Assessment of impact of climate change on Rhododendrons in Sikkim Himalayas using Maxent modelling: limitations and challenges

Abstract

Integration of climate change aspects in biodiversity management is one the fundamental requirements for long term biodiversity conservation. The explicit modelling of the biodiversity in response to climate change is the primary requirement for making any adaptation strategy. With Himalayan ecosystem in mind and Rhododendron as the species of concern, the current paper models the biogeography of the genera Rhododendron which are found intermixed in their spatial distribution in Sikkim Himalayas, mainly tree varieties, in response to climate change. The modelling algorithm used in the paper is Maxent (maximum entropy) which has estimated the target probability distribution by finding the probability distribution of Maxent. After projection of modelled bioclimatic layers to future climate scenario of SRES-A1B in Maxent, it was found that the suitable bioclimatic envelope for Rhododendron has shrunk considerably under the envisaged climate change scenario. The results on extent and locations of Rhododendron distributions in both the current and future climate scenarios provide a deep insight to the conservation planners about the kind of strategy that needs to be adopted for conserving Rhododendrons in the face of climate change. The challenges observed while doing this analysis highlight the gaps and set the agenda for further research to make the predictions of climate change driven impact on biodiversity scientifically more robust.

Do Himalayan treelines respond to recent climate change? An evaluation of sensitivity indicators

“…In the Himalaya, neither modelling approaches to predict the response of individual treeline systems nor modelling studies to project future geographic distribution of treeline tree species have been conducted so far. Recently, initial modelling studies with regard to environmental niches of the genus Rhododendron in Sikkim and Betula utilis in Uttarakhand have been published (Kumar, 2012;Singh et al, 2013).…”

Regional Scale Determinants of Nutrient Content of Soil in a Cold-Temperate Forest

“…The WorldClim data are collected from weather stations across the globe, which include altitude, temperature, and rainfall (period 1950-2000) [22]. In the present study, four bioclimatic variables (MAT, TS, MAP and PS) were considered to assess the current climatic conditions.…”

The charms and challenges of climate change biodiversity in a warming world

“…The model suggested that the distribution of both the species would tend to move in the direction of shorter cold seasons. Kumar (2012) has analysed the distribution of Rhododendron species in climate change scenario and pointed out that climate data reliability holds the key to such studies in hilly mountainous terrains.…”