2011
DOI: 10.1029/2010jd014954
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Assessing uncertainty in estimates of atmospheric temperature changes from MSU and AMSU using a Monte-Carlo estimation technique

Abstract: [1] Measurements made by the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) and the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) provide a multidecadal record of global atmospheric temperature change, which have been used by several groups to produce long-term temperature records of thick layers of the atmosphere from the lower troposphere to the lower stratosphere. Here we present an internal uncertainty estimate for the Remote Sensing Systems data sets made using a Monte Carlo approach that includes contributions to the total unc… Show more

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Cited by 76 publications
(155 citation statements)
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“…First and foremost, such estimates are an emerging field and to date several distinct approaches have arisen (e.g., Kennedy et al 2011b;Morice et al 2012;Thorne et al 2011a;Mears et al 2011;Williams et al 2012). These reflect both the importance of such estimates, which allow users to assess the sensitivity of their analyses to observational uncertainties in a more informed manner, and also the real challenges in making such estimates.…”
Section: The Ersstv4 Parametric Uncertainty Estimationmentioning
confidence: 99%
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“…First and foremost, such estimates are an emerging field and to date several distinct approaches have arisen (e.g., Kennedy et al 2011b;Morice et al 2012;Thorne et al 2011a;Mears et al 2011;Williams et al 2012). These reflect both the importance of such estimates, which allow users to assess the sensitivity of their analyses to observational uncertainties in a more informed manner, and also the real challenges in making such estimates.…”
Section: The Ersstv4 Parametric Uncertainty Estimationmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…This is unsurprising given the sequential nature of the processing as outlined in section 2. Indeed, based upon a tacitly stated assumption of such nonlinearity existing in dataset construction techniques more generally, many emergent parametric uncertainty estimates for both in situ (e.g., Kennedy et al 2011b;Morice et al 2012;Thorne et al 2011a) and satellite (Mears et al 2011) data products have used Monte Carlo estimation techniques to quantify their parametric uncertainties. To our knowledge, this is the first time that the need or otherwise for such a step has been formally quantified and proven, at least in an observational climate record reconstruction context for a given algorithmic approach.…”
Section: B Testing For Nonlinearitymentioning
confidence: 99%
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“…Where the propagation of these is highly non-linear, they can be estimated via ensemble techniques analogous to the NWP approach, as done by Liu et al (2015). Rather than present an ensemble of retrievals, Mears et al (2011) produced an ensemble of estimated errors (as perturbations about the measured value presume it is the mean of the true distribution).…”
Section: Atmosmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Another way to explore the uncertainty would be to produce plausible ensemble estimates of HadISDH, as was done for HadCRUT4 or Remote Sensing Systems' Microwave Sounding Units product (Mears et al, 2011). This is the first time that a global humidity estimate has been given any measure of uncertainty.…”
Section: K M Willett Et Al: An Updateable Land Surface Specific Humentioning
confidence: 99%