probability, which is the probability that no relay device (ground gateway or satellite) is available during a hop. The single-hop interruption probability is derived and extended to the multi-hop interruption probability using a stochastic geometry-based approach. Since the interruption probability in HSTRN highly depends on the priority of selecting communication devices at different tiers, we propose three priority strategies: (i) stationary optimal priority strategy, (ii) single-hop interruption probability inspired strategy, and (iii) density inspired strategy. Among them, the interruption probability under the stationary optimal priority strategy can approach the ideal lower bound. However, when analyzing an HSTRN with a large number of tiers, the stationary optimal priority strategy is computationally expensive. The single-hop interruption probability inspired strategy is expected to be a low-complexity but less reliable alternative to the stationary optimal priority strategy. In numerical results, we study the complementarity between terrestrial devices and satellites. Furthermore, analytical results for reliability are also applicable to the analysis of satellite availability, coverage probability, and ultra-reliable and low latency communications (URLLC) rate. Finally, we extend our original routing strategy into a multi-flow one with dynamic priority strategy.

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“…where T is the orbital period of the space target, and t  is the elapsed time of the space target entering and leaving the space volume element. On this basis, Kessler et al made assumptions about the parameters of the target orbit and gave the calculation method of the spatial density of the object [28].…”

Section: Space Object Density Calculation Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Collision risk analysis of mega constellations in low Earth orbit

Ruan,

Hu,

Yun

et al. 2023

Preprint

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The LEO megaconstellations have thousands of satellites, which operate on similar orbital heights. Because of increasing space debris, the satellites accelerate the growth of the number of space objects, increase the threat to their own safety and sustainable utilization of the space environment. This paper focuses on short-term collision probability and long-term collision probability calculation model for collision risk of mega constellations. On the one hand, aiming at how to solve the problem quickly and accurately for rendezvous collisions, a short-term collision risk evolution calculation model of LEO mega-constellation is established. By investigating the space collision target screening methods of large-scale satellites against large-scale space debris, including apogee–perigee filtering, time window filtering, space discrete volume element filtering and relative position filtering, the filtered target trajectory is fitted by Lagrange interpolation method to obtain the motion state at the closest time. Then, the collision probability calculation method of Laplace transform is used to calculate the collision probability of the target at the closest time. On the other hand, the long-term collision risk evolution model of LEO Mega constellation is established. By simplifying the model of debris and collision, we explore the calculation method of space object density, space debris attenuation model, space target disintegration model and the distribution of disintegration targets are studied. According to the way of space debris’ generation and extinction to calculate the change of space density. The collision probability between the satellite and space debris and space debris are calculated by using the calculation method of collision probability of particle-in-a-box (PIB). Finally, through the simulation of Starlink phase I constellation, results show that after the deployment of the Starlink constellation, the probability of a short-term collision in the constellation shell increases by 30–40%, the probability of at least one collision in the constellation lifetime is 70.2%, and the probability of a secondary collision increases by 25.3% after a collision. This study provides a theoretical reference for analyzing the orbital safety of the LEO mega-constellation, and provides a reference for the safe operation of spacecraft on-orbit and the sustainable development and utilization of space resources.

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Assessment of the close approach frequency and collision probability for satellites in different configurations of large constellations

Cited by 14 publications

References 8 publications

A Model-based approach for the preliminary design of the SAR Upstream element for the Italian IRIDE EO constellation based on users’ demand

A Model-based approach for the preliminary design of the SAR Upstream element for the Italian IRIDE EO constellation based on users’ demand

Reliability Analysis of Multi-hop Routing in Multi-tier LEO Satellite Networks

Collision risk analysis of mega constellations in low Earth orbit

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