Assessment of future change in intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves for Southern Quebec using the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM)

Mailhot, Alain; Duchesne, Sophie; Caya, Daniel; Talbot, Guillaume

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.09.019

Cited by 196 publications

(127 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…Bonnin et al [58] found that the GEV probability distribution produced the best fit for the Clark County region. Other studies, such as Kharin and Zwiers [59] and Mailhot et al [30], also used the GEV distribution method to calculate extreme-rainfall storms by using climate model datasets. The GEV distribution method is a commonly accepted approach in the nonstationarity study of extreme flows owing to the skewed nature of annual flow maxima and the ability to include covariates in the parameters of distribution [60][61][62][63][64].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…historic precipitation are converted to the point-historic precipitation. In the analysis of future extreme rainfall, areal reduction factors are assumed to be the same for a given region, duration, and return period [30].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Previous studies on climate change, Mailhot and Duchesne [20], Wernstedt and Carlet [22], Mailhot et al [30], Grum et al [35], He et al [36], and Brown [37] have suggested the replacement of the current design standard by a simple and robust method that includes the effects of climate change. However, these studies are limited for the following reasons.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Understanding the Effects of Climate Change on Urban Stormwater Infrastructures in the Las Vegas Valley

2016

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Abstract:The intensification of the hydrological cycle due to climate change entails more frequent and intense rainfall. As a result, urban water systems will be disproportionately affected by the climate change, especially in such urban areas as Las Vegas, which concentrates its population, infrastructure, and economic activity. Proper design and management of stormwater facilities are needed to attenuate the severe effects of extreme rainfall events. The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program is developing multiple high-resolution projected-climate data from different combinations of regional climate models and global climate models. The objective of this study was to evaluate existing stormwater facilities of a watershed within the Las Vegas Valley in southern Nevada by using a robust design method for the projected climate. The projected climate change was incorporated into the model at the 100 year return period with 6 h duration depths, using a statistical regionalization analysis method. Projection from different sets of climate model combinations varied substantially. Gridded reanalysis data were used to assess the performance of the climate models. An existing Hydrologic Engineering Center's Hydrological Modeling System (HEC-HMS) model was implemented using the projected change in standard design storm. Hydrological simulation using HEC-HMS showed exceedances of existing stormwater facilities that were designed under the assumption of stationarity design depth. Recognizing climate change and taking an immediate approach in assessing the city's vulnerability by using proper strategic planning would benefit the urban sector and improve the quality of life.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Understanding the Effects of Climate Change on Urban Stormwater Infrastructures in the Las Vegas Valley

2016

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“…The Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution was used and parameters were estimated by the L-moments method (Hosking and Wallis, 1997). Precipitation intensities associated to 2-, 5-, 10-, and 20-year return periods were estimated (Mailhot et al, 2007, for details on the methodology).…”

Section: Experimental Setup and Statistical Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Future changes in intense precipitation over Canada assessed from multi‐model NARCCAP ensemble simulations

Mailhot

Beauregard

Talbot

et al. 2011

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Annual maxima (AM) series of precipitation from 15 simulations of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) have been analysed for gridpoints covering Canada and the northern part of United States. The NARCCAP Regional Climate Models' simulations have been classified into the following three groups based on the driving data used at the RCMs boundaries: (1) NCEP (6 simulations); (2) GCM-historical (5 simulations); and (3) GCM-future (4 simulations). Historical simulations are representative of the 1968-2000 period while future simulations cover the 2041-2070 period. A reference common grid has been defined to ease the comparison. Multi-model average intensities of AM precipitation of 6-, 12-, 24-, 72-, and 120-h for 2-, 5-, 10-, and 20-year return periods have been estimated for each simulation group. Comparison of results from NCEP and GCM-historical groups shows good overall agreement in terms of spatial distribution of AM intensities. Comparison of GCM-future and GCM-historical groups clearly shows widespread increases with median relative changes across all gridpoints ranging from 12 to 18% depending on durations and return periods. Fourteen Canadian climatic regions have been used to define regional projections and average regional changes in intense precipitation have been estimated for each duration and return period. Uncertainties on these regional values, resulting from inter-model variability, were also estimated. Results suggest that inland regions (e.g. Ontario and more specifically Southern Ontario, the Prairies, Southern Quebec) will experience the largest relative increases in AM intensities while coastal regions (e.g. Atlantic Provinces and the West Coast) will experience the smallest ones. These projections are most valuable inputs for the assessment of future impact of climate change on water infrastructures and the development of more efficient adaptation strategies.

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“…Climate change is expected to result in changes in precipitation patterns, intensity, and extremes. Some global climate modelling suggests that in a warmer world, increases in extreme precipitation will be larger than increases in mean precipitation (Mailhot et al, 2007;Bates et al, 2008), particularly in wetter areas such as the west coast of Canada. More frequent heavy precipitation events are expected to increase excess rainfall amounts as a result of climate change (Bates et al, 2008;Mailhot et al, 2010) increasing the risk of flash floods and urban flooding.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends and Variability in Extreme Rainfall Events in British Columbia

Burn¹,

Mansour²,

Zhang³

et al. 2011

Canadian Water Resources Journal

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This paper analyzes hourly rainfall data from a collection of tipping bucket rain gauges in British Columbia. The hourly rainfall data are used to define peaks over threshold (POT) rainfall events for durations of 1, 2, 6, 12 and 24 hours. This database is then used to define, on an annual basis, the number of over threshold events, the average magnitude of the over threshold events, and the largest over threshold event. Trend analysis is conducted for these three variables for each duration and for several common analysis periods drawn from the period 1966 to 2005. The identification and estimation of trends is conducted using the Mann-Kendall nonparametric test for trend. The global, or field, significance of the trend results is established using a bootstrap resampling approach. The research reveals generally increasing trends in extreme rainfall, especially for the summer season and for the short duration rainfall events.

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Assessment of future change in intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves for Southern Quebec using the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM)

Cited by 196 publications

References 53 publications

Understanding the Effects of Climate Change on Urban Stormwater Infrastructures in the Las Vegas Valley

Understanding the Effects of Climate Change on Urban Stormwater Infrastructures in the Las Vegas Valley

Future changes in intense precipitation over Canada assessed from multi‐model NARCCAP ensemble simulations

Trends and Variability in Extreme Rainfall Events in British Columbia

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