Assessing the risk of threats with guns in the general population.

Abstract

A model for the assessment of the likelihood of threats using guns was tested in a nationally representative sample. Threats using guns were more likely in individuals with antisocial personality, Odds Ratio (OR) ϭ 2.9, Wald's chi-square (1) ϭ 4.8, p Ͻ .05, psychotic symptoms, OR ϭ 1.8, Wald's chi-square (1) ϭ 5.8, p Ͻ .05, and a history of psychiatric hospitalization, OR ϭ 1.8, Wald's chi-square (1) ϭ 4.5, p Ͻ .05, after adjusting for gender and household income. This model produced a moderate effect size, Cohen's f 2 ϭ .16, and classified individuals who threaten others using guns with a sensitivity of .73 and specificity of .54. By comparison, a model assessing threats with weapons other than guns included alcohol abuse or dependence, OR ϭ 2.1, Wald's chi-square (1) ϭ 7.8, p Ͻ .01, intermittent explosive disorder, OR ϭ 1.9, Wald's chi-square (1) ϭ 11.8, p Ͻ .01, and antisocial personality, OR ϭ 3.2, Wald's chi-square (1) ϭ 10.9, p Ͻ .01, after adjusting for sex, age, and household income. An alternative model classifying gun threats in subjects with no history of arrests or hospitalizations was more sensitive and less specific, whereas an alternative model in subjects with a history of arrests or hospitalizations was less sensitive but more specific. Screening individuals for gun use based on the assessment model here could detect almost three quarters of the cases of gun threats, but would falsely identify nearly half of those screened as risks for gun threats.

Offense Characteristics of Incompetent to Stand Trial Defendants Charged With Violent Offenses

“…Current laws focus on factors related to the use of firearms, such as previous psychiatric hospitalizations. Bovasso's () research supports such policies to some extent; in a nationwide survey, individuals with a history of psychiatric hospitalizations were almost four times more likely to have made a threat with a gun than those without (8.8% vs. 2.9%, respectively). Predicting gun threats based on presence of psychiatric hospitalizations and arrests would yield a 63% sensitivity rate and a 70% specificity rate; however, the false positive rate would be very high (77%; Bovasso, ).…”

“…Bovasso's () research supports such policies to some extent; in a nationwide survey, individuals with a history of psychiatric hospitalizations were almost four times more likely to have made a threat with a gun than those without (8.8% vs. 2.9%, respectively). Predicting gun threats based on presence of psychiatric hospitalizations and arrests would yield a 63% sensitivity rate and a 70% specificity rate; however, the false positive rate would be very high (77%; Bovasso, ). In the current study, there was a lack of identified factors separating those who used weapons from those who did not, a low base rate of firearm usage, and a finding that almost one‐third of offenders faced non‐violent charges.…”

“…Gun violence occurs relatively infrequently in the population as a whole, impeding advanced prediction of its occurrence (Bovasso, ). Bovasso () reviewed data from 5,706 respondents from the National Comorbidity Survey‐Replication (NCS‐R). Just over 1 in 10 (12.2%) respondents reported that they had made threats with guns (4.4%) or other weapons (7.8%).…”

Gun Violence Following Inpatient Psychiatric Treatment: Offense Characteristics, Sources of Guns, and Number of Victims

“…Among the strengths, the use of an inmate sample permitted analysis of rarely examined data, including specific information on the sources of guns used in crimes by gun violence perpetrators with and without a history of psychiatric hospitalization. In addition, the use of a nationally representative survey of state correctional inmates to examine the issue of gun violence and mental illness expands on prior work from individual states (27,28), longitudinal studies involving discharged psychiatric inpatients (14), and national samples of noninstitutionalized adults (13,29,30). Among the limitations, we were unable to distinguish voluntary from involuntary psychiatric hospitalizations, which is relevant because only persons with involuntary psychiatric hospitalizations are prohibited from purchasing firearms under current federal law.…”

“…Epidemiologic research, for instance, has shown that mental illness accounts for only 3% to 5% of all violence in the United States (11,12). Furthermore, although research shows that a history of psychiatric hospitalization is associated with nearly twofold greater odds of making a threat with a gun (13), longitudinal findings for psychiatric inpatients indicated that approximately 98% committed no acts of violence with a gun in the year after discharge (14). Nevertheless, policies to reduce gun violence targeting people with mental illness receive a great deal of public support, and a recent public opinion survey found that 85.4% of the general public supported efforts to prohibit these individuals from purchasing or possessing firearms (15).…”