Assessment of the Climate Change Impact on Broiler Chickens in Northern Tunisia

Abstract

Climate change continues to influence global ecosystems, raising concerns for livestock. This study assesses the impacts of climate change on broiler chickens in northern Tunisia, focusing on well-being and mortality rates during summer. Historical data from the NRMCM5.1 and MPIESM1.2 models, were utilized, covering 1970 to 1997. Projections for 2041-2070 under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios were examined, providing insight into future challenges. The Temperature-Humidity Index (THI) and Temperature-Humidity-Velocity Index (THVI) served as thermal comfort indicators. The research utilized temperature and relative air humidity data from two models and scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) as inputs for the DCP system, thus evaluating comfort parameters (THI and THVI). The analysis involved calculating annual temperature and humidity averages at the system's output for each grid and region. Historical and projected data were employed to assess mortality levels by identifying heatwave periods, which had an average duration of 2.7 consecutive days with THI exceeding 30.6°C. The analysis showed significant increases in THI and THVI in the RCP8.5 pessimistic scenario, indicating a risk of heat stress. Mortality rates were used as a measure of the vulnerability of the poultry industry to climate change, and the projections showed substantial average increases of 2.2°C for THI and 1.5°C for THVI.. The RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios predicted an increase in mortality for the period 2041-2070, with averages increasing from 0.8 to 1.3 for RCP8.5 and from 0.6 to 1.1 for RCP4.5, highlighting the need for adaptation strategies to ensure sustainability in poultry farming.