Assessment of catchment water resources availability under projected climate change scenarios and increased demand in Central Rift Valley Basin

Gadissa, Takele; Nyadawa, Maurice; Behulu, Fiseha; Mutua, Benedict M.

doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-815998-9.00013-0

Cited by 8 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…Linear scaling (LS), power transformation (PT), variance of scaling (VS), and distribution mapping were used for this study [34][35][36][37][38]. A detailed description of these bias correction methods can also be found in Gadissa et al [39].…”

Section: Bias Correctionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The ensemble mean of five models was used to assess the climate change in future scenarios (2041-2070) with respect to the base/historical period (1985-2016) under RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5. The average values of the different bias correction methods (linear scaling, power transformation, variance of scaling, and distribution mapping) were applied [39]. Accordingly, precipitation change will vary from −11.71% under RCP4.5 to 1.70% under RCP8.5.…”

Section: Climate Change Projection Of Ensemble Rcms Outputsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The parameters that optimize SWAT model performance for calibration and validation were identified by running the model several times to match the observed and simulated variables. Thirteen parameters that are sensitive to streamflow [39] and four parameters that are sensitive to sediment load, and their rankings, are given in Tables 2 and 3. The SCS runoff curve number (R__CN2) was the most sensitive parameter to streamflow for both the Meki and Ketar rivers.…”

Section: Assessment Of Swat Model Performance Efficiencymentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Effect of Climate Change on Loss of Lake Volume: Case of Sedimentation in Central Rift Valley Basin, Ethiopia

et al. 2018

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Evaluating the impact of climate change on sediment yield has become one of the major topics in climate research. The purpose of this study was to investigate sediment yield contribution to lake volume change under changing climatic conditions in the Central Rift Valley Basin. The ensemble mean of five regional climate models (RCMs) in the coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment (CORDEX)-Africa was considered for the purpose of this study. The climate variables (precipitation, minimum and maximum temperatures) in RCMs were bias corrected against observed data using linear scaling (LS), power transformation (PT), variance of scaling (VS), and quantile mapping (QM). Two emission scenarios, the Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, were considered for the future scenario period . Better results were obtained when the ensemble values of the bias correction methods were used. Hence, the projected values of climate variables after bias correction were used in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model to estimate the sediment yield contribution to lake volume change due to climate change. The results show that the average projected precipitation will decrease by 7.97% and 2.55% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. On average, the maximum temperature will increase by 1.73 • C and 2.36 • C under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, while the minimum temperature will increase by 2.16 • C and 3.07 • C under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The average annual sediment yield contributions to Lake Ziway were 431.05 ton/km 2 and 322.82 ton/km 2 for the Meki and Ketar rivers, respectively, in the historical period . The study also reveals that the annual sediment yield that was estimated for the Meki River was 323 ton/km 2 and 382 ton/km 2 under RCP4.5 and under RCP8.5, respectively. The sediment estimations for the Ketar River were 157 ton/km 2 and 211 ton/km 2 under RCP4.5 under RCP8.5, respectively. This will decrease the rate of volume change in Lake Ziway by 38% under RCP4.5 and by 23% under RCP8.5. The results show that the life expectancy of the lake is likely to increase under climate change scenarios. This will help water resources managers make informed decisions regarding the planning, management, and mitigation of the river basins.Hydrology 2018, 5, 67 2 of 18 reservoirs, ponds, and rivers. The sedimentation of the water bodies reduces their capacity and the useful lifespan of the reservoir. Sediment yield can be described as the amount of sediment that would enter into a reservoir located at the outlet of the basin [1]. It is the net result of soil erosion and processes of sediment accumulation, so it depends on variables that control water and sediment discharge to reservoirs [2]. Sediment yield is influenced by many factors, which include topography, soil, climate, land use, and drainage characteristics [3][4][5][6]. The problem of sedimentation is aggravated by human activities and climate change. A study conducted by Belete [7] on Lake Hawasa showed that sediment...

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Section: Bias Correctionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Climate Change Projection Of Ensemble Rcms Outputsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Assessment Of Swat Model Performance Efficiencymentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Effect of Climate Change on Loss of Lake Volume: Case of Sedimentation in Central Rift Valley Basin, Ethiopia

et al. 2018

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“…The availability of water varies greatly from place to place, and it is strongly influenced by climatic conditions. [4], [6], [7]. The average global temperature may rise by 1.4-5.8 degrees Celsius by the end of the twenty-first century, with significant reductions in freshwater resources and agricultural yield [8].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of Water Availability for Rice Cultivation in South Lampung Regency

Anika

Wijaya

Ramadhani

et al. 2022

IOP Conf. Ser.: Earth Environ. Sci.

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Climatic conditions influence the availability of water for rice cultivation. Climate change will significantly impact rice production in areas where water resource infrastructure is inadequate. South Lampung Regency is primarily a rain-fed rice production region. As a result, an assessment of water availability for rice cultivation is required for sustainable rice production. This study aims to provide recommendations to the government in carrying out the necessary infrastructure development. This study uses secondary data such as rainfall, temperature, solar radiation, evaporation, and humidity from 2010 to 2020. The study’s findings provide information on the sufficiency of water availability for rice cultivation in each sub-district in the South Lampung Regency, as well as scenarios for developing water resources infrastructure.

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“…Increase in concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has been accorded to upsurge temperature on earth and variation in effect of rainfall. Remarkable changes in hydrologic cycle and water availability potential endorses global warming on water resources management (Doell, 2002) indicating reduction in mean annual hydropower production and increase in spills (Warnick, 2004), despite an increase in annual average inflow to the reservoirs has put adverse effect on reservoir operations for the water resource system (Gadissa et al , 2019) resulting in uncertainty related to reservoir performance under climate change in Ethiopia. Halele–Werabessa sub basin, one of the upper basin of Omo-Gibe river has been used in developing hydropower to cater energy in Ethiopia but in recent years climate change has put adverse effect on stream flow and reservoir hydropower production capability (Simonovic, 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prophesying the stream flow and perpetrating the performance of Halele-Werabessa reservoirs of Ethiopia using HEC-HMS and HEC-ResSim

Bekele¹,

Ayana

Mohammed

et al. 2021

WJE

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Purpose To assess the impacts of climate change on stream flow and evaluation of reservoir performances, reliability, resilience and vulnerability (RRV) indices are contemplated. Precipitation, temperature (Tmax, Tmin), relative humidity and solar radiation are the hydrological and meteorological data which have been used extensively. Climate data like RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were evaluated for the base period 1976–2005 and future climate scenario for 2021–2050 and 2051–2080 as per the convenience. Design/methodology/approach The hydrologic engineering center hydrologic modeling system (HEC-HMS) model was used to simulate the current and future inflow volume into the reservoir. The model performance resulted as 0.76 Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), 0.78 R2 and −3.17 D and during calibration the results obtained were 0.8 NSE, 0.82 R2 and 2.1 D. The projected climate scenario illustrates an increasing trend for both maximum and minimum temperature though a decreasing trend was documented for precipitation. The average time base reliability of the reservoirs was less than 50% without reservoir condition and greater than 50% for other conditions but volumetric reliability and resilience varies between 50% and 100% for all conditions. The vulnerability result of reservoirs may face shortage of flow ranging from 5.7% to 33.8%. Findings Evaluating reservoir simulation and hydropower generation for different climate scenarios by HEC-ResSim model, the energy generated for upper dam ranges from 349.4 MWhr to 331.2 MWhr and 4045.82 MWhr and 3946.74 MWhr for short and long-term future scenario, respectively. RCP for Tmax and Tmin goes on increasing whereas precipitation and inflow to reservoir decreases owing to increase in evapotranspiration. Under diverse climatic conditions power production goes on varying simultaneously. Originality/value This paper is original and all the references are properly cited.

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Assessment of catchment water resources availability under projected climate change scenarios and increased demand in Central Rift Valley Basin

Cited by 8 publications

References 27 publications

The Effect of Climate Change on Loss of Lake Volume: Case of Sedimentation in Central Rift Valley Basin, Ethiopia

The Effect of Climate Change on Loss of Lake Volume: Case of Sedimentation in Central Rift Valley Basin, Ethiopia

Assessment of Water Availability for Rice Cultivation in South Lampung Regency

Prophesying the stream flow and perpetrating the performance of Halele-Werabessa reservoirs of Ethiopia using HEC-HMS and HEC-ResSim

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