Assessing the Variance in Pupil Attainment: How Important is the School Attended?

Abstract

We explore the variation in pupil attainment at the end of secondary schooling in England. The paper links data on all schools and all pupils within these schools to analyse the role of the school in accounting for this variation. We analyse a number of different indicators of pupil attainment including value added between the end of primary and secondary schooling and attainment levels at the end of secondary schooling. We examine indicators that were the focus of the school accounting framework as well as other indicators that were not directly part of how schools were assessed. We show that schools account for a minority of the variance in pupil attainment, and the extent of the variation accounted for by the school is sensitive to the measure of pupil attainment used. In addition, we find that the majority of the explained school-level variance in attainment is related to school composition. However, most of the variance in attainment remains unexplained, raising questions about what other factors contribute to the variation in school performance.

What Does Leadership Look Like in Schools and Does it Matter for School Performance?

“…We see some differences depending on the metric of school performance used: when considering performance in terms of total points score we see a statistically significant association with the number of middle leaders, but if we consider performance in terms of GCSE points per entry, we instead see an association with the number of deputy and assistant heads. Further research would be required in order to understand more about the reasons as to why results might differ by performance measure, but it is not uncommon for studies of school performance to show variation according to the performance metric used (see, for example, Wilkinson et al, 2018). As noted above, one potential explanation may relate to the changes in the types of qualifications counted following the Wolf Review, which had some impact on the total points score but not on the points per entry measure.…”

“…Note that our models for this performance measure are based on a five year period (2010/11-2014/15), as this measure is only available for these years. We also construct an alternative performance measure (GCSE points per entry), in order to have a consistent performance measure for all six years (see Wilkinson et al, 2018, for further discussion regarding this measure).…”

“…This led schools to switch towards GCSE qualifications, with this change mainly affecting low attainment pupils that would previously have been less likely to sit GCSEs. These changes have affected the total points score over our analysis period, but have had much less impact on the points per entry measure (see Wilkinson et al, 2018, for further details of the changes to qualifications over time).…”

The early labour-market returns to upper secondary qualifications track in England

“…Schools in England are known to be highly segregated along socioeconomic and ethnic lines, such that 30% of all pupils eligible for free school meals (FSM, a widely used poverty measure) and 43% of all pupils from ethnic minority groups would need to switch schools in order to achieve an even balance across all schools in the same region of the country (Gorard, 2016). Studies indicate that some 10-30% of pupil attainment at lower secondary level is attributable to the characteristics of schools rather than those of individual pupils (Wilkinson, Bryson and Stokes, 2018). Importantly, schools in which disadvantaged pupils are heavily clustered have been found to display lower average levels of pupil attainment, net of the effects of individual pupil characteristics (Gorard and Siddiqui, 2019).…”

The tragedy of state education in England: Reluctance, compromise and muddle— a system in disarray

“…The focus of policy attention in relation to the 'problem' of student performance and performance 'gaps' is firmly on the school. However, a great deal of research, from many different sources, indicates that schools account for only a minority part of the explanation of the variance of performance between students (Wilkinson et al 2018); although individual teachers can be considerably more important (see below). 54 The current headline pupil attainment indicator, Progress 8, which is used in the current school league tables, compares attainment at the end of primary schooling with attainment at the end of compulsory schooling, typically at age 16, so tracks the progress of pupils.…”