Assessing the Probability of Drought Severity in a Homogeneous Region

Niaz, Rizwan; Almazah, Mohammed M. A.; Hussain, Ijaz; Filho, João Dehon Pontes; Al‐Ansari, Nadhir; Sammen, Saad Sh.

doi:10.1155/2022/3139870

Cited by 9 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…Te process of SPI analysis involves transforming the rainfall data into a normal distribution using the gamma probability distribution [1]. Te SPI can also be calculated by using the marginal probability of precipitation formula instead of gamma distribution function [42,[63][64][65]. To extend this, the current research uses the formula that is proposed by [42] for standardizing the precipitation data.…”

Section: Standardized Precipitation Index Te Standardizedmentioning

confidence: 99%

A New Comprehensive Framework for Identifying and Monitoring the Interseasonal Characteristics of Meteorological Drought

Amin,

Niaz,

Albasheir

et al. 2023

Complexity

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The current study aimed to examine the interseasonal characteristics of meteorological drought. For this purpose, a new comprehensive framework is proposed. The framework consists of two major stages. In the first stage of the framework, the K-means method is utilized to identify homogeneous clusters. Besides, the Monte Carlo feature selection (MCFS) is applied to select more important stations from the varying clusters. In the second stage, the standardized precipitation index at a three-time scale (SPI-3), the conditional fixed effect binary logistic regression model (CFEBLRM), and the random effect binary logistic regression model (REBLRM) are utilized. The significance of CFEBLRM and REBLRM is measured by log-likelihood values, log-likelihood ratio chi-square test (LRCST), Wald chi-square tests (WCT), and p values. The Hausman test (HT) is applied to identify endogeneity and suggests the appropriate model in CFEBLRM and REBLRM. The results from the proposed framework indicate that the drought persists in the summer to autumn and autumn to winter seasons between 90 and 99 percent. The odds ratio of CFEBLRM for the summer-autumn season indicates that the increment in precipitation will decrease the drought persistence in the autumn season. The result of the current study facilitates the decision-makers to understand the effects of meteorological drought occurrences better and improve strategies for mitigating drought effects and managing seasonal crops in the Punjab province in Pakistan.

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Section: Standardized Precipitation Index Te Standardizedmentioning

confidence: 99%

A New Comprehensive Framework for Identifying and Monitoring the Interseasonal Characteristics of Meteorological Drought

Amin,

Niaz,

Albasheir

et al. 2023

Complexity

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“…Most of the agricultural lands of the country depend on the reservoir systems that are linked to the selected stations. Several publications related to drought analysis [86,[97][98][99] have been based on these stations. Based on these publications and importance of the stations for the reservoir systems, therefore, these stations are selected for the current analysis.…”

Section: Gupis Skardumentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Moreover, Niaz et al [98] proposed a new technique based on SSP to accumulate information from various indices. Recently, Niaz et al [99] incorporated SSP in their study to assess the probability of drought severity in the selected region. e SSP is used broadly in several publications to develop new methods and procedures [97][98][99]113].…”

Section: Steady-state Probabilities (Ssps)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…erefore, the study of the particular region has significant importance; thus, current research is applied to the specific region. e selected region has a homogeneous pattern of drought occurrences concerning specific drought indices and a time scale (onemonth time scale) [76,[96][97][98][99]. Ali et al [96] examined meteorological drought based on three indices (SPI, SPEI, and SPTI).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Characterization of Meteorological Drought Using Monte Carlo Feature Selection and Steady‐State Probabilities

et al. 2022

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Drought is a creeping phenomenon that slowly holds an area over time and can be continued for many years. The impacts of drought occurrences can affect communities and environments worldwide in several ways. Thus, assessment and monitoring of drought occurrences in a region are crucial for reducing its vulnerability to the negative impacts of drought. Therefore, comprehensive drought assessment techniques and methods are required to develop adaptive strategies that a region can undertake to reduce its vulnerability to drought substantially. For this purpose, this study proposes a new method known as a regional comprehensive assessment of meteorological drought (RCAMD). The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and Standardized Precipitation and Temperature Index (SPTI) are jointly used for the development of the RCAMD. Further, the RCAMD employs Monte Carlo feature selection (MCFS) and steady-state probabilities (SSPs) to comprehensively collect information from various stations and drought indices. Moreover, the RCAMD is validated on the six selected stations in the northern areas of Pakistan. The outcomes associated with the RCAMD provide a comprehensive regional assessment of meteorological drought and become the initial source for bringing more considerations to drought monitoring and early warning systems.

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“…Bu nedenle literatürde meteorolojik kuraklığın tahmin edilmesi için birçok kuraklık indeksi yöntemi geliştirilmiştir. Bu yöntemlerden en yaygın olarak kullanılanı ise Standart Yağış İndeksi (SPI) yöntemidir [11]. Bu yöntemde girdi olarak sadece yağış verisi kullanılmakta ve hesaplanan değerler yardımı ile kuraklığın büyüklüğü ve sıklığı tahmin edilebilmektedir.…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Van ilinin kuraklığının SPI ve SPEI yöntemlerine göre değerlendirilmesi

Aydın

2023

DÜMF MD

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Özellikle son yıllarda iklim değişikliğinin ve insan faaliyetlerinin bir sonucu olarak kuraklık olayının etkisi her geçen gün artmaktadır. Bunun sonucu olarak su kaynakları, tarım ve canlılar olumsuz olarak etkilenmektedir. Bu çalışmada, Van ilinin kuraklık olayından nasıl etkilendiğini tespit edebilmek amacıyla literatürde yaygın olarak kullanılan Standart Yağış İndeksi (SPI) ve Standart Yağış Evapotranspirasyon İndeksi (SPEI) yöntemleri kullanılarak 1,3,6,9 ve 12 aylık zaman periyotlarında kuraklık analizi yapılmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlar incelendiğinde SPI yöntemine göre aşırı kurak dönemlerin en çok görüldüğü bölge Erciş ilçesi olarak belirlenirken, aşırı nemli dönemlerin en çok görüldüğü bölge ise Özalp ilçesi olarak belirlenmiştir. SPEI yöntemine göre ise aşırı kurak dönemin en çok görüldüğü bölge Özalp ilçesi olurken, aşırı nemli dönemlerin en çok görüldüğü ilçeler ise özellikle uzun zaman periyotlarında Erciş ve Başkale ilçeleri olarak belirlenmiştir. Sonuç olarak her iki yöntem genel olarak birbirine yakın sonuçlar verse de özellikle ekstrem kuraklık ve nemlilik olaylarının hesabında SPI yöntemine göre daha büyük değerlerin hesaplandığı görülmüştür. Elde edilen sonuçlar incelendiğinde kuraklık değerlendirmesi için SPI yöntemine göre hesaplanan ekstrem olayların fazla olması nedeni ile dikkatli kullanılması, SPI yöntemi yerine sıcaklığın da etkisinin göz önüne alındığı SPEI yönteminin tercih edilebileceği değerlendirilmektedir.

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Assessing the Probability of Drought Severity in a Homogeneous Region

Cited by 9 publications

References 42 publications

A New Comprehensive Framework for Identifying and Monitoring the Interseasonal Characteristics of Meteorological Drought

A New Comprehensive Framework for Identifying and Monitoring the Interseasonal Characteristics of Meteorological Drought

Characterization of Meteorological Drought Using Monte Carlo Feature Selection and Steady‐State Probabilities

Van ilinin kuraklığının SPI ve SPEI yöntemlerine göre değerlendirilmesi

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