Assessment and Prediction of Carbon Storage Based on Land Use/Land Cover Dynamics in the Tropics: A Case Study of Hainan Island, China

Liu, Qing; Yang, Dongdong; Cao, Lei; Anderson, Bruce

doi:10.3390/land11020244

Cited by 52 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 82 publications

(101 reference statements)

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“…Wang et al [37] used the PLUS and InVEST models to simulate changes in future land use patterns and the regional carbon storage capacity and found that scenario establishment had a significant influence on the accuracy and reliability of the simulation results. The coupled PLUS-InVEST model can be applied to simulate changes in land use and ES assessment to provide useful guidance for improving regional ESs [38].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Anhui Province is located in the hinterland of the Yangtze River Delta, with diverse landform types, abundant hydrothermal resources, and an outstanding ecological location. As urbanization and high-quality integrated development of the Yangtze River Delta have resulted in a sharp increase in environmental pressure, elucidating changes in ES functions is very useful for the green development of the region [38]. In this study the InVEST (v. 3.11.0) and PLUS (v. 1.3.6)…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Spatial-Temporal Variations and Trade-Offs of Ecosystem Services in Anhui Province, China

Yang

Zhang

Qiu

et al. 2023

IJERPH

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Research on the spatiotemporal evolution and trade-offs of ecosystem services (ESs) is important for optimizing the ecological security barrier system and promoting coordinated socio-economic development. Natural factors, e.g., climate change, and human factors, e.g., unreasonable land use, have impacted and damaged ecosystem structure and function, leading to challenges with ES trade-offs and the spatial identification of priority protected areas. Here, the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of five ESs (water yield, nitrogen export, soil retention, carbon storage, and habitat quality) in Anhui Province, China, from 2000–2020 were analyzed based on the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model. The trade-offs and spatial patterns among different ESs were explored using Pearson correlation and hotspot analyses; the dynamics of natural growth, cultivated land protection, and ecological protection scenarios for ESs in 2030 were simulated and analyzed by coupling InVEST with the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model. The results reveal the following. (1) From 2000–2020, increases in water yield and soil retention occurred, with concurrent declines in the other services; the total nitrogen high-value area was mainly concentrated in the plain, with the other services’ high-value areas mainly concentrated in the Dabieshan and Southern Anhui Mountains, with each ES showing similar spatial distributions across years. (2) The ESs were mainly synergistic, with trade-offs mainly between nitrogen export and other services. (3) Hotspot overlap between water yield and the other ESs was relatively low; no more than 6.53% of ecosystems per unit area provided five ESs simultaneously. (4) Other than water yield, the ecological protection scenario was more conducive to improving ecosystem functions. This study’s results indicate inadequate synergy among ESs in Anhui Province; competition among land types must be further balanced in the future. This study provides a basic reference for implementing ecological projects and constructing ecological security patterns.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial-Temporal Variations and Trade-Offs of Ecosystem Services in Anhui Province, China

Yang

Zhang

Qiu

et al. 2023

IJERPH

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“…This model has been widely used by foreign scholars in many countries and important regions and has shown strong applicability in the research of China [10][11][12][13]. The scholars combined the model with land simulation models such as CA-Markov [14], Markov-CLUE-S [15], FLUS [16], and PLUS [17] to explore the future distribution of carbon storage. PLUS has a high precision in land simulation, which can add future factors to limit the prediction of land change, so as to explore the impact of climate change.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Land Change Simulation and Forest Carbon Storage of Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration, China Based on SSP-RCP Scenarios

Wang

Zhao

Lin

et al. 2022

Forests

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Land use change is closely related to the terrestrial ecosystem. Studying the relationship between land use and ecosystem service carbon storage under future climate change can optimize the regional ecosystem service function and formulate sustainable social and economic development policies, which is of great significance for regional carbon emission management and climate change response. In this paper, the coupled model of SSP-RCP-PLUS-InVEST was constructed to simulate land use change under different scenarios, analyze the influence degree of driving factors on different regions, and explore the spatio-temporal evolution and spatial correlation of carbon storage, taking Central Yunnan City agglomeration as an example. The results showed that: (1) from the perspective of land use change, the overall changes in SSP126 and SSP245 scenarios were similar, and the change rates of different types were slightly different. Under the SSP585 scenario, the forest area decreased, and the urban land and cropland land expanded. (2) Under the three scenarios in the future, the decrease in total carbon storage is the most serious under the SSP245 scenario, and the decrease is the most serious under the SSP585 scenario. (3) Comparative spatial correlation: the carbon storage in the Central Yunnan urban agglomeration is generally correlated among counties, and there is no significant difference under the future scenarios, showing a high accumulation pattern in the east and low accumulation pattern in the middle. In general, reasonable planning of land spatial patterns and increasing the proportion of forest is conducive to the proportion of regional carbon sequestration capacity. The research methods can provide references for addressing climate change and territorial spatial planning.

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“…However, the carbon sink effect of each land-use type conversion varies in different regions and even shows carbon loss. Since this carbon sink process is complex and variable, it exhibits different evolutionary characteristics in different spatial and temporal contexts [ 7 , 8 ]. Therefore, it is also important to clarify the dynamic relationship between land-use changes and CS.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Scenario Simulation of the Relationship between Land-Use Changes and Ecosystem Carbon Storage: A Case Study in Dongting Lake Basin, China

Zhou

Wang

et al. 2023

IJERPH

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High-frequency land-use changes caused by rapid economic development have become a key factor in the imbalance of carbon sequestration within regions. How to balance economic development and ecological protection is a difficult issue for regional planning. Studying the relationship between future land-use changes and ecosystem carbon storage (CS) is of important significance for the optimization of regional land-use patterns. The research used the gray prediction model and coupled the patch-generating land-use simulation (PLUS) model and the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs (InVEST) model. On this basis, the evolution characteristics and spatial coordination between land-use changes and CS in the Dongting Lake Basin (DLB) in different scenarios in 2030 were simulated. The results show that: (1) The spatial distribution of CS remains stable in different scenarios, while land-use types with high carbon density in the periphery of cities are constantly invaded by construction land, which results in the greatest carbon loss in the urban areas. (2) Compared with the natural evolution scenario (NES), only 195.19 km2 of land-use types with high carbon density are transformed into construction land in the ecological protection scenario (EPS), generating a carbon sink gain of 182.47 × 104 Mg. Conversely, in the economic development scenario (EDS), a total of over 1400 km2 of farmland and ecological land are transformed into construction land, which weakens the carbon sequestration capacity of ecosystems, and more than 147 × 104 Mg of carbon loss occurs in the urban areas. (3) The planned development scenario (PDS) takes ecological protection and economic development both into consideration, which not only generates a carbon sink gain of 121.33 × 104 Mg but also reduces the carbon loss in urban areas by more than 50%. The PDS performs well in both land use and CS growth and can better motivate the effect of land-use changes in increasing the carbon sink, which is also proved by analysis of the coordination between land-use intensity (LUI) and CS. Therefore, the PDS better satisfies the future development demand of DLB and can provide a reference for sustainable land use in the basin.

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Assessment and Prediction of Carbon Storage Based on Land Use/Land Cover Dynamics in the Tropics: A Case Study of Hainan Island, China

Cited by 52 publications

References 82 publications

Spatial-Temporal Variations and Trade-Offs of Ecosystem Services in Anhui Province, China

Spatial-Temporal Variations and Trade-Offs of Ecosystem Services in Anhui Province, China

Land Change Simulation and Forest Carbon Storage of Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration, China Based on SSP-RCP Scenarios

Scenario Simulation of the Relationship between Land-Use Changes and Ecosystem Carbon Storage: A Case Study in Dongting Lake Basin, China

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