Assessing uncertainty and risk in exploited marine populations

Fogarty, Michael J.; Mayo, Ralph K.; O’Brien, Laura; Serchuk, Fredric M.; Rosenberg, Andrew A.

doi:10.1016/s0951-8320(96)00074-9

Cited by 16 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…Principal sources of uncertainty in the assessment and management of fishery resources include the intrinsic variability in the dynamics of marine populations (notably in recruitment), measurement error in estimation of abundance and population parameters, and incomplete understanding of factors controlling population, community, and ecosystem dynamics (Fogarty et al 1992, 1996). These difficulties have led to calls for the consistent application of a precautionary approach to fishery management in which uncertainties are explicitly recognized and integrated into management advice and policy (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations 1995).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Large-Scale Disturbance and the Structure of Marine Systems: Fishery Impacts on Georges Bank

Fogarty

Murawski

1998

Ecological Applications

309

249

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Georges Bank, a shallow submarine plateau located off the New England coast, has supported valuable commercial fisheries for several centuries. The region is characterized by high levels of primary productivity and, historically, high levels of fish production. Within the last four decades Georges Bank has been subjected to major perturbations that have profoundly altered levels of catch, abundance, and species composition. The arrival of distant water fleets during the early 1960s resulted in dramatic increases in effective fishing effort and the subsequent commercial collapse of several fish populations. Total fish biomass is estimated to have declined by >50% on Georges Bank during the period of operation of the distant water fleets. The implementation of extended jurisdiction (the 200‐mile [370.4‐km] limit) in 1977 was followed by modernization and increased capacity of the domestic fleet, resulting in a second perturbation to the system that resulted in further declines in groundfish populations to historically low levels. A subsequent increase in the abundance of species of low commercial value was documented, with an apparent replacement of gadid and flounder species by small elasmobranchs (including dogfish sharks and skates). Examination of feeding guild structure suggests that this switch in species dominance may have been linked to a competitive release. The small elasmobranchs, notably dogfish sharks, also prey on species of commercial importance (primarily small pelagics, including herring and mackerel). The cumulative impacts on the groundfish populations as a result of intense exploitation and predation pressure may have been further exacerbated by effects of fishing gear on the physical structure of the habitat. Implications for the development of an ecosystem‐based management approach are described.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Large-Scale Disturbance and the Structure of Marine Systems: Fishery Impacts on Georges Bank

Fogarty

Murawski

1998

Ecological Applications

309

249

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“…The management reference points are calculated based on the fisheries data and life history parameters using per-recruit models, production models, or stock-recruitment models and are often assumed to be deterministic when they are compared with indicator reference points. This assumption is rather unrealistic considering large variations that may exist in models, data and ecosystems (Fogarty et al, 1996;Prager et al, 2003). Thus, management advisory statements derived using such an approach of comparing deterministic management reference points with stochastic indicator references do not reflect the fact that both the indicator and management reference points are subject to considerable uncertainty, and may yield erroneous conclusions about the status of fish stocks.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An application of the composite risk assessment method in assessing fisheries stock status

2005

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“…Uncertainty in fishery assessments arises from several different sources: the natural variability of the stock, the errors associated with the sampling programs, insufficient information on the population/community dynamics, and the choice of statistical approach for parameter estimation (Fogarty et al, 1996;Francis and Shotton, 1997). Consequently, uncertainty affects estimates of the current fishing mortality rate, F cur , as well as the BRP fishing mortality rate, F BRP .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Incorporating uncertainty into the estimation of the biological reference points F0.1 and Fmax for the Maine green sea urchin (Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis) fishery

Grabowski

Chen

2004

Fisheries Research

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Assessing uncertainty and risk in exploited marine populations

Cited by 16 publications

References 17 publications

Large-Scale Disturbance and the Structure of Marine Systems: Fishery Impacts on Georges Bank

Large-Scale Disturbance and the Structure of Marine Systems: Fishery Impacts on Georges Bank

An application of the composite risk assessment method in assessing fisheries stock status

Incorporating uncertainty into the estimation of the biological reference points F0.1 and Fmax for the Maine green sea urchin (Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis) fishery

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