Assessing the potential for Bluetongue virus 8 to spread and vaccination strategies in Scotland

Bessell, Paul R.; Searle, Kate R.; Auty, Harriet; Handel, Ian; Purse, Bethan V.; Bronsvoort, Barend M. deC.

doi:10.1038/srep38940

Cited by 15 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…During the bluetongue virus serotype 8 epidemic in 2006 to 2009, some European Union Member States adopted voluntary vaccination schemes (Wilson and Mellor, ). Outbreaks in France continued to be reported in 2016 and animal health authorities in the UK have been considering whether vaccination strategies should be implemented, and in what form (Bessell et al ., ; Roberts et al ., ). Voluntary approaches are more flexible in terms of legislation and can also be effective at lower costs, provided that farmers are willing to participate (Segerson, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 96%

Farmers’ Preferences For Bluetongue Vaccination Scheme Attributes: An Integrated Choice and Latent Variable Approach

Sok¹,

Lans²,

Hogeveen³

et al. 2017

J Agricultural Economics

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Re-emergence of the bluetongue disease in Europe poses a continuous threat to European livestock production. Large-scale vaccination is the most effective intervention to control virus spread. Compared to command-and-control approaches, voluntary vaccination approaches can be effective at lower costs, provided that farmers are willing to participate. We use a discrete choice experiment to estimate the preferences for vaccination scheme attributes, accounting for preference heterogeneity via an integrated choice and latent variable approach. In designing livestock disease control schemes, it is often argued that governments should use financial, incentive-based policy instruments to compensate farmers for externalities, assuming they act in rational self-interest. Our results suggest that in addition to economic motives, farmers can have intrinsic or social motives to invest in livestock disease control. Implications for the effectiveness of providing subsidy or information to motivate voluntary participation are discussed.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 96%

Farmers’ Preferences For Bluetongue Vaccination Scheme Attributes: An Integrated Choice and Latent Variable Approach

Sok¹,

Lans²,

Hogeveen³

et al. 2017

J Agricultural Economics

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“…These two viruses are biologically transmitted by females of several species of Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) biting midges. Bluetongue is distributed worldwide, affecting almost all continents (except Antarctica) while AHS occurs in sub-Saharan Africa, with rare incursions into Europe and Asia [ 1 – 3 ]. The importance of these two arboviral diseases derives from their potential for rapid spread and their major economic impact due to direct mortalities, restriction of animal movements, surveillance and vaccination costs, as shown by the recent outbreaks of BT in Europe [ 4 – 6 ] and AHS in Africa [ 7 , 8 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial distribution modelling of Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) biting midges, potential vectors of African horse sickness and bluetongue viruses in Senegal

Diarra

Fall

et al. 2018

Parasites Vectors

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BackgroundIn Senegal, the last epidemic of African horse sickness (AHS) occurred in 2007. The western part of the country (the Niayes area) concentrates modern farms with exotic horses of high value and was highly affected during the 2007 outbreak that has started in the area. Several studies were initiated in the Niayes area in order to better characterize Culicoides diversity, ecology and the impact of environmental and climatic data on dynamics of proven and suspected vectors. The aims of this study are to better understand the spatial distribution and diversity of Culicoides in Senegal and to map their abundance throughout the country.MethodsCulicoides data were obtained through a nationwide trapping campaign organized in 2012. Two successive collection nights were carried out in 96 sites in 12 (of 14) regions of Senegal at the end of the rainy season (between September and October) using OVI (Onderstepoort Veterinary Institute) light traps. Three different modeling approaches were compared: the first consists in a spatial interpolation by ordinary kriging of Culicoides abundance data. The two others consist in analyzing the relation between Culicoides abundance and environmental and climatic data to model abundance and investigate the environmental suitability; and were carried out by implementing generalized linear models and random forest models.ResultsA total of 1,373,929 specimens of the genus Culicoides belonging to at least 32 different species were collected in 96 sites during the survey. According to the RF (random forest) models which provided better estimates of abundances than Generalized Linear Models (GLM) models, environmental and climatic variables that influence species abundance were identified. Culicoides imicola, C. enderleini and C. miombo were mostly driven by average rainfall and minimum and maximum normalized difference vegetation index. Abundance of C. oxystoma was mostly determined by average rainfall and day temperature. Culicoides bolitinos had a particular trend; the environmental and climatic variables above had a lesser impact on its abundance. RF model prediction maps for the first four species showed high abundance in southern Senegal and in the groundnut basin area, whereas C. bolitinos was present in southern Senegal, but in much lower abundance.ConclusionsEnvironmental and climatic variables of importance that influence the spatial distribution of species abundance were identified. It is now crucial to evaluate the vector competence of major species and then combine the vector densities with densities of horses to quantify the risk of transmission of AHS virus across the country.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1186/s13071-018-2920-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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“…Previous models of BT transmission in the UK have investigated different incursion scenarios 20,21 and control strategies 22–24 with incursion (and hence vaccination) generally limited to the south coast of England or the counties of Scotland bordering England 25 . Our results suggest that targeting vaccination in counties in the west of England, which were associated with the largest median outbreak sizes in our simulations, could reduce the potential for large outbreaks in England.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The effect of temperature, farm density and foot-and-mouth disease restrictions on the 2007 UK bluetongue outbreak

Turner

Jones

Heath

et al. 2019

Sci Rep

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In 2006, bluetongue (BT), a disease of ruminants, was introduced into northern Europe for the first time and more than two thousand farms across five countries were affected. In 2007, BT affected more than 35,000 farms in France and Germany alone. By contrast, the UK outbreak beginning in 2007 was relatively small, with only 135 farms in southeast England affected. We use a model to investigate the effects of three factors on the scale of BT outbreaks in the UK: (1) place of introduction; (2) temperature; and (3) animal movement restrictions. Our results suggest that the UK outbreak could have been much larger had the infection been introduced into the west of England either directly or as a result of the movement of infected animals from southeast England before the first case was detected. The fact that air temperatures in the UK in 2007 were marginally lower than average probably contributed to the UK outbreak being relatively small. Finally, our results indicate that BT movement restrictions are effective at controlling the spread of infection. However, foot-and-mouth disease restrictions in place before the detection and control of BT in 2007 almost certainly helped to limit BT spread prior to its detection.

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Assessing the potential for Bluetongue virus 8 to spread and vaccination strategies in Scotland

Cited by 15 publications

References 41 publications

Farmers’ Preferences For Bluetongue Vaccination Scheme Attributes: An Integrated Choice and Latent Variable Approach

Farmers’ Preferences For Bluetongue Vaccination Scheme Attributes: An Integrated Choice and Latent Variable Approach

Spatial distribution modelling of Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) biting midges, potential vectors of African horse sickness and bluetongue viruses in Senegal

The effect of temperature, farm density and foot-and-mouth disease restrictions on the 2007 UK bluetongue outbreak

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