Assessment of climate change impact on barley using the DSSAT model

Abstract

<p>The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) reported that global surface temperature continues to increase. Also, recent climate change is widespread and accelerating (IPCC, 2021). Thus, the impact of climate changes we are experiencing will increase in the future. In particular, since agriculture is closely related to the climate and is directly or indirectly affected, climate change is expected to have diverse and severe effects on crops. Therefore, it is necessary to simulate the potential productivity of barley according to climate change, identify the climate change impact, and establish appropriate management and cultivation methods accordingly. In this study, we aim to simulate barley production based on the SSP5-8.5 climate change scenario, which represents the high end of the range of future pathways. As the study area, we selected Jeollabuk-do, an administrative district with the highest barley cultivation in Korea.</p><p>We used the DSSAT-CERES-Barley (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer-Crop Environment Resource Synthesis) model for simulating barley production. It requires the Minimum Data Set as input data (i.e., weather, soil, crop management, and experimental data). Thus, we used the data as follows; (1) the High-Resolution SSP Climate Change Scenario, acquired by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), was used for weather data. It has a 1km spatial resolution, (2) Soil data were generated using the information on physical and chemical properties of each soil texture, acquired by the National Institute of Agricultural Sciences, and (3) crop management data was applied according to the standard cultivation methods for barley, and field experimental data from the Rural Development Administration (RDA) were used. In addition, since the genotype-specific parameters have a significant impact on the result, the parameter for the Korean barley cultivar was used suggested by Kim <em>et al.</em> (2013).</p><p>Furthermore, the mask maps for barley were generated by extracting only cultivated grids in the current and future land use map, and the steps for pre-processing and generating spatial data were done using R programming language and ArcGIS v10.8.</p><p>The findings of this study are expected to be useful in implementing adaptation plans in the agricultural sector and/or establishing measures to ensure stable barley production under climate change.</p><p>※ This work was supported by Korea Environment Industry &Technology Institute (KEITI) through "Climate Change R&D Project for New Climate Regime.", funded by Korea Ministry of Environment (MOE) (No. 202201344001)</p>