Assessing the size and uncertainty of remaining carbon budgets

Lamboll, Robin; Nicholls, Zebedee; Smith, Christopher J.; Kikstra, Jarmo; Byers, Edward; Rogelj, Joeri

doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-1934427/v1

Cited by 6 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 29 publications

(32 reference statements)

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“…Currently, global carbon emissions have exceeded 50% of the carbon budget. At the current emission rate, it is projected that the world will exhaust the remaining emission budget within the next 30 years (Lamboll et al., 2023). To address this urgent challenge, 97 Parties, accounting for about 82% of global greenhouse gas emissions, have already made net‐zero emission commitments (Hoehne et al., 2021).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global Vegetation‐Temperature Sensitivity and Its Driving Forces in the 21st Century

Yuxi,

Li,

Yuemin

et al. 2024

Earth's Future

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It has been projected that climatic warming will contribute to vegetation productivity variability at the global scale. With a continued warming, to what extent and where the vegetation productivity is most affected by warming has still not been adequately quantified. Herein, based on 11 earth system model outputs, we predict the characteristics of vegetation‐temperature sensitivity (Svpt, defined as higher/lower temperature produce more/less vegetation) changes under different CO2 emission scenarios and various vegetation types, further assessing the relationship of the Svpt to socio‐ecosystems. At the end of the 21st century, the area proportion with the global temperature increases >2°C under the SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, SSP3‐7.0, and SSP5‐8.5 scenarios are 3%, 40%, 97%, and 99%, respectively. The largest contribution to the global terrestrial gross primary productivity growth is at low latitudes. 33%–63% of global terrestrial ecosystems show a significantly negative trend in the Svpt, indicating the weakened promotion effect of warming on vegetation growth. In particular, in 2060, there will be a clear reversal of the trend from carbon sink to carbon source under the SSP3‐7.0 scenario, spatially distributed mainly in the Amazon rainforest, tropical Africa, and southern North America. Precipitation is also an important factor affecting the Svpt change, and there is an inverted U‐shaped relationship between them. Precipitation thresholds are higher under the high emission scenario when Svpt reaches its highest value. Moreover, socio‐demographic pressures in places like Central Africa and East Africa will offset the promotion of vegetation growth by warming; in the future, these countries should develop appropriate population and land management strategies to achieve socio‐ecosystems sustainable development.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global Vegetation‐Temperature Sensitivity and Its Driving Forces in the 21st Century

Yuxi,

Li,

Yuemin

et al. 2024

Earth's Future

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“…While there is still much to be learned from common gardens and reciprocal transplants, we are running out of time. Climate change is pressing; we are still on course for a “business as usual”, or worse, climate trajectory (Lamboll et al, 2023). How forests respond to future change is a large part of the uncertainty in those predictions.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, they are time consuming and difficult to set up anew, particularly for long‐lived, slowly growing, large tree species. Given we are highly unlikely to meet the goal of limiting climate change to 1.5°C warming set by the Paris Climate Accord (Lamboll et al, 2023), we need to understand how one of the world's largest carbon sinks, forests, will respond to change and how we can intervene to enhance this carbon sink as quickly as possible.…”

Section: How Have We Traditionally Separated the Two Drivers Of Varia...mentioning

confidence: 99%

The drivers of intraspecific trait variation and their implications for future tree productivity and survival

Blumstein

2024

American J of Botany

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Forests are facing unprecedented levels of stress from pest and disease outbreaks, disturbance, fragmentation, development, and a changing climate. These selective agents act to alter forest composition from regional to cellular levels. Thus, a central challenge for understanding how forests will be impacted by future change is how to integrate across scales of biology. Phenotype, or an observable trait, is the product of an individual's genes (G) and the environment in which an organism lives (E). To date, researchers have detailed how environment drives variation in tree phenotypes over long time periods (e.g., long‐term ecological research sites [LTERs]) and across large spatial scales (e.g., flux network). In parallel, researchers have discovered the genes and pathways that govern phenotypes, finding high degrees of genetic control and signatures of local adaptation in many plant traits. However, the research in these two areas remain largely independent of each other, hindering our ability to generate accurate predictions of plant response to environment, an increasingly urgent need given threats to forest systems. I present the importance of both genes and environment in determining tree responses to climate stress. I highlight why the difference between G versus E in driving variation is critical for our understanding of climate responses, then propose means of accelerating research that examines G and E simultaneously by leveraging existing long‐term, large‐scale phenotypic data sets from ecological networks and adding newly affordable sequence (‐omics) data to both drill down to find the genes and alleles influencing phenotypes and scale up to find how patterns of demography and local adaptation may influence future response to change.

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“…Newer estimates, however, indicate a smaller carbon budget than those of the IPCC. Specifically, starting from January 2022, it has been suggested that achieving the 1.5 °C Paris Agreement target leaves only 300 GtCO 2 with a 50% likelihood or 110 GtCO 2 with 66% likelihood 9 . According to this total, 2022 emissions used 36.5% of the 1.5 °C budget (66% likelihood), leaving 70 GtCO 2 .…”

Section: Carbon Budget Countdownmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Carbon Monitor: https://carbonmonitor.org/ will be used up in 23.7 years. When considering the non-CO 2 contributors to anthropogenic warming, such as methane, nitrous oxide, and fluorinated gases, the remaining carbon budget becomes even smaller 9 .…”

Section: Competing Interestsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Monitoring global carbon emissions in 2022

Liu

Deng

Davis

et al. 2023

Nat Rev Earth Environ

117

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Global CO 2 emissions for 2022 increased by 1.5% relative to 2021 (+7.9% and +2.0% relative to 2020 and 2019, respectively), reaching 36.1 GtCO 2 . These 2022 emissions consumed 13%-36% of the remaining carbon budget to limit warming to 1.5 °C, suggesting permissible emissions could be depleted within 2-7 years (67% likelihood).The COVID-19 pandemic caused a record annual reduction in global carbon emissions in 2020, decreasing by 5.4% (1.9 GtCO 2 ) when compared with 2019 (refs. 1,2 ). However, this drop was short-lived, as evidenced by global CO 2 emissions rebounding to near pre-pandemic levels in 2021, increasing by 6.3% (2.1 GtCO 2 ) (refs. [3][4][5] ). Given the short timeline to meet international climate goals, and so limit anthropogenic warming to 1.5 or 2 °C, detailed and near-real-time tracking of global emissions is crucial. Here, we present and analyse daily, national and sector-specific CO 2 emissions for 2022 using near-real-time data from the Carbon Monitor project 1,2 .

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Assessing the size and uncertainty of remaining carbon budgets

Cited by 6 publications

References 29 publications

Global Vegetation‐Temperature Sensitivity and Its Driving Forces in the 21st Century

Global Vegetation‐Temperature Sensitivity and Its Driving Forces in the 21st Century

The drivers of intraspecific trait variation and their implications for future tree productivity and survival

Monitoring global carbon emissions in 2022

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