Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Precipitation and Temperature in the Ghataprabha Sub-basin Using CMIP5 Models

Reddy, Nagendra; Patil, Nagraj S.; Nataraja, M.

doi:10.1007/s12647-021-00431-7

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…The additive approach takes the arithmetic difference between the modeled historical and modeled future data sets and then adds the difference to the observed data set, in contrast to the multiplicative approach, which takes the ratio of future simulated values and historical simulated values and multiplies it with the observed historical values. The additive approach is expected to produce a better estimate for absolute change in any variable, while the multiplicative approach does so for the relative change in values of any variable [56]. Since the research aims to provide an insight on the relative change in flooding peaks over the years, this study opts for the multiplicative approach of the CFM.…”

Section: Quantification Of Future Design Flowmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the Implication of Climate Change to Forecast Future Flood Using CMIP6 Climate Projections and HEC-RAS Modeling

2022

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Climate change has caused uncertainty in the hydrological pattern including weather change, precipitation fluctuations, and extreme temperature, thus triggering unforeseen natural tragedies such as hurricanes, flash flooding, heatwave and more. Because of these unanticipated events occurring all around the globe, the study of the influence of climate change on the alteration of flooding patterns has gained a lot of attention. This research study intends to provide an insight into how the future projected streamflow will affect the flooding-inundation extent by comparing the change in floodplain using both historical and future simulated scenarios. For the future projected data, the climate model Atmosphere/Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM) developed by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) is used, which illustrates that the flood is increasing in considering climate models. Furthermore, a comparison of the existing flood inundation map by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) study with the map generated by future projected streamflow data presents the entire inundation area in flood maps, implying the expansion area compared to FEMA needs to be considered in making emergency response plans. The effect of flooding in the inundation area from historical to future flow values, presented mathematically by a calculation of inundation extent percentage, infers that the considered watershed of Rock River is a flood-prone area. The goal is to provide insights on the importance of using the forecasted data for flood analysis and to offer the necessary background needed to strategize an emergency response plan for flood management.

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Section: Quantification Of Future Design Flowmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the Implication of Climate Change to Forecast Future Flood Using CMIP6 Climate Projections and HEC-RAS Modeling

2022

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“…2013). Recently, Reddy et al (2021) studied the performance of ten CMIP5, GCM models and Change Factor downscaling method over the Ghataprabha river sub-basin, India, and for the current study the selected GCM models were based on their results. Particularly, ve GCMs (BCC-CSM1.1 (m), MIROC-ESM, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, MIROC5, and NorESM1-M), which are relatively well performing and have daily simulations under four future scenarios , that is a moderate (RCP 4.5) and a high future (RCP 8.5)scenario are considered for the two future time slices 2010-2039 and 2070-2099 and 1961-1990 as a control period.…”

Section: Climate Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This study attempts to deliver the information about the future climate change impacts on the climate variables like precipitation, maximum and minimum in the Ghataprabha sub-basin, under different climate change scenarios. Reddy et al (2021) projected an increasing trend in the annual mean rainfall and temperature under future scenarios during the study period.The study also incorporates ensembling of GCMs as the climatic models developed by various organizations across the globe failed miserably in capturing the reality as they ignore the fundamental and intrinsic processes which dominate the climate.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change Impact Assessment on the Precipitation over the Ghataprabha Sub-Basin, India under Future Climate Change Scenarios

Reddy

Patil

Laddimath

2021

Preprint

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The present study has been taken up to quantify the possible impacts of the climate change on the climate variables using the outputs of global climate models datasets over the Ghataprabha Sub-basin. The climate variables (precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature) data from the five selected global climate model dataset were downscaled using change factor method under four representative concentration pathway (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) scenarios for future periods near-century (2010-2039), mid-century (2040-2069), and end-century (2070-2099). The downscaled results of all the five models were ensembled using multi-model ensembling method to reduce the uncertainty in the projected results and the percentage change in the climate variables were shown with respect to the historical/baseline period (1961-1990) using spatial plots and histograms. The future projected results shows that percentage change in the annual mean precipitation with respect to the historical (1961-1990), is decreasing for most of the grids in the study area during the near-century while during mid and end centuries it shows an increasing trend across all the four RCP scenarios. The average daily minimum and maximum temperature with respect to the historical (1961-1990) values were showing an increasing trend in the study area during the near, mid, and end centuries across all the four RCP scenarios. Further, study also analysed the percentage change in 100-year return level over the study area.

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Runoff Modelling for the Watershed Using Hydrological Model Swat Under Changing Environment

Reddy,

Chitrahalli Lingaraju,

Kotagi Girisha

et al. 2024

Environmental Science and Engineering

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Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Precipitation and Temperature in the Ghataprabha Sub-basin Using CMIP5 Models

Cited by 4 publications

References 35 publications

Assessing the Implication of Climate Change to Forecast Future Flood Using CMIP6 Climate Projections and HEC-RAS Modeling

Assessing the Implication of Climate Change to Forecast Future Flood Using CMIP6 Climate Projections and HEC-RAS Modeling

Climate Change Impact Assessment on the Precipitation over the Ghataprabha Sub-Basin, India under Future Climate Change Scenarios

Runoff Modelling for the Watershed Using Hydrological Model Swat Under Changing Environment

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