Assessment of Future Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources of Upper Sind River Basin, India Using SWAT Model

Narsimlu, B.; Gosain, A. K.; Chahar, Bhagu R.

doi:10.1007/s11269-013-0371-7

Cited by 157 publications

(61 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…Radermacher and Tomassini 2012). To increase the range of future projections, the GCM can also be run with different greenhouse gas concentrations (Nakicenovic et al 2000;Moss et al 2010). …”

Section: Uncertainties Related To Climate Change Simulations and Hydrmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Evaluating the Importance of Non-Unique Behavioural Parameter Sets on Surface Water Quality Variables under Climate Change Conditions in a Mesoscale Agricultural Watershed

Mehdi

Schulz

Ludwig

et al. 2017

Water Resour Manage

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The parameter uncertainty in the eco-hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was estimated using non-unique parameter sets for the Altmühl watershed (Bavaria, Germany). The Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Algorithm (SUFI-2) was used to calibrate SWAT. The non-unique parameter sets found were subsequently applied to SWAT concurrently with climate change simulations to determine the variables of streamflow, nitrate nitrogen (NO 3 − -N) and total phosphorus (TP). A suite of seven bias corrected climate change simulations provided reference and future climate data. The nonunique behavioural parameter sets that met an objective function of NSE >0.6 during calibration were applied to SWAT with the reference climate and with the future climate simulations. The best parameter set was also propagated through SWAT with each reference and future climate simulation in turn. Combining the non-unique behavioural parameter sets for estimating uncertainty bounds with an ensemble of climate change simulations led to a wider mean monthly spread (difference between maximum and minimum) of simulated NO 3 − -N and TP than using the best run with the future climate simulations. More monthly data was considered using the non-unique approach, resulting in statistical significances for more Water Resour Manage (2018) months of the year and overall lower interquartile ranges. The study quantifies the non-unique behavioural parameter set contributions to the modelling prediction, which assists in making more informed decisions based on available knowledge, with its limitations, of the future simulations. We outline a simple approach that can easily be replicated for similar hydrological modelling studies.

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Section: Uncertainties Related To Climate Change Simulations and Hydrmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The global climate models available were based on projections using A2 or A1B greenhouse gas scenarios (Nakicenovic et al 2000). In the A2 scenario, global CO 2 emissions reach 29 GtC by 2100; this is an increase of more than four times the 1990 levels (6 GtC).…”

Section: Climate Simulation Ensemblesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating the Importance of Non-Unique Behavioural Parameter Sets on Surface Water Quality Variables under Climate Change Conditions in a Mesoscale Agricultural Watershed

Mehdi

Schulz

Ludwig

et al. 2017

Water Resour Manage

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“…The hydrologic cycle is recognized as subject to significant changes as a result of anthropogenic global warming [1][2][3][4][5]. As per IPCC AR5 estimates, the global average surface temperature will rise by 1.8-4.0 • C [6]; precipitation is expected to increase by 5%-20% over the period of 1990-2100, suggesting increasing floods on a widespread basis [7].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Contemporary and Future Characteristics of Precipitation Indices in the Kentucky River Basin

Chattopadhyay

Edwards

2017

Water

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Climatic variability can lead to large-scale alterations in the hydrologic cycle, some of which can be characterized in terms of indices involving precipitation depth, duration and frequency. This study evaluated the spatiotemporal behavior of precipitation indices over the Kentucky River watershed for both the baseline period of 1986-2015 and late-century time frame of 2070-2099. Historical precipitation data were collected from 16 weather stations in the watershed, while future rainfall time-series were obtained from an ensemble of 10 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global circulation models under two future emission pathways: Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. Annual trends in seven precipitation indices were analyzed: total precipitation on wet days (PRCPTOT), maximum length (in days) of dry and wet periods (CDD and CWD, respectively), number of days with precipitation depth ≥20 mm (R20mm), maximum five-day precipitation depth (RX5day), simple daily precipitation index (SDII) and standardized precipitation index (SPI, a measure of drought severity). Non-parametric Mann-Kendall test results indicated significant trends for only ≈11% of the station-index combinations, corresponding to generally increasing trends in PRCPTOT, CWD, R20mm and RX5day and negative trends for the others. Projected magnitudes for PRCPTOT, CDD, CWD, RX5day and SPI, indices associated with the macroweather regime, demonstrated general consistency with trends previously identified and indicated modest increases in PRCPTOT and CWD, slight decrease in CDD, mixed results for RX5day, and increased non-drought years in the late century relative to the baseline period. Late-century projections for the remaining indices (SDII, R20mm) demonstrated behavior counter to trends in the trends identified in the baseline period data, suggesting that these indices-which are more closely linked with the weather regime and daily GCM outputs-were relatively less robust.

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“…The first step before planning mitigation operations is to assess the impact of climate change on water resources at both local and regional scales. Narsimlu et al [1] carried out an assessment of climate change on Upper Sind River Basin and recorded that average streamflow could increase by 93.5% by the end of 21st century during monsoons. Similarly, Vaghefi et al [2] concluded from their research that climate change can cause both positive and negative impact in the Karkheh River Basin in the semi-arid region of Iran.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrological Processes of a Small Agricultural Watershed

Mehan

Kannan

Neupane

et al. 2016

Climate

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Abstract:Weather extremes and climate variability directly impact the hydrological cycle influencing agricultural productivity. The issues related to climate change are of prime concern for every nation as its implications are posing negative impacts on society. In this study, we used three climate change scenarios to simulate the impact on local hydrology of a small agricultural watershed. The three emission scenarios from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios, of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 analyzed in this study were A2 (high emission), A1B (medium emission), and B1 (low emission). A process based hydrologic model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was calibrated and validated for the Skunk Creek Watershed located in eastern South Dakota. The model performance coefficients revealed a strong correlation between simulated and observed stream flow at both monthly and daily time step. The Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency for monthly model performace was 0.87 for the calibration period and 0.76 for validation period. The future climate scenarios were built for the mid-21st century time period ranging from 2046 to 2065. The future climate data analysis showed an increase in temperatures between 2.2 • C to 3.3 • C and a decrease in precipitation from 1.8% to 4.5% expected under three different climate change scenarios. A sharp decline in stream flow (95.92%-96.32%), run-off (83.46%-87.00%), total water yield (90.67%-91.60%), soil water storage (89.99%-92.47%), and seasonal snow melt (37.64%-43.06%) are predicted to occur by the mid-21st century. In addition, an increase in evapotranspirative losses (2%-3%) is expected to occur within the watershed when compared with the baseline period. Overall, these results indicate that the watershed is highly susceptible to hydrological and agricultural drought due to limited water availability. These results are limited to the available climate projections, and future refinement in projected climatic change data, at a finer regional scale would provide greater clarity. Nevertheless, models like SWAT are excellent means to test best management practices to mitigate the projected dry conditions in small agricultural waterhseds.

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Assessment of Future Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources of Upper Sind River Basin, India Using SWAT Model

Cited by 157 publications

References 38 publications

Evaluating the Importance of Non-Unique Behavioural Parameter Sets on Surface Water Quality Variables under Climate Change Conditions in a Mesoscale Agricultural Watershed

Evaluating the Importance of Non-Unique Behavioural Parameter Sets on Surface Water Quality Variables under Climate Change Conditions in a Mesoscale Agricultural Watershed

Contemporary and Future Characteristics of Precipitation Indices in the Kentucky River Basin

Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrological Processes of a Small Agricultural Watershed

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