Assessment of Folsom Lake response to historical and potential future climate scenarios

Yao, Haiyuan; Georgakakos, Aris P.

doi:10.1016/s0022-1694(01)00418-8

Cited by 165 publications

(106 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…These results also show evidence of teleconnections between oceanic indices and hydrologic variability, which could perhaps lead to improvements in mid-range (up to 3-6 months) streamflow forecast capabilities and provide useful insights for water resource managers in making their systems less vulnerable to climate change and variability in the western states (Hamlet et al 2002;Wood and Lettenmaier 2006;Yao and Georgakakos 2001).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 66%

Potential extents for ENSO-driven hydrologic drought forecasts in the United States

et al. 2009

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The relationship between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and hydrologic variability in the United States is investigated using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF)/Principal Component Analysis (PCA). The multivariate ENSO index (MEI) is utilized to identify strong coherences associated with multiple months (1-, 2-, 4-, 6-, 12-, 24-, 48-month) of the Log-Standardized Hydrologic Drought Index (LSHDI) in the conterminous states for the period 1950-2005. Based on 56 years of monthly streamflow data for 102 forecast climate divisions, this research explores the spatial and temporal variation of hydrologic responses corresponding to ENSO events. Preliminary results show that a potential predictor of the dominant streamflow modes in the northern Great Plains is identified from streamflows in western Arizona. Also, positive relationships between hydrologic drought and El Niño were found in the Pacific Northwest (Washington, Oregon, and northern California), whereas negative relationships were detected in southern California and the northern Great Plains. These findings will provide useful insights to help improve streamflow forecast potential and capabilities, and minimize the impacts of hydrologic events (e.g. floods and droughts) associated with ENSO events.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 66%

Potential extents for ENSO-driven hydrologic drought forecasts in the United States

et al. 2009

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“…Multi-purpose dam-management, for example based on dynamic programming, could be envisaged to circumvent these limitations (e.g. Faber and Stedinger, 2001;Yao and Georgakakos, 2001;Turgeon, 2005).…”

Section: Challenges In Decision-making Based On Hydrometeorological Fmentioning

confidence: 99%

An operational hydrological ensemble prediction system for the city of Zurich (Switzerland): skill, case studies and scenarios

Addor

Jaun

Fundel

et al. 2011

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

115

116

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Abstract. The Sihl River flows through Zurich, Switzerland's most populated city, for which it represents the largest flood threat. To anticipate extreme discharge events and provide decision support in case of flood risk, a hydrometeorological ensemble prediction system (HEPS) was launched operationally in 2008. This model chain relies on limitedarea atmospheric forecasts provided by the deterministic model COSMO-7 and the probabilistic model COSMO-LEPS. These atmospheric forecasts are used to force a semidistributed hydrological model (PREVAH), coupled to a hydraulic model (FLORIS). The resulting hydrological forecasts are eventually communicated to the stakeholders involved in the Sihl discharge management. This fully operational setting provides a real framework with which to compare the potential of deterministic and probabilistic discharge forecasts for flood mitigation.To study the suitability of HEPS for small-scale basins and to quantify the added-value conveyed by the probability information, a reforecast was made for the period June 2007 to December 2009 for the Sihl catchment (336 km 2 ). Several metrics support the conclusion that the performance gain can be of up to 2 days lead time for the catchment considered. Brier skill scores show that overall COSMO-LEPS-based hydrological forecasts outperforms their COSMO-7-based counterparts for all the lead times and event intensities considered. The small size of the Sihl catchment does not prevent skillful discharge forecasts, but makes them particularlyCorrespondence to: N. Addor (nans.addor@geo.uzh.ch) dependent on correct precipitation forecasts, as shown by comparisons with a reference run driven by observed meteorological parameters. Our evaluation stresses that the capacity of the model to provide confident and reliable mid-term probability forecasts for high discharges is limited. The two most intense events of the study period are investigated utilising a novel graphical representation of probability forecasts, and are used to generate high discharge scenarios. They highlight challenges for making decisions on the basis of hydrological predictions, and indicate the need for a tool to be used in addition to forecasts to compare the different mitigation actions possible in the Sihl catchment. No definitive conclusion on the model chain capacity to forecast flooding events endangering the city of Zurich could be drawn because of the under-sampling of extreme events. Further research on the form of the reforecasts needed to infer on floods associated to return periods of several decades, centuries, is encouraged.

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“…Several CALVIN studies that explore a variety of wet and dry climate warming scenarios indicate that California's water supply sector has a fair ability to adapt to climate warming Tanaka et al 2006;Medellin-Azuara et al 2008;Connell 2009). Even with significant population growth and urbanization, it appears to be physically possible to 7 Some simulation and optimization studies have made modest attempts to adapt system operating rules to a changed climate (Yao and Georgakakos 2001;VanRheenen et al 2004;Vicuna 2007;Medellin-Azuara et al 2008). 8 Some preliminary local studies also have been done for the Inland Empire Utilities Agency (Groves, et al 2008), East Bay Municipal Utilities District (EBMUD), and Metropolitan Water District of Southern California using simulation models.…”

Section: Water Supplymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Fissekis (2008) found that even modest warming and increases in precipitation could create dangerous flood conditions at some Sacramento Valley reservoirs. Yao and Georgakakos (2001) found that incorporating improved flood forecasting into reservoir operation at Folsom Dam has good potential to improve flood and water supply operations. Zhu et al (2007) conducted a preliminary examination of how the levee system on the Lower American River, protecting parts of the Sacramento metropolitan area, should optimally adapt to several combinations of changes in climate and urbanization over the next 150 years.…”

Section: Flood Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Adapting California’s water management to climate change

2011

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California faces significant water management challenges from climate change, affecting water supply, aquatic ecosystems, and flood risks. Fortunately, the state also possesses adaptation tools and institutional capabilities that can limit vulnerability to changing conditions. Water supply managers have begun using underground storage, water transfers, conservation, recycling, and desalination to meet changing demands. These same tools are promising options for responding to a wide range of climate changes. Likewise, many staples of flood management-including reservoir operations, levees, bypasses, insurance, and land-use regulation-are available for the challenges of increased floods. Yet actions are also needed to improve response capacity. For water supply, a central issue is the management of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, where new conveyance, habitat investments, and regulations are needed to sustain water supplies and protect endangered fish species. For flood management, among the least-examined aspects of water management with climate change, needed reforms include forward-looking reservoir operation planning and floodplain mapping, less restrictive rules for raising local funds, and improved public information on flood risks. For water quality, an urgent priority is better science. Although local agencies are central players, adaptation will require strong-willed state leadership to shape institutions, incentives, and regulations capable of responding to change. Federal cooperation often will be essential.

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Assessment of Folsom Lake response to historical and potential future climate scenarios

Cited by 165 publications

References 13 publications

Potential extents for ENSO-driven hydrologic drought forecasts in the United States

Potential extents for ENSO-driven hydrologic drought forecasts in the United States

An operational hydrological ensemble prediction system for the city of Zurich (Switzerland): skill, case studies and scenarios

Adapting California’s water management to climate change

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