Assessing the impacts of climate change on the water resources of the Seyhan River Basin in Turkey: Use of dynamically downscaled data for hydrologic simulations

Fujihara, Yoichi; Tanaka, Kenji; Watanabe, Teiji; Nagano, Takanori; Kojiri, Toshiharu

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.01.024

Cited by 167 publications

(81 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…Snow parameterizations in some dynamically downscaled models can be very coarse, and they vary considerably from RCM to RCM, but linking the RCM with a sophisticated snow cover model may improve understanding of projected future changes, based on global warming scenarios, in the characteristics of snow extremes (Fujihara et al 2008). Evaluation of such climatic variable interrelationships would also improve our understanding of sources of climate downscaling uncertainty'; for agricultural examples, see Iizumi et al (2008).…”

Section: Evaluation Of Downscaling Assumptions Andmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reconsidering the Quality and Utility of Downscaling

Takayabu¹,

Kanamaru

Dairaku

et al. 2016

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

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Dynamical downscaling (DDS) is performed using regional climate models (RCMs) with global atmospheric states as the input, but there is no consensus among researchers on how to define and estimate the resolvable scale of the various climatic variables obtained by DDS. Sources of RCM uncertainties, including both internal model and intermodel variability, have been assessed by performing ensemble simulations and model intercomparisons, sometimes under the controversial assumption that model bias is independent of the climatic state. Compared with low-resolution global climate simulations, DDS can add value in several ways. For example, because they consider high-resolution topographic data, RCMs can often capture mesoscale phenomena and can better represent climate dynamics. Another downscaling method, empirical statistical downscaling (ESD), is complementary to DDS because it is based on a different philosophy (i.e., sources of information) and on a mostly different set of assumptions. More collaboration and communication should be encouraged among those who develop models, those who use models and perform downscaling, those who use downscaling data, and those who make decisions

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Section: Evaluation Of Downscaling Assumptions Andmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reconsidering the Quality and Utility of Downscaling

Takayabu¹,

Kanamaru

Dairaku

et al. 2016

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

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“…Several studies have reported impacts of climate change on the water resources of Turkey and have reported a decrease in the projected precipitation. The projected decreases in precipitation have been reported to vary from 5 to 25 % (Yano et al 2007;Fujihara et al 2008;Evans 2009;Tayanc et al 2009;Hemming et al 2010). Durdu (2010) characterized the effects of climate change on water resources in the Buyuk Menderes River Basin in western Turkey based on 45 years of data .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the Eastern Mediterranean Coast of Turkey, precipitation is projected to decrease by about 16-25 % during the period of 1990-2100 (Yano et al 2007). Fujihara et al (2008) report decreases in precipitation, evapotranspiration, and annual runoff by 25, 9, and 52 %, respectively, using dynamic downscaled data in the Seyhan River Basin in southern Turkey under IPCC's SRES-A2 scenario. Given these anticipated changes, understanding of complex climate-water relationships is clearly crucial for development of a sustainable integrated watershed management (IWM) strategy in Turkey.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrologic impacts of climate and land-use change on Namnam Stream in Koycegiz Watershed, Turkey

Baloch

Ames

Tanık

2014

Int. J. Environ. Sci. Technol.

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The effects of land-use and climate change on the hydrologic regime of the Namnam Stream in the Koycegiz Watershed, Turkey, are quantified using a hydrologic simulation modeling system under a number of real and potential scenarios. The study shows that urbanization has induced severe modification in the magnitude, frequency, and duration of extreme flow conditions. The mean annual flows increased by 5-60 % due to 0.1-50 % increase in impervious surfaces. Additionally, confounding climate change impacts include an increase in low flow pulses of 2 % when considering a decrease in precipitation by 20 % and a decrease in low flow pulses of 12 % when considering a 20 % increase in precipitation. The watershed system under investigation is significantly more sensitive to climate change scenarios involving additional inputs of precipitation compared with scenarios involving reductions in precipitation and that these changes are compounded in the presence of major land-use change. These results suggest the need for erosion control, nutrient management and habitat conservation in light of rapid urbanization, as often typified in developing countries, and potential climate change to conserve essential watershed functions.

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“…A demand-driven dam management model adapted from Fujihara et al (2008) was set up and applied to the Salagou dam in the Hérault Basin and to 11 major dams or groups of dams in the Ebro Basin (see Fig. 3).…”

Section: Modeling Dam Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulating past changes in the balance between water demand and availability and assessing their main drivers at the river basin scale

Fabre

Ruelland

Dezetter

et al. 2015

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. In this study we present an integrative modeling framework aimed at assessing the balance between water demand and availability and its spatial and temporal variability over long time periods. The model was developed and tested over the period 1971-2009 in the Hérault (2500 km 2 , France) and the Ebro (85 000 km 2 , Spain) catchments. Natural streamflow was simulated using a conceptual hydrological model. The regulation of river flow was accounted for through a widely applicable demand-driven reservoir management model applied to the largest dam in the Hérault Basin and to 11 major dams in the Ebro Basin. Urban water demand was estimated from population and monthly unit water demand data. Water demand for irrigation was computed from irrigated area, crop and soil data, and climatic forcing. Water shortage was assessed at a 10-day time step by comparing water demand and availability through indicators calculated at strategic resource and demand nodes. The outcome of this study is twofold. First, we were able to correctly simulate variations in influenced streamflow, reservoir levels and water shortage between 1971 and 2009 in both basins, taking into account climatic and anthropogenic pressures and changes in water management strategies over time. Second, we provided information not available through simple data analysis on the influence of withdrawals and consumptive use on streamflow and on the drivers of imbalance between demand and availability. Observed past variations in discharge were explained by separating anthropogenic and climatic pressures in our simulations: 3 % (20 %) of the decrease in the Hérault (Ebro) discharge were linked to anthropogenic changes. Although key areas of the Hérault Basin were shown to be highly sensitive to hydro-climatic variability, the balance between water demand and availability in the Ebro Basin appears to be more critical, owing to high agricultural pressure on water resources. The modeling framework developed and tested in this study will be used to assess water balance under climatic and socioeconomic prospective scenarios and to investigate the effectiveness of adaptation policies aimed at maintaining the balance between water demand and availability.

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Assessing the impacts of climate change on the water resources of the Seyhan River Basin in Turkey: Use of dynamically downscaled data for hydrologic simulations

Cited by 167 publications

References 17 publications

Reconsidering the Quality and Utility of Downscaling

Reconsidering the Quality and Utility of Downscaling

Hydrologic impacts of climate and land-use change on Namnam Stream in Koycegiz Watershed, Turkey

Simulating past changes in the balance between water demand and availability and assessing their main drivers at the river basin scale

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