Assessing the Temporal and Spatial Dynamics of the Dengue Epidemic in Northern Sri Lanka using Remote Sensing Data, GIS and Statistical Analysis

Abstract

Dengue outbreaks are affected by biological, ecological, socio-economic and demographic factors that vary with time and space. These spatial and temporal variables have been examined separately with some success, but still elude systematic understanding. The present study investigates the covariance of spatial and temporal factors for dengue outbreaks in the northern region of Sri Lanka. The relations identified herein demonstrate spatio-temporal dynamics of the disease and can inform surveillance and control strategies. Multi-satellite remote sensing (RS) data were used to construct an index comprising rainfall, humidity and temperature data. RS data gathered by ALOS/ AVNIR-2 and a digital land cover map were used to extract land usage information. Other data on relevant factors and dengue outbreaks were collected through institutions and public databases. RS and other data were integrated and analysed for spatial association analysis and spatial statistics. Our findings show that a combination of ecological, socio-economic and demographic factors can predict spatial and temporal trends in dengue outbreaks.