Assessment of River Regime of Chenab River in Post-Chiniot Dam Project Scenario

Abstract

Dams and reservoirs trap most sediments, and clear water can cause downstream riverbed degradation or aggradation. As a result, the river adjusts its dynamics and channel geometry to regain equilibrium between sediment supply and transport capacity. This study aimed to assess the river regime of the Chenab River in the post-Chiniot Dam Project scenario using a one-dimensional numerical model. After calibration and validation using historic flows and river surveys, simulations were carried out for 5, 10, and 30 years. The sediment model was validated with Brune’s curve, which showed a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency value of 0.734. The results showed that the river experienced continuous degradation of sediments for the first 16 years and showed a maximum erosion of 8 m at 680 m downstream of the dam. The reach experienced aggradation at 15 km downstream of the dam for the first 10 years and then became stable and showed a maximum deposition of 0.9 m. The ratio of sediments passed through the dam to sediments transported out of reach varied from 0.833 to 0.921, showing that the river reach would continue to attain equilibrium even after 30 years of reservoir operation. The study would be helpful for the prediction of possible future changes in the Chenab River.