Assessment of climate extremes in future projections downscaled by multiple statistical downscaling methods over Pakistan

Ali, Shaukat; Eum, Hyung‐Il; Cho, Jaepil; Li, Dan; Khan, Firdos; Dairaku, Koji; Shrestha, Madan L.; Hwang, Syewoon; Nasim, Wajid; Khan, Imtiaz Ali; Fahad, Shah

doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.02.009

Cited by 109 publications

(71 citation statements)

References 59 publications

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“…The dominant P seasons of the region are monsoon and westerlies, which occur during summer and winter seasons, altogether driving the local hydrological cycle [46,61]. The recent warming hiatus of the globe appeared to be impacting the hydrometeorological cycle of Pakistan [27,64], with apparent changes in P [46,65].…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Trend in Extreme Precipitation Indices Based on Long Term In Situ Precipitation Records over Pakistan

Bhatti

Wang

Ullah

et al. 2020

Water

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Assessing the long-term precipitation changes is of utmost importance for understanding the impact of climate change. This study investigated the variability of extreme precipitation events over Pakistan on the basis of daily precipitation data from 51 weather stations from 1980-2016. The non-parametric Mann–Kendall, Sen’s slope estimator, least squares method, and two-tailed simple t-test methods were used to assess the trend in eight precipitation extreme indices. These indices were wet days (R1 ≥1 mm), heavy precipitation days (R10 ≥ 10 mm), very heavy precipitation days (R20 ≥ 20 mm), severe precipitation (R50 ≥ 50 mm), very wet days (R95p) defining daily precipitation ≥ 95 percentile, extremely wet days (R99p) defining daily precipitation ≥ 99 percentile, annual total precipitation in wet days (PRCPTOT), and mean precipitation amount on wet days as simple daily intensity index (SDII). The study is unique in terms of using high stations’ density, extended temporal coverage, advanced statistical techniques, and additional extreme indices. Furthermore, this study is the first of its kind to detect abrupt changes in the temporal trend of precipitation extremes over Pakistan. The results showed that the spatial distribution of trends in different precipitation extreme indices over the study region increased as a whole; however, the monsoon and westerlies humid regions experienced a decreasing trend of extreme precipitation indices during the study period. The results of the sequential Mann–Kendall (SqMK) test showed that all precipitation extremes exhibited abrupt dynamic changes in temporal trend during the study period; however, the most frequent mutation points with increasing tendency were observed during 2011 and onward. The results further illustrated that the linear trend of all extreme indices showed an increasing tendency from 1980- 2016. Similarly, for elevation, most of the precipitation extremes showed an inverse relationship, suggesting a decrease of precipitation along the latitudinal extent of the country. The spatiotemporal variations in precipitation extremes give a possible indication of the ongoing phenomena of climate change and variability that modified the precipitation regime of Pakistan. On the basis of the current findings, the study recommends that future studies focus on underlying physical and natural drivers of precipitation variability over the study region.

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Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Trend in Extreme Precipitation Indices Based on Long Term In Situ Precipitation Records over Pakistan

Bhatti

Wang

Ullah

et al. 2020

Water

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“…In recent years, the periodicity, intensity and duration of extreme events have increased, and seemingly increased in the future (Ali et al 2019). In the context of climate change, the comprehensive effects of drought (Brito et al 2019;Pawłowicz and Masajada 2019), salinization (Brito et al 2019; Pawłowicz and Masajada 2019; Ruan and Teixeira 2011), high irradiance (Guidi et al 2019), low temperature (Megha et al 2018) and high temperature (Raja et al 2019; Tiwari and Yadav 2019) will be strengthened, and the adverse effects on plant growth and development will be further intensified to varying degrees.…”

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confidence: 99%

Important roles of glycinebetaine in stabilizing the structure and function of the photosystem II complex under abiotic stresses

Huang

Zuo

2020

Planta

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“…During the past century, global climate change, particularly the temperature increase has greatly impacted the hydrological processes and water circulation [1][2][3][4] . These variations not only result in disastrous consequences, but also have close linkages with variability of vegetation parameters 5,6 .…”

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Assessing the regional climate impact on terrestrial ecosystem over East Asia using coupled models with land use and land cover forcing during 1980–2010

Cao

et al. 2020

Sci Rep

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activities and climate change 11-13. However, existing studies focusing on the interaction between climate change and LULCC are mainly concentrated on the effects of the LULCC on regional climate change 5,14-19 , very few researches have been carried out on the issues about how the regional climate change influences LULCC. LULCC is a forcing impact on the surface heat fluxes, which leads to the climate changes at different spatial and temporal scales, and vice versa 20. Sivakumar 21 analyzed the two-way interactions between climate and desertification, and concluded that the variations in land degradation over the drylands mainly result from the climatic changes and human activities. During 1986-2003 in India, the enhanced increasing trend in meteorological conditions, especially temperature and precipitation, results in the increasing wasteland, uncultivated land and water body, but the decreases occur in the cultivated land. In addition, the decrease in forest may be attributed to the increase in built-up land and population 22. In sub-humid, semi-arid and arid regions, the land degradation resulted from the loss of vegetation cover is largely caused by climate change, which can impact species succession, hydrologic cycles and soil quality, and therefore expands the dryland areas 23-26. Alves et al. 26 found that climate change plays an important role on the land degradation (desertification) in Brazil from 1950 to 2013. Rahman 23 reported that total rainfall has significant effects on the increases in agricultural land use diversity over Bangladesh during 1948-2008. In China, Feng et al. 24 conducted the quantitative assessments of interactions between climate change and desertification through long-term monitoring from 1983 to 2012, and suggested that climate change accounts for roughly 46.6% of the effects on normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and desertification. Shi and Chen 27 pointed out that temperature exhibits a stronger correlation with NDVI compared to rainfall by analyzing the linkage between LULCC and climate change in Yunnan Province. The influences of climate change on land use change over Poyang Lake district are discernible during 1985-2035, and the global warming may even amplify these complex interactions. Thus, the variations in forest, grassland and cropland are more sensitive to climate change than unused land 19,28. With ongoing climate change, desertification shows an accelerated trend under the RCP 8.5 scenario over middle and northern Middle Asia, Mongolian Plateau and northwestern China, except for Xinjiang. Moreover, the RCP 8.5 scenario triggers a more strengthened trend of desertification in comparison with the RCP 2.6 scenario 29. Based on 30-year NDVI, Liu et al. 30 confirmed the importance of temperature on the phenological processes in China, and also suggested the incorporation of precipitation and temperature into phenological models to improve their performances. Through reviewing literature on relevant responses of ecosystems to extreme climate events, Frank et ...

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Assessment of climate extremes in future projections downscaled by multiple statistical downscaling methods over Pakistan

Cited by 109 publications

References 59 publications

Trend in Extreme Precipitation Indices Based on Long Term In Situ Precipitation Records over Pakistan

Trend in Extreme Precipitation Indices Based on Long Term In Situ Precipitation Records over Pakistan

Important roles of glycinebetaine in stabilizing the structure and function of the photosystem II complex under abiotic stresses

Assessing the regional climate impact on terrestrial ecosystem over East Asia using coupled models with land use and land cover forcing during 1980–2010

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