Assessment of Socio-Environmental Vulnerability Due to Tropical Cyclones in La Paz, Baja California Sur, Mexico

Abstract

Climate change will increase the likelihood of adverse events such as droughts, forest fires, and intensification of tropical cyclones, which are known to cause flooding (IPCC, 2014). The effects of these events are a cause of concern for both authorities and citizens, so they prioritize actions that reduce adverse impacts, especially in cities with higher risk. Therefore, the objective of this work was to measure the degree of socio-environmental vulnerability of households to identify the risk areas in the city of La Paz, Baja California Sur, one of the regions with a high degree of incidence of hurricanes in the northwest of Mexico. For this, surveys were carried out with heads of households in 251 homes, and information was aggregated to calculate the vulnerability index through principal components analysis (PCA), which were stratified by the Dalenius-Hodges method, the degree of vulnerability was classified into three categories by the Opiyo method, considering three strata of the Likert scale, 1 = highly vulnerable, 2 = moderately vulnerable, 3 = less vulnerable. The results showed that households that are in the highly vulnerable category are 33% within a range of the index −3.77243 to −0.939141. Moderately vulnerable households constitute 36% with values from −0.929141 to 0.956385. While the least vulnerable represent 31% of households with an index range of 0.966385 to 5.6952. The results have revealed the levels of high and moderate socio-environmental vulnerability by tropical cyclones of 69% homes in La Paz. The above allowed to generate risk maps that will be taken into account in planning and civil protection over adverse events.Sustainability 2020, 12, 1575 2 of 11 depends on the differences between susceptibility, which includes exposure and sensitivity, and on the other hand, the ability to cope with or recover from the damage caused, which is known as resilience.One of the vulnerabilities due to heavy rainfall related to cyclones and rainfall is the large number of people in urban areas exposed to episodes of flooding, especially in informal settlements. It is estimated that about 600 million people by the year 2100 will be prone to hurricane impacts [2] and it is considered that the greatest effects of climate change will occur in coastal areas, as the average sea level will have increased by 38 cm from 1990 to 2080, the number of people susceptible to flooding in low-lying areas will increase five times [3].The destructive potential of tropical cyclones (TC) has increased markedly since the 1970s. According to Emanuel Kerry [4], the power dissipation of TC is highly correlated with the sea surface temperature, muti-decadal oscillations and global warming. The risk and exposure to natural disasters will be significantly increased if we consider the increase in the population that lives in coastal areas and the increase in the destructive potential of the TCs in both the North Pacific Ocean and the North Atlantic. In the case of Mexico, during the last three decades, both exposure factors and v...

Community Perception and Communication of Volcanic Risk from the Cotopaxi Volcano in Latacunga, Ecuador

“…This decision was made because, since the methods and results are aimed to be divulged, the categories have been found to be comprehensive, easily understandable, and culturally accepted by the community. Although the Likert scale has been extensively and recently used to successfully assess the community perception (e.g., [82][83][84][85][86]), there are several limitations in its adoption. For instance, as stated in [87], this kind of scale, despite maximizing the reliability of answers, also sacrifices the level of detail.…”

“…An integer numerical score (1, 2, or 3) is assigned to every possible answer. Although the passage from a qualitative perception to an index can be questioned, several recent studies have shown the usefulness of the Likert scale [82][83][84][85][86]. Notably, in [87], it was found to provide a good compromise between the quality of the information collected and the accessibility to respondents, while the bias in responses decreases, and there is consistency across different measurements and research domains of disaster risk reduction.…”

Vulnerability and Risk Factors due to Tropical Cyclones in Coastal Cities of Baja California Sur, Mexico

“…As per our studies, we see that coastal populations have a different scale of vulnerability when data is disaggregated. La Paz had 33% high vulnerability [20]; the less populated municipality in BCS, Loreto, showed that 70% of its households have high and moderate vulnerability, whereas remoteness was also identified as triggering more vulnerability [24]. In our sample, Loreto is a municipality with a lower population in a remote area, compared to La Paz and Los Cabos, and according to other studies, less vulnerability may be due to several factors such as an improved early warning system, better infrastructure, and quicker access to external rescue and aid from humanitarian services in urban areas.…”

“…The questionnaire included four sections: socio-demographic aspects, housing characteristics, level of severity of damages caused by the last hurricane, and level of knowledge about disaster prevention and social capital. We estimated vulnerability according to our previous research through the socio-environmental vulnerability index [20].…”

Perceptions and Consequences of Socioenvironmental Vulnerability Due to Tropical Cyclones in Los Cabos, Mexico

“…This index considers qualitative information, and it is a valid way to capture the real impact suffered by a population [22,23]. For this purpose, it uses the model proposed by Marin-Monroy et al [24], which includes ten variables. Of these, three relate to sensitivity: type of roofing and housing construction material, type of housing floor construction material, and type of housing wall construction material; four relate to exposure based on the perceptions of the degree of damage caused by flooding, high winds, storm surge, and flooding of streams.…”