Assessing wastewater-based epidemiology for the prediction of SARS-CoV-2 incidence in Catalonia

Abstract

While wastewater-based epidemiology has proven a useful tool for epidemiological surveillance during the COVID-19 pandemic, few quantitative models comparing virus concentrations in wastewater samples and cumulative incidence have been established. In this work, a simple mathematical model relating virus concentration and cumulative incidence for full contagion waves was developed. The model was then used for short-term forecasting and compared to a local linear model. Both scenarios were tested using a dataset composed of samples from 32 wastewater treatment plants and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) incidence data covering the corresponding geographical areas during a 7-month period, including two contagion waves. A population-averaged dataset was also developed to model and predict the incidence over the full geography. Overall, the mathematical model based on wastewater data showed a good correlation with cumulative cases and allowed us to anticipate SARS-CoV-2 incidence in one week, which is of special relevance in situations where the epidemiological monitoring system cannot be fully implemented.

Wastewater surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 genomic populations on a country-wide scale through targeted sequencing

“…WWS has been used for identifying increasing trends of community-level infections and predicting epidemic peaks with a reasonable anticipation time, thus providing opportune public health interventions [17][18][19][20][21]. Furthermore, by the introduction of genome sequencing methodologies, WWS has expanded from detecting traces of viral RNA by RT-qPCR to tracking the introduction and prevalence of mutations associated with VOCs circulating in the community [22].…”

Clinical and laboratory diagnosis of monkeypox (mpox): Current status and future directions

“… 134 During the COVID-19 pandemic course, for example, several studies have used the WBE as a surveillance tool in order to identify hotspots of the disease through SARS-CoV-2 RNA detection. 135 , 136 With the mpox outbreak ongoing, recent reports have documented the detection of the MPXV genome in sewersheds around the world, including in the USA, 137 France, 138 and Spain. 139 …”

Longitudinal Fecal Shedding of SARS-CoV-2, Pepper Mild Mottle Virus, and Human Mitochondrial DNA in COVID-19 Patients

“…This application has been explored via several statistical modeling approaches (14–16); However, using modeling to accurately predict COVID-19 prevalence or incidence in populations from SARS-CoV-2 concentrations in wastewater requires longitudinal and quantitative SARS-CoV-2 fecal shedding data. To date, there have been several reports on SARS-CoV-2 fecal shedding, but many studies lack longitudinal samples, quantitative SARS-CoV-2 concentrations (report Ct values rather than absolute quantification) in stool, accurate timing of when the samples were collected after the onset of symptoms, specific amount of fecal material used for viral quantification, and the limit of detection of the assay used for viral quantification, etc.…”

“…Many studies have observed significant correlations between the SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration in wastewater and the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases reported in the corresponding wastewater catchment areas (6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12), which highlights the application of WBE to monitor the burden of viral infection in the population. Other studies have attempted to use SARS-CoV-2 fecal shedding levels as parameters in models to predict the prevalence or incidence of COVID-19 in communities (8,13,14). Predicting prevalence or incidence in the population is critical for public health decision-making.…”