Assessment of COVID-19 risk and prevention effectiveness among spectators of mass gathering events

Yasutaka, Tetsuo; Murakami, Michio; Iwasaki, Yoshiaki; Naito, Wataru; Onishi, Masaki; Fujita, Tsukasa; Imoto, Seiya

doi:10.1016/j.mran.2022.100215

Cited by 12 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…In another study, we evaluated the effects of vaccine-testing packages ( Murakami et al, 2022a ). We confirmed the validity of the model based on the fact that no newly-infected individuals were observed among the participants of professional baseball and soccer events in the fiscal year 2020 ( Yasutaka et al, 2022 ); however, this validation has limitations due to the unavailability of active testing after these events. Furthermore, the model has been applied only to events held in Japan.…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 72%

“…Both events were held during the emergence of the Delta variant. Figure 1 shows the locations of target events and other events in previous studies regarding COVID-19 infection risk at mass gathering events ( Heese et al, 2022 ; Murakami et al, 2021 ; Revollo et al, 2021 ; Sami et al, 2022 ; Shukla et al, 2021 ; Smith et al, 2022 ; SRLF Trial Group, 2022 ; Suñer et al, 2022 ; Yasutaka et al, 2022 ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“… The design, type of events, and key findings in previous studies are described ( Heese et al, 2022 ; Murakami et al, 2021 ; Revollo et al, 2021 ; Sami et al, 2022 ; Shukla et al, 2021 ; Smith et al, 2022 ; SRLF Trial Group, 2022 ; Suñer et al, 2022 ; Yasutaka et al, 2022 ). The map was created by using Arc GIS (Esri Japan; https://www.esrij.com/ ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this study, we extended a previously established model ( Murakami et al, 2022a ; Murakami et al, 2021 ; Yasutaka et al, 2022 ) to music festivals. Briefly, by considering the actual size of the venue, number of spectators, and P 0 , we calculated the exposure dose related to the behavioral patterns in the event (see details below) and then estimated the number of infected individuals and infection risk.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We previously developed an environmental exposure model to assess the COVID-19 risk among spectators at the opening ceremony of the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games and evaluated the effectiveness of the implementation of control measures, including mask-wearing, physical distance, ventilation, disinfection, and handwashing ( Murakami et al, 2021 ). Additionally, we conducted parametric studies to evaluate the effects of the number of spectators, capacity proportions, and infection prevalence by extending the model to other sporting events ( Yasutaka et al, 2022 ). In another study, we evaluated the effects of vaccine-testing packages ( Murakami et al, 2022a ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Development of a COVID-19 risk assessment model for participants at outdoor music festivals: evaluation of the validity and control measure effectiveness based on two actual events in Japan and Spain

Murakami

Fujita

et al. 2022

PeerJ

Self Cite

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We developed an environmental exposure model to estimate the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) risk among participants at outdoor music festivals and validated the model using two real events—one in Japan (Event 1) and one in Spain (Event 2). Furthermore, we considered a hypothetical situation in which Event 1 was held but enhanced measures were implemented to evaluate the extent to which the risk could be reduced by additional infection control measures, such as negative antigen tests on the day of the event, wearing of masks, disinfection of environmental surfaces, and vaccination. Among 7,392 participants, the total number of already- and newly-infected individuals who participated in Event 1 according to the new model was 47.0 (95% uncertainty interval: 12.5–185.5), which is in good agreement with the reported value (45). The risk of infection at Event 2 (1.98 × 10−2; 95% uncertainty interval: 0.55 × 10−2–6.39 × 10−2), calculated by the model in this study, was also similar to the estimated value in the previous epidemiological study (1.25 × 10−2). These results for the two events in different countries highlighted the validity of the model. Among the additional control measures in the hypothetical Event 1, vaccination, mask-wearing, and disinfection of surfaces were determined to be effective. Based on the combination of all measures, a 94% risk reduction could be achieved. In addition to setting a benchmark for an acceptable number of newly-infected individuals at the time of an event, the application of this model will enable us to determine whether it is necessary to implement additional measures, limit the number of participants, or refrain from holding an event.

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Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 72%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Development of a COVID-19 risk assessment model for participants at outdoor music festivals: evaluation of the validity and control measure effectiveness based on two actual events in Japan and Spain

Murakami

Fujita

et al. 2022

PeerJ

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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Craic, Ceoil agus COVID-19: the impact of ‘Fleadh Cheoil na hÉireann’ on presentations to the local emergency department

Guinness,

Corcoran,

O’Grady

et al. 2024

Ir J Med Sci

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Effectiveness of cloth face masks to prevent viral spread: a meta-analysis

Zeilinger,

Brunevskaya,

Wurzer

et al. 2023

Journal of Public Health

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Background The effectiveness of cloth face masks to prevent viral spread has not yet been conclusively established. In this meta-analysis, we evaluate their effectiveness in comparison to standard medical/surgical and N95-typed masks against viral spread. Methods We identified literature through a systematic search in three databases and meta-analytically synthesized relevant studies by means of random-effects as well as multilevel modelling. Results Twelve studies comprising k = 28 effect sizes (N = 338) were included. Medical/surgical and N95-typed masks outperformed cloth masks, yielding a large effect (g = 1.40). This effect remained robust when data were grouped according to comparisons with medical/surgical masks (g = 1.25) and N95-typed masks (g = 1.29). However, effects were differentiated according to mask fit, indicating reversals of signs when cloth mask effects were compared with ill-fitting medical/surgical and N95-typed masks (gs = −12.50 and − 10.90, respectively). Conclusions Cloth face masks were found to have significantly poorer filtering performance than medical/surgical masks and N95 masks, but only if non-cloth masks were properly fitted. Our results illustrate the necessity of using well-fitting medical/surgical or N95-typed masks to prevent viral spread, although some allowance should be made in circumstances where higher compliance with cloth mask mandates are expected.

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Assessment of COVID-19 risk and prevention effectiveness among spectators of mass gathering events

Cited by 12 publications

References 30 publications

Development of a COVID-19 risk assessment model for participants at outdoor music festivals: evaluation of the validity and control measure effectiveness based on two actual events in Japan and Spain

Development of a COVID-19 risk assessment model for participants at outdoor music festivals: evaluation of the validity and control measure effectiveness based on two actual events in Japan and Spain

Craic, Ceoil agus COVID-19: the impact of ‘Fleadh Cheoil na hÉireann’ on presentations to the local emergency department

Effectiveness of cloth face masks to prevent viral spread: a meta-analysis

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