Assessing the impact of structural modifications in the construction of surveillance network for transboundary animal diseases: the role of backbone and sentinel nodes

Abstract

Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) is a highly contagious disease that mainly affects sheep and goats and is transmitted through livestock movements. Because of its socio-economic impact, the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) and the World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH) have set the goal to eradicate it by 2030, one of the key steps being the improvement of surveillance networks. The present study aimed to provide tools to identify areas that could serve as sentinel nodes, i.e. areas that may be rapidly infected at the onset of epidemics. Using data from a market survey conducted in the Northern Region of Nigeria, we analyzed which nodes, under which conditions, could serve as sentinel nodes. We considered several modified networks to get around the problem of data only being available for part of the overall network structure and to account for potential errors made during the field study. For each configuration, we simulated the spread of PPR using a stochastic Susceptible-Infectious (SI) model based on animal movements to assess the epidemics' extent and the presence of recurrent patterns to identify potential sentinel nodes. We extracted the backbone of the reference network and checked for the presence of sentinel nodes within it. We then explored the possibility of using the backbone nodes as sentinel nodes. We investigated how the origin (seed) of the epidemics could affect the propagation pattern by comparing and grouping seeds based on their respective transmission paths. Results showed that the isolated backbone contains 45% sentinel nodes that remain stable or undergo only minor changes in 9 out of 11 configurations. On top of that, the characteristics of sentinel nodes identified in the backbone are not influenced by the severity of the disease. The H index, in-degree, and eigenvector are the most essential variables. This study provides an overview of the major axes of animal movements in Nigeria and the most vulnerable locations that should be prioritized for monitoring livestock diseases like PPR.