Assessment of RCM and urban scenarios uncertainties in the climate projections for August in the 2050s in Tokyo

Kusaka, Hiroyuki; Suzuki-Parker, Asuka; Aoyagi, Toshio; Adachi, Sachiho A.; Yamagata, Yoshiki

doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1693-2

Cited by 44 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…Thus, urban-induced processes should be essentially considered in air quality forecasts for urban areas, e.g., in COSMO-ART model [99], which is now used for this purpose for Moscow region [100,101]. It is also important to take them into consideration in high-resolution weather forecast for urban areas, biometeorological applications and in downscaling of climate change scenarios as shown in [7,102].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Megacity-Induced Mesoclimatic Effects in the Lower Atmosphere: A Modeling Study for Multiple Summers over Moscow, Russia

et al. 2018

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Urbanization leads to distinct meteorological features of urban environments, and one the best-known is the urban heat island (UHI) effect. For megacities, these features become mesoscale phenomena (scale ≥ 10 km) that are amplified by the tropospheric feedbacks, and have substantial implications on human well-being. For the first time, a three-dimensional statistical description of the megacity-induced meteorological effects extending towards the lower troposphere for summer is acquired on a quasi-climatological timescale (a decade) based on high-resolution (1 km) simulations for Moscow with the COSMO-CLM model with and without its urban canopy model TERRA_URB. Our results confirm the features from previous observational and modeling studies, including the UHI itself, the cooling effect above established by the cross-over effect, the urban dry/moist islands and the urban breeze circulation. Particularly, the UHI shows a strong diurnal variation in terms of intensity and vertical extent between daytime (≈0.5 K/≈1.5 km) and nighttime (>3 K/≈150 m). We have discovered a systematic veering in the downwind shift of the UHI spatial pattern established by the Coriolis effect, and an enhanced stable stratification of the rural surroundings established by the urban plumes further downwind. Finally, extending the analysis to multiple summers demonstrates a substantial increase in summer precipitation (up to +25%) over the city center and its leeward side. These urban-caused mesoclimatic effects need to be taken into account in weather and climate services, including the design of future megacities.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Megacity-Induced Mesoclimatic Effects in the Lower Atmosphere: A Modeling Study for Multiple Summers over Moscow, Russia

et al. 2018

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“…Two studies by McCarthy et al (2010) and Oleson et al (2010) coupled a GCM with the SLUCM to examine the influences of urban geometry and anthropogenic heat emissions on UHI intensity. Though such climate models have improved the representation of urban surfaces, their spatial resolution is too coarse to accurately describe urban areas (Kusaka et al 2016). An effective approach to better represent urban areas is to increase the resolution via dynamical downscaling with a regional climate model (RCM).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interaction of urban heat islands and heat waves under current and future climate conditions and their mitigation using green and cool roofs in New York City and Phoenix, Arizona

Tewari

Yang

Kusaka

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Urban environments and heat waves interact synergistically and aggravate the thermal environment through the urban heat island (UHI) effect. Of concern is the potential for a projected warmer future climate to further compound heat waves in urban environments. The present study investigates the interaction of a 2006 heat wave in North America with two urban environments (Phoenix and New York City (NYC)) in current climate and future climate simulations. The future climate conditions were generated using the pseudo-global warming methodology. Multiple high-resolution (3 km) simulations were performed using the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the single-layer urban canopy model to improve representation of urban processes and we explore how irrigated green roofs and cool roofs can mitigate heat wave amplification by UHIs. To quantify heat wave intensity, an analytical model is applied to the WRF model output that considers the urban surface heat and water vapor exchanges with the atmosphere. A future, warmer climate is found to amplify the UHI intensity during heat waves in both Phoenix (21%) and NYC (48%), but the amplification is of great uncertainty as its magnitude is comparable to the temporal variability of temperatures. The increase in urban heat index can be almost completely offset by adopting irrigated green roofs in urban areas, and partially offset by adopting cool roofs.

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“…Argüeso et al () also found this for the Sydney region and concluded that the increase in minimum temperature was much higher than the change in maximum temperature. These results is in agreement with many evidences in the recent literature indicating that future urbanization may amplify the air temperature in different climatic regions (Mahmood et al, ) either under present (Doan et al, ; Kaplan et al, ; Li et al, ) or future conditions (Argüeso et al, ; Georgescu et al, ; Grossman‐Clarke et al, ; Kim et al, ; Kusaka et al, ) with a strong impact on minimum temperatures.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Moreover, the impact of future urbanization on mesoscale and potentially regional-scale climate needs additional investigations. In fact, only a few modeling groups working at the regional scale are now beginning to implement urban parameterizations within the land surface model component of their regional climate model (Argüeso et al, 2014;Doan et al, 2016;Georgescu et al, 2013;Grossman-Clarke et al, 2017;Kaplan et al, 2017;Kim et al, 2016;Kusaka et al, 2016;Li et al, 2018). Other groups generally employ a dynamical downscaling of global climate model information with a nonurbanized regional climate model, while further high-resolution simulations are often performed using some type of statistical and/or dynamical downscaling by running off-line urban modules (Conry et al, 2015;Früh et al, 2011;Hamdi et al, 2016;Hoffmann et al, 2016;Lauwaet et al, 2015;Lemonsu et al, 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Bridging the Gap Between Policy‐Driven Land Use Changes and Regional Climate Projections

2019

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Changes in the land surface interact with a changing climate. Moreover, the impact of land surface changes on the local and regional climate can be as large as the impact of increasing greenhouse gas emissions. The land surface‐climate interactions are best represented by high‐resolution models to capture the mesoscale circulation features. The future land surface changes are preferably represented by scenarios that illustrate plausible storylines. Furthermore, the impact of future urbanization is relevant for the highly urbanized region of Europe. In this study, we assess the interactions between climate and land surface dynamics by modeling the near‐future climate state for western Europe based on a policy‐driven land use change scenario at high resolution. The global climate model CNRM‐CM5.1 has been downscaled to the regional climate of western Europe by using ALARO‐SURFEX at 4‐km horizontal resolution. SURFEX provides a parameterization of the urban physical properties so that the impact of urban surfaces on the regional climate can be modeled realistically. Results are interpreted with respect to the near‐future climate change without land surface changes. The near future presents a uniform temperature increase of 0.3–0.6 °C. This is in contrast to changes by the land surface that are more heterogeneous in space and much stronger at the local scale. Deforestation and conversion to arable land diminishes climate change effects, whereas urbanization results in an enhancing effect of climate change. Moreover, urbanization is as big as the radiative forcing warming for minimum temperature.

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Assessment of RCM and urban scenarios uncertainties in the climate projections for August in the 2050s in Tokyo

Cited by 44 publications

References 33 publications

Megacity-Induced Mesoclimatic Effects in the Lower Atmosphere: A Modeling Study for Multiple Summers over Moscow, Russia

Megacity-Induced Mesoclimatic Effects in the Lower Atmosphere: A Modeling Study for Multiple Summers over Moscow, Russia

Interaction of urban heat islands and heat waves under current and future climate conditions and their mitigation using green and cool roofs in New York City and Phoenix, Arizona

Bridging the Gap Between Policy‐Driven Land Use Changes and Regional Climate Projections

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