Assessment of current climate conditions changes in the territory of Ciscaucasia for the purposes of forecasting winter wheat yield

Abstract

Аim. Assessment of current climate changes in the territory of Ciscaucasia in order to predict the yield of winter wheat.Methods .Integral indicators of climatic conditions for agricultural production were employed. For the investigations, we selected five‐year periods for which the meteorological parameters were averaged, and to identify trends the data of specific five‐year periods were compared with the average value for the entireseries of observations (1960‐2020).Results. The deviation of precipitation in April was highest in 2011‐2015, when it increased by 22 mm, and in 1986‐1990 and 1991‐1995, when it decreased by 15 and 10 mm respectively. In Eastern Ciscaucasia,where conditions are more arid than in the Western and Central regions, in both the rise in air temperature and the amount of precipitation, especially in April and May, increased in the 21stcentury for the entire period of active vegetation.Conclusion.It was established that the value of the hydrothermal coefficient practically did not change during the 1960‐2020 period. In the late 1990s and early 2000s, there was an increase in productivity against the background of a relatively high level of annual precipitation and this stability is confirmed at the present time. There is a very close relationship between natural and climatic factors and the level of winter wheat yield.

Productivity of Winter Wheat Cultivated by Direct Seeding: Measuring the Effect of Hydrothermal Coefficient in the Arid Zone of Central Fore-Caucasus

“…Productivity models of winter wheat were established based on the types of drought and forecrop (Table 10). It is commonly accepted that abnormal drought effects pose a great threat to the stability of crop yields [30,80,[103][104][105]. Many scholars, including Dar et al [31], Demidov et al [104], Fenni et al [57], and Flower et al [106] agree that without taking appropriate adaptation measures, both yields and areas under grain crops will continue decreasing due to the progressing climate change.…”

“…This measure has been widely applied as a principal quantitative indicator of the ratio of humidity and temperature in studying the relationships between the amount of precipitation in the time period, when average day temperature exceeds +10°C, and the sum of temperature, in degrees in the same period [18,79]. Volkov et al [80] and Pismen-…”

“…This measure has been widely applied as a principal quantitative indicator of the ratio of humidity and temperature in studying the relationships between the amount of precipitation in the time period, when average day temperature exceeds +10 • C, and the sum of temperature, in degrees in the same period [18,79]. Volkov et al [80] and Pismennaya et al [20] specifically demonstrated the employability of the coefficient in studying the influence of annual precipitation on the stability of winter wheat yields across arid and semiarid zones in Caucasus. HTC is calculated as follows (1):…”