Assessment of Ecosystem Service Value and Social Costs of Carbon Emissions in Island Ecosystems: A Case Study of Zhoushan Archipelago

Abstract

Addressing the contemporary challenges of mitigating and adapting to climate change, conserving biodiversity, and ensuring human well-being constitutes a central focus for humanity. These challenges, though often treated in isolation, are intricately interconnected, sharing common drivers. Current and future research emphasizes the pursuit of an integrated approach that minimizes trade-offs and fosters synergies among the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The nexus between ecosystem service value (ESV) and the social cost of carbon (SCC) is pivotal in informing national and governmental decisions regarding human well-being and climate change mitigation and adaptation, respectively. This study employs the Zhoushan Archipelago as a case study, exploring ESV and SCC dynamics from 2010 to 2020. An in-depth analysis of spatial development characteristics and the temporal and spatial correlation between ESV and SCC is conducted. The findings reveal an increase in Zhoushan Archipelago's land area from 2010 to 2015, stabilizing thereafter, with construction land exhibiting the most notable proportional growth. Carbon emissions were observed during the study period, with forests identified as the primary carbon sink, followed by mudflat and waterbody, while construction land contributed significantly to carbon emissions. Notably, the SCC in Zhoushan Archipelago increased by 2452%, contrasting with a modest 1.5% decrease in ESV during the study period. Global spatial correlation analysis demonstrated a significant positive correlation between ESV and SCC in Zhoushan Archipelago throughout the study period, validated by passing the P-value test. However, local spatial correlation analysis revealed a specific nature of the global spatial correlation between ESV and SCC in the island area. This nuanced understanding enhances our comprehension of the intricacies surrounding ESV and SCC dynamics, contributing valuable insights to the broader discourse on sustainable regional development, economic decarbonization, and human well-being improvement.