Assessing the Tropical South Atlantic atmosphere thermodynamics under distinct Sea Surface Temperature patterns

Abstract

Northeast Brazil (NEB) is a susceptible region to the occurrence of extreme rainfall events. Sea surface temperature (SST) is used as an indicator for predicting intense weather events in this region. The westernmost Tropical South Atlantic region, also called Southern Atlantic Warm Pool (SAWP), is characterized by a source of heat and humidity which creates atmospheric instability for the NEB. In June 2010 the eastern coast of NEB (ENEB)was influenced by heavy rainfall, causing flash floods and landslides. On the other hand, 2012 marked the beginning of a period of droughts that affected the whole NEB area. The SAWP temperature in turn recorded anomalous values ​​of + 1ºC (-0.5ºC) in 2010 (2012), respectively, although in June 2012 intense rainfall was recorded in ENEB, even with intense negative SST anomalies. With the Coupled-Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave and Sediment Transport (COAWST) model, simulations were made to characterize 2010 and 2012 atmospheric conditions, modifying the SST input data in both situations. The goal of this work is to assess the meteorological systems that occurred in 2010 and 2012 using observational, reanalysis, and simulated data, as well as to identify changes in atmospheric instability patterns, which are under influences of different SST conditions. We performed four cases, including: a) SST measured in 2010 with 2010 atmospheric conditions; b) SST measured in 2012 with weather conditions of 2010; c) SST measured in 2012 with 2012 weather conditions; d) measured in2010 with atmospheric conditions from 2012. The results showed that SAWP temperature significantly influenced the instability of meteorological systems. The impacts were more significant in the lower layer of the atmosphere, especially in the variables that lead to low-level instabilities. Also, it was observed that warmer atmospheric conditions favor the ocean environment to remain warmer, maintaining the unstable conditions over SAWP.