Assessment of hydrology and nutrient losses in a changing climate in a subsurface-drained watershed

Mehan, Sushant; Aggarwal, Ruchir; Gitau, Margaret W.; Flanagan, D. C.; Wallace, Carlington W.; Frankenberger, Jane

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.06.314

Cited by 37 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 92 publications

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“…Currently, water resources are suffering from a severe degradation process due to global climate change, demographic growth, the modification in the use of land, and overexploitation derived from economic development [88][89][90][91]. As a result, an increase in the competition for the available water will arise in the near future, which represents a threat to ensuring the resources necessary to guarantee the food supply [92,93].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Contribution of Irrigation Ponds to the Sustainability of Agriculture. A Review of Worldwide Research

et al. 2020

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The use of irrigation ponds has proved to be an efficient alternative for increasing the availability and quality of water resources for irrigation and contributing to the sustainability of agriculture. This article analyses the dynamics of worldwide research on this topic over the last two decades. To do this, a review including a qualitative systematic analysis and a quantitative bibliometric analysis was carried out on a sample of 951 articles. The results reveal that this line of research is becoming more relevant within agricultural research, particularly in recent years. The research in this topic has focused on the sustainable development of vulnerable regions, the contribution to the agronomic improvement of crops and farms, environmental impact assessment, the joint management of water resources, the restoration of groundwater bodies, and the use of rainfall. Gaps have been found in the literature with respect to the capacity of irrigation ponds to cover the irrigation needs in different agricultural contexts, the perceptions and attitudes of farmers towards the use of irrigation ponds, and the economic–financial feasibility of these systems.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Contribution of Irrigation Ponds to the Sustainability of Agriculture. A Review of Worldwide Research

et al. 2020

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“…They found an average decrease of about 9% in subsurface drainage and recommended controlled drainage to retain more water in the soil profile as a BMP for crop production. In the same basin [17], using the SWAT model found an increase in subsurface drain flow but a decrease in P load from drains. On the other hand, relatively few field-scale studies, which use field data to first calibrate and then validate a tile-flow model to assess climate change impacts have been attempted in the region.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 92%

Assessment of Impacts of Climate Change on Tile Discharge and Nitrogen Yield Using the DRAINMOD Model

et al. 2020

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The detrimental impacts of agricultural subsurface tile flows and their associated pollutants on water quality is a major environmental issue in the Great Lakes region and many other places globally. A strong understanding of water quality indicators along with the contribution of tile-drained agriculture to water contamination is necessary to assess and reduce a significant source of non-point source pollution. In this study, DRAINMOD, a field-scale hydrology and water quality model, was applied to assess the impact of future climatic change on depth to water table, tile flow and associated nitrate loss from an 8.66 ha agricultural field near Londesborough, in Southwestern Ontario, Canada. The closest available climate data from a weather station approximately 10 km from the field site was used by the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry (MNRF) to generate future predictions of daily precipitation and maximum and minimum air temperatures required to create the weather files for DRAINMOD. Of the 28 models applied by MNRF, three models (CGCM3T47-Run5, GFDLCM2.0, and MIROC3.2hires) were selected based on the frequency of the models recommended for use in Ontario with SRA1B emission scenario. Results suggested that simulated tile flows and evapotranspiration (ET) in the 2071–2100 period are expected to increase by 7% and 14% compared to 1960–1990 period. Results also suggest that under future climates, significant increases in nitrate losses (about 50%) will occur along with the elevated tile flows. This work suggests that climate change will have a significant effect on field hydrology and water quality in tile-drained agricultural regions.

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“…Using time series without knowing these changes could result in misleading conclusions (Mehan et al, 2019). Rather, modellers should choose calibration and validation time periods based on knowledge of how the hydrological conditions have changed over time.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Choosing an arbitrary calibration period for hydrologic models: How much does it influence water balance simulations?

Myers

Ficklin

Robeson

et al. 2021

Hydrological Processes

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The selection of calibration and validation time periods in hydrologic modelling is often done arbitrarily. Nonstationarity can lead to an optimal parameter set for one period which may not accurately simulate another. However, there is still much to be learned about the responses of hydrologic models to nonstationary conditions. We investigated how the selection of calibration and validation periods can influence water balance simulations. We calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool hydrologic models with observed streamflow for three United States watersheds (St. Joseph River of Indiana/Michigan, Escambia River of Florida/Alabama, and Cottonwood Creek of California), using time period splits for calibration/validation. We found that the choice of calibration period (with different patterns of observed streamflow, precipitation, and air temperature) influenced the parameter sets, leading to dissimilar simulations of water balance components. In the Cottonwood Creek watershed, simulations of 50-year mean January streamflow varied by 32%, because of lower winter precipitation and air temperature in earlier calibration periods on calibrated parameters, which impaired the ability for models calibrated to earlier periods to simulate later periods. Peaks of actual evapotranspiration for this watershed also shifted from April to May due to different parameter values depending on the calibration period's winter air temperatures. In the St. Joseph and Escambia River watersheds, adjustments of the runoff curve number parameter could vary by 10.7% and 20.8%, respectively, while 50-year mean monthly surface runoff simulations could vary by 23%-37% and 169%-209%, depending on the observed streamflow and precipitation of the chosen calibration period. It is imperative that calibration and validation time periods are chosen selectively instead of arbitrarily, for instance using change point detection methods, and that the calibration periods are appropriate for the goals of the study, considering possible broad effects of nonstationary time series on water balance simulations. It is also crucial that the hydrologic modelling community improves existing calibration and validation practices to better include nonstationary processes.

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Assessment of hydrology and nutrient losses in a changing climate in a subsurface-drained watershed

Cited by 37 publications

References 92 publications

Contribution of Irrigation Ponds to the Sustainability of Agriculture. A Review of Worldwide Research

Contribution of Irrigation Ponds to the Sustainability of Agriculture. A Review of Worldwide Research

Assessment of Impacts of Climate Change on Tile Discharge and Nitrogen Yield Using the DRAINMOD Model

Choosing an arbitrary calibration period for hydrologic models: How much does it influence water balance simulations?

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