Assessing the Impact of Energy-related Sanctions on Russia and Their Consequences for Europe

Abstract

This research paper investigates the impact of energy-related sanctions on the European energy sector in light of the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict. The study analyzes the S600ENP index returns using data from June 2018 to July 2023, divided into three distinct periods: pre-invasion, during sanctions, and post-sanctions. Descriptive statistics and distribution analysis reveal distinct market behaviors and volatility clustering during each period. The analysis of variance (ANOVA) test does not show significant differences in mean returns across the periods, indicating relatively consistent index performance. The stationarity test suggests non-stationarity in the index returns. The ARCH model demonstrates the persistence of volatility shocks influenced by geopolitical events like Russian sanctions. The findings underscore the importance of understanding market dynamics during geopolitical uncertainty and its implications for the European energy sector. Though the representation of the S600ENP index limits the research, future studies can explore alternative datasets and periods for more comprehensive insights.