Assessing the re-introduction ofAedes aegyptiin Europe. Will the Yellow Fever Mosquito colonize the Old World?

Abstract

Highlights• European coasts present favourable conditions for Aedes aegypti establishment • We assess the species introduction and establishment using a process-based model • We selected five ports: Algeciras, Barcelona, Venice , Genoa and Rotterdam • Algeciras and Barcelona were the most suitable areas for the species establishment • Climate change could make more suitable the northernmost study areas Abstract Aedes aegypti are feared invasive mosquitoes as they transmit pathogens which 1 cause debilitating diseases in humans. Although mainland Europe has not yet wit-2 nessed re-establishment and diffusion of Ae. aegypti populations, several urban areas 3 along coastlines represent suitable habitats for the species. In addition, European 4 coastal areas are characterized by a high exotic species propagule pressure, due to the 5 dense international ship traffic.6