Assessing the Water Parallel Pricing System against Drought  in China: A Study Based on a CGE Model with Multi-Provincial Irrigation Water

Zhong, Shuai; Shen, Lei; Sha, Jinghua; Okiyama, Mitsuru; Tokunaga, Suminori; Liu, Litao; Yan, Jingjing

doi:10.3390/w7073431

Cited by 17 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…To acquire a basic understanding of irrigation water pricing and management, the authors conducted a field survey in rural areas of Jilin and Anhui provinces [14,26]. In the first stage of the modeling process, 15 provinces were selected for an in-depth exploration of the effects of water-saving policy on agricultural production and local rural households.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It is widely accepted that if water users pay the marginal costs of water supply, significant advances can be made toward increasing water-management efficiency [25]. However, irrigation water prices in China are already heavily subsidized and prices paid by farmers are insufficient to recover water supply costs [26,27]. Under current subsidy conditions, farmers have no incentive to save water by improving irrigation efficiency [28,29].…”

Section: Context To Water Pricing Reformmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Designing Optimum Water-Saving Policy in China Using Quantity and Price Control Mechanisms

2019

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In an attempt to alleviate water scarcity, the government of China has introduced a water plan for the year 2030. Based on a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, this paper investigates how conservation of irrigation water, grain production, and the welfare of rural households will be affected by planned reductions to the irrigation water subsidy between 2018 and 2030. Four policy instruments, namely quantitative control (QC), quantitative control with a subsidy reduction (QC-SR), price control (PC), and price control with a subsidy reduction (PC-SR) are employed in the model. Most existing research has found that reducing the irrigation subsidy will lead to significant negative impacts to the agricultural economy, and especially to rural households. These predicted negative impacts are a barrier to agricultural water policy pricing reform. However, the results of this research show that a provincial subsidy reduction to 1% between 2018 and 2030 will have an insignificant impact on agricultural production as well as rural household incomes and welfare, despite the subsidy rate currently accounting for more than 90% of the total irrigation value at the macro level in most provinces. Furthermore, PC will create a demand for irrigation water, which is predicted to rise to more than five times the agricultural water planning level currently set for 2030, and PC-SR will not achieve the agricultural water planning goal.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Context To Water Pricing Reformmentioning

confidence: 99%

Designing Optimum Water-Saving Policy in China Using Quantity and Price Control Mechanisms

2019

Self Cite

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“…Moreover, the substitution elasticity among different factors and commodities, and the income elasticity of rural and urban households, were obtained from Ge et al [19] and Zhong et al [36], as shown in Table 2. The dynamic model is run up to the year 2025 from the base year of 2010.…”

Section: Data and Model Calibrationmentioning

confidence: 99%

China’s Rare Earths Supply Forecast in 2025: A Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

Lei

Lianrong

2016

Minerals

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The supply of rare earths in China has been the focus of significant attention in recent years. Due to changes in regulatory policies and the development of strategic emerging industries, it is critical to investigate the scenario of rare earth supplies in 2025. To address this question, this paper constructed a dynamic computable equilibrium (DCGE) model to forecast the production, domestic supply, and export of China's rare earths in 2025. Based on our analysis, production will increase by 10.8%-12.6% and achieve 116,335-118,260 tons of rare-earth oxide (REO) in 2025, based on recent extraction control during 2011-2016. Moreover, domestic supply and export will be 75,081-76,800 tons REO and 38,797-39,400 tons REO, respectively. The technological improvements on substitution and recycling will significantly decrease the supply and mining activities of rare earths. From a policy perspective, we found that the elimination of export regulations, including export quotas and export taxes, does have a negative impact on China's future domestic supply of rare earths. The policy conflicts between the increase in investment in strategic emerging industries, and the increase in resource and environmental taxes on rare earths will also affect China's rare earths supply in the future.

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“…Droughts are recognized as an environmental disaster, the consequence of a reduction in precipitation over an extended period of time [1], negatively affecting agriculture, domestic water supply and economic growth [2], and in some cases even altering the functioning of natural ecosystems [3]. Droughts are especially important in regions where economic activities are highly dependent on water resources [4], such as in mountain regions which traditionally provide water resources and services to local communities and lowland residents [5].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic Forecasting of Drought Events Using Markov Chain- and Bayesian Network-Based Models: A Case Study of an Andean Regulated River Basin

Avilés

Célleri

Solera

et al. 2016

Water

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Abstract:The scarcity of water resources in mountain areas can distort normal water application patterns with among other effects, a negative impact on water supply and river ecosystems. Knowing the probability of droughts might help to optimize a priori the planning and management of the water resources in general and of the Andean watersheds in particular. This study compares Markov chain-(MC) and Bayesian network-(BN) based models in drought forecasting using a recently developed drought index with respect to their capability to characterize different drought severity states. The copula functions were used to solve the BNs and the ranked probability skill score (RPSS) to evaluate the performance of the models. Monthly rainfall and streamflow data of the Chulco River basin, located in Southern Ecuador, were used to assess the performance of both approaches. Global evaluation results revealed that the MC-based models predict better wet and dry periods, and BN-based models generate slightly more accurately forecasts of the most severe droughts. However, evaluation of monthly results reveals that, for each month of the hydrological year, either the MC-or BN-based model provides better forecasts. The presented approach could be of assistance to water managers to ensure that timely decision-making on drought response is undertaken.

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Assessing the Water Parallel Pricing System against Drought in China: A Study Based on a CGE Model with Multi-Provincial Irrigation Water

Cited by 17 publications

References 29 publications

Designing Optimum Water-Saving Policy in China Using Quantity and Price Control Mechanisms

Designing Optimum Water-Saving Policy in China Using Quantity and Price Control Mechanisms

China’s Rare Earths Supply Forecast in 2025: A Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

Probabilistic Forecasting of Drought Events Using Markov Chain- and Bayesian Network-Based Models: A Case Study of an Andean Regulated River Basin

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