Assessment of technological options in the global energy system for limiting the atmospheric CO2 concentration

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to assess comprehensively the technological measures for limiting CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system and then to sketch concrete scenarios for the desirable future development of the global energy system over the next century. To facilitate the assessment, we developed a large-scale energy system model Dynamic New Earth 21 based on the New Earth 21 model. The Dynamic New Earth 21 model has been developed to cope with newly emerging research topics, such as an integrated assessment of climate change. This paper presents the latest numerical results of this model and its outlined descriptions. In the framework of this energy model, the world is divided into 10 regions so we can evaluate the differences in regional economic and geographical conditions. The model can assess the various technological options up to the year 2100, optimizing intertemporally the sum of the discounted total energy system costs. As specific technological options, the model takes into account the following categories of technologies: energy-saving in end-use sectors, efficiency improvement in energy conversion sectors, utilization of various less carbon-intensive energy resources, disposal and recycling of CO2 recovered in the energy systems, and innovative system technologies especially with respect to hydrogen use. The results of the study suggest that the CO 2 problem cannot be easily settled by any single technological option, but they also suggest that if those options are reasonably combined with one another there is technological potential for CO2 emission reduction. For limiting atmospheric CO2 concentrations to less than 550ppm over the next century, the computed optimal CO2 emission trajectory indicates that relatively modest abatement actions are expected in the near future, implying that immediate CO2 emission reduction or stabilization strategies will not necessarily lead to economically efficient outcomes.

Analysis of Technological Portfolios for C02 Stabilizations and Effects of Technological Changes

“…Table 3 lists the assumed facility costs and the energy requirements for CO 2 capture technologies. The cost reduction and energy efficiency improvement of CO 2 capture technologies are exogenously assumed to proceed with time; this is based on several sources (David et al, 2000;Fujii et al, 1998). In this model, the cost of electricity generation is endogenously determined by the region, time point, and type of time period in the model, and therefore, costs per ton of avoided CO 2 emissions are also determined within the model, although the energy requirements are exogenous.…”

“…The details are provided by Akimoto et al, (2004). David et al (2000); Fujii et al (1998) , and the capacity increases with natural gas production. ‡ ‡ The proceeds from recovered gas are excluded.…”

Analysis of R&D Strategy for Advanced Combined Cycle Power Systems

“…Japan imports almost all fossil fuels, and the imported prices of crude oil and coal are exogenously assumed by using the endogenous analysis results with a world energy systems model, Dynamic New Earth 21 (DNE21) (25) , in the no climate intervention case. On the other hand, the LNG price was assumed to change in proportion to the oil price.…”

An Inexact Mix-Integer Two-Stage Linear Programming Model for Supporting the Management of a Low-Carbon Energy System in China

“…In the past, a great number of system analysis techniques were proposed for energy management [20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39]. Many of them focused on China's energy management systems under multiple scales, particularly those highly reliant on coal for power generation.…”