Assessing the Impact of Land Use and Land Cover Data Representation on Weather Forecast Quality: A Case Study in Central Mexico

Abstract

In atmospheric modeling, an accurate representation of land cover is required because such information impacts water and energy budgets and, consequently, the performance of models in simulating regional climate. This study analyzes the impact of the land cover data on an operational weather forecasting system using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for central Mexico, with the aim of improving the quality of the operative forecast. Two experiments were conducted using different land cover datasets: a United States Geological Survey (USGS) map and an updated North American Land Change Monitoring System (NALCMS) map. The experiments were conducted as a daily 120 h forecast for each day of January, April, July, and September of 2012, and the near-surface temperature, wind speed, and hourly precipitation were analyzed. Both experiments were compared with observations from meteorological stations. The statistical analysis of this study showed that wind speed and near-surface temperature prediction may be further improved with the updated and more accurate NALCMS dataset, particularly in the forecast covering 48 to 72 h. The Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of the average wind speed reached a maximum reduction of up to 1.2 m s−1, whereas for the near-surface temperature there was a reduction of up to 0.6 °C. The RMSE of the average hourly precipitation was very similar between both experiments, however the location of precipitation was modified.

Sensitivity of Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Simulations to Changes in Land Cover Input Data: Role of Land Surface Characteristics for Temperature and Climate Extremes

“…These results strengthen the need for the correct mapping of land cover classes, which is needed for impact studies and forecasts. Several recent studies among other regions in the world called for the same conclusion (see for example Cao et al, 2015;Bhati and Mohan, 2018;Li et al, 2020;López-Espinoza et al, 2020;Glotfelty et al, 2021;Golzio et al, 2021).…”

The impacts of land use and land cover change on biophysical processes in West Africa using a regional climate model experimental approach

“…According to López‐Espinoza et al . (2020), the reduction in vegetation decreases evapotranspiration and its associated latent heat. This retains heat in the ground and the daily minimum temperature rises due to the reduction in one of the mechanisms by which the ground loses heat.…”

“…Surface reflectance has a significant role in how the atmosphere interacts with land and ocean surfaces, as it substantially influences the absorption of shortwave radiation. Change in albedo is one of the principal factors that affect temperature (López‐Espinoza et al ., 2020). A decrease in albedo would result into a reduction in the quantity of the reflected shortwave radiation to the atmosphere, which consequently increases the amount of shortwave radiation that is absorbed.…”

Impact of High-Resolution Land Cover on Simulation of a Warm-Sector Torrential Rainfall Event in Guangzhou

“…Ref. [7] found that from vegetation cover to urban cover, the corresponding temperature increases from 0.5 to 5.0 • C. Refs. [8,9] demonstrated that a decrease in forest and farmland areas, as well as an increase in low-density urban areas, leads to an increase in ground sensible heat flux and a decrease in latent heat flux, resulting in a decrease in dew point, an increase in cloud base height, and a decrease in precipitation.…”