Assessment of machine learning, time series, response surface methodology and empirical models in prediction of global solar radiation

Gürel, Ali Etem; Ağbulut, Ümit; Biçen, Yunus

doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.122353

Cited by 88 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…3, NOx gives the worst results in terms of MBE metric, even if the prediction curve is closely followed to actual data owing to its high R 2 value of 0.991. As mentioned above, the best result for MBE metric is seen at the values of closing to zero [21]. That is why BTE has the best MBE result of 0.0837.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 77%

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ANN Based Prediction of Engine Performance and Exhaust Emission Responses of a CI Engine Powered By Ternary Blends

Karagöz

2020

International Journal of Automotive Science and Technology

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In this study, experimental data was gathered from a single cylinder diesel engine fuelled with pyrolytic oil, neat diesel and butanol fuel blends. The experiments were conducted at varying engine loads from 0.25 kW to 1 kW with the interval of 0.25 kW. The engine performance and emission data obtained were predicted using an artificial neural network (ANN) algorithm. Assessed responses are CO, NOx, BSFC, and BTE. The results were discussed in terms of R2, MBE, and RMSE metrics. The performance and emission responses were predicted with a good R2 value of 0.986, 0.963, 0.991, and 0967 for BTE, BSFC, NOx, and CO, respectively, and all MBE value is very close to zero and smaller than 1.14. In the conclusion, the present paper showed that the ternary form of n-butanol-pyrolytic fuel and diesel fuel can be used in a CI engine with no modification on the vehicular system and the emission and performance responses of ternary fuels can be accurately predicted using an artificial neural network.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 77%

“…These are R 2 , RMSE and MBE. Table 3 gives the equations and desired cases of these metrics [19,21,22]. Table 3.…”

Section: Evaluation Metricsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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ANN Based Prediction of Engine Performance and Exhaust Emission Responses of a CI Engine Powered By Ternary Blends

Karagöz

2020

International Journal of Automotive Science and Technology

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“…This model includes a method that involves using some of the measured parameters in a linear equation to calculate the total solar irradiance. This model used the clarity index with the sunshine hours (Ali et al, 2020).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Comparative Study of Regression Models and Meteorological Parameters to Estimate the Global Solar Radiation on a Horizontal Surface for Baghdad City, Iraq

Al-Ghezi

Mahmoud

Alnasser

et al. 2021

Int. J. Renew. Energy Dev.

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. In this study, data of the monthly average of daily global solar radiation falling on a horizontal surface, relative humidity, maximum temperature, and duration of sunshine for the city of Baghdad were collected through two sources. First, from the Iraqi Meteorological Authority (IMA) for a period extending from 1961 to 2016. The second is from NASA, for the period from 1984 to 2004. Then, four linear regression models, two single and two polynomials were formulated to calculate the values of the monthly average of daily global horizontal solar radiation (GHSR) incidents. The models calculated the monthly average of daily extraterrestrial radiation and day length, using some data provided by NASA and the IMA. To ensure the validity of the used models, a statistical test was performed for the performance of the proposed models, using the indicators mean bias Error (MBE), root mean square error (RMSE) as well as mean percentage error (MPE). The validation shows the relationship between the measured and computed values (through the analysis of the results), where a great convergence was found between the measured and calculated values. This means that the proposed models can be adapted to predict global solar radiation. The highest values of measured solar radiation were during the month of June, which were 28.555 and 27.280 MJ/m2/day from the IMA and NASA, respectively. The same applies to the radiation calculated using the four empirical models. The month of June was the highest in terms of solar radiation values. The radiation values were 28.947, 26.315, 29.699, and 26.716 MJ/m2/day for the first, second, third, and fourth models, respectively. The lowest values of measured and calculated radiation were during the month of December. Always, radiation measured by the IMA was greater than those of NASA, as well as the values of radiation calculated in the two IMA-based models were greater than the other two NSA-based models. In the absence of a method for measuring the diffuse and direct (beam) solar radiations, as well as the lack of such values by meteorological authorities, and its paramount importance, they were reported to mathematically calculate them in this study. The values of statistical indicators RMSE; MJ/m2/day, MBE; MJ/m2/day and MPE% were (0.4769, 0.0164, 0.2207), (0.8641, 0.1773, -0.9680), (0.6420, 0.3996, -1.1487), (0.9604, 0.218, -1.0225) for the first, second, third and fourth models, respectively. According to the results of the statistical test, it can be indicated that the single linear regression model, based on the IMA’s data (model No.1), is the most accurate to calculate global solar radiation for Baghdad City.

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“…e RMSE [46] can directly reveal the average error between the predicted value and the true value, and when the predicted value is completely consistent with the true value, Complexity it is equal to 0, that is, the perfect model. e larger the error, the larger the value.…”

Section: Correlation Analysis Of Various Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Study on an Intelligent Prediction Method of Ticket Price in a Subway System with Public-Private Partnership

et al. 2021

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The accurate and rapid prediction of ticket prices for a public-private partnership (PPP) subway system, which is an important research topic in the field of civil engineering management, is of critical importance to ensure its smooth operation. To effectively cope with the effects of multiple influencing factors and strong nonlinearity among them, the mean impact value (MIV) method and the back-propagation (BP) feed-forward neural network improved by the sparrow search algorithm (SSA) are used in this study to develop an intelligent prediction model. First, we considered the relationship of the supply and the subway system service, which is a typical quasi-public product, and analyzed the relevant factors affecting its price adjustment. Then, we developed an intelligent method for the prediction of ticket prices based on the SSA-BP. This model not only makes full use of the powerful nonlinear modeling ability of the BP algorithm, but also takes advantage of the strong optimization ability and fast convergence speed of the SSA. Finally, this study screened out the key input factors by adopting the MIV method to simplify the structure of the BP algorithm and achieve a high prediction accuracy. In this study, Beijing Subway Line 4, Wuhan Metro Line 2, and Chengdu Metro Line 1 were selected as case study sites. The results showed that the linear correlations between influencing factors and ticket price for the PPP subway system service were weak, which indicated the need for using nonlinear analysis methods such as the BP algorithm. Compared with other prediction methods (the price adjustment method based on PPP contract, the traditional BP algorithm, the BP neural network improved by the genetic algorithm, the BP algorithm improved by the particle swarm optimization, and the support vector machine), the model proposed in this paper showed better prediction accuracy and calculation stability.

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Assessment of machine learning, time series, response surface methodology and empirical models in prediction of global solar radiation

Cited by 88 publications

References 30 publications

ANN Based Prediction of Engine Performance and Exhaust Emission Responses of a CI Engine Powered By Ternary Blends

ANN Based Prediction of Engine Performance and Exhaust Emission Responses of a CI Engine Powered By Ternary Blends

A Comparative Study of Regression Models and Meteorological Parameters to Estimate the Global Solar Radiation on a Horizontal Surface for Baghdad City, Iraq

Study on an Intelligent Prediction Method of Ticket Price in a Subway System with Public-Private Partnership

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