Assessing the flooding susceptibility of river catchments to extreme rainfall in the United Kingdom

Collier, C. G.; Fox, Neil I.

doi:10.1080/15715124.2003.9635209

Cited by 30 publications

(54 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…The employed scoring model resembles the Flooding Susceptibility Assessment approach proposed by Collier and Fox (2003). The method is twofold; first, a baseline susceptibility is derived, based on morphological features, e.g., slope, land cover, etc.…”

Section: Scoring Model (Scohm)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Small-scale (flash) flood early warning in the light of operational requirements: opportunities and limits with regard to user demands, driving data, and hydrologic modeling techniques

et al. 2016

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Abstract. In recent years, the Free State of Saxony (Eastern Germany) was repeatedly hit by both extensive riverine flooding, as well as flash flood events, emerging foremost from convective heavy rainfall. Especially after a couple of small-scale, yet disastrous events in 2010, preconditions, drivers, and methods for deriving flash flood related early warning products are investigated. This is to clarify the feasibility and the limits of envisaged early warning procedures for small catchments, hit by flashy heavy rain events. Early warning about potentially flash flood prone situations (i.e., with a suitable lead time with regard to required reaction-time needs of the stakeholders involved in flood risk management) needs to take into account not only hydrological, but also meteorological, as well as communication issues. Therefore, we propose a threefold methodology to identify potential benefits and limitations in a real-world warning/reaction context. First, the user demands (with respect to desired/required warning products, preparation times, etc.) are investigated. Second, focusing on small catchments of some hundred square kilometers, two quantitative precipitation forecasts are verified. Third, considering the user needs, as well as the input parameter uncertainty (i.e., foremost emerging from an uncertain QPF), a feasible, yet robust hydrological modeling approach is proposed on the basis of pilot studies, employing deterministic, data-driven, and simple scoring methods.

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Section: Scoring Model (Scohm)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Small-scale (flash) flood early warning in the light of operational requirements: opportunities and limits with regard to user demands, driving data, and hydrologic modeling techniques

et al. 2016

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“…Some recent studies suggest the limitations of FFG (Norbiato et al, 2008;Montesarchio et al, 2011;Gourley et al, 2012). The limitations of FFG are in the assumptions of spatially-temporally uniform rainfall and linear response and the use of regional relationships to make inferences about ungauged locations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Flash flood susceptibility assessment can be considered a useful first step in determining the contributing factors to the flash flood vulnerability (possibility of flash flood occurrence and degree of danger) of a catchment using limited data (Collier and Fox, 2003). The flow comparison method compares the model-driven flow value with the observed flooding threshold, which is a criterion for deciding whether flooding should be expected or not.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development of a precipitation–area curve for warning criteria of short-duration flash flood

Bae

Lee

Moon

2018

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. This paper presents quantitative criteria for flash flood warning that can be used to rapidly assess flash flood occurrence based on only rainfall estimates. This study was conducted for 200 small mountainous sub-catchments of the Han River basin in South Korea because South Korea has recently suffered many flash flood events. The quantitative criteria are calculated based on flash flood guidance (FFG), which is defined as the depth of rainfall of a given duration required to cause frequent flooding (1-2-year return period) at the outlet of a small stream basin and is estimated using threshold runoff (TR) and antecedent soil moisture conditions in all sub-basins. The soil moisture conditions were estimated during the flooding season, i.e., July, August and September, over 7 years (2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)) using the Sejong University Rainfall Runoff (SURR) model. A ROC (receiver operating characteristic) analysis was used to obtain optimum rainfall values and a generalized precipitation-area (P -A) curve was developed for flash flood warning thresholds. The threshold function was derived as a P -A curve because the precipitation threshold with a short duration is more closely related to basin area than any other variables. For a brief description of the P -A curve, generalized thresholds for flash flood warnings can be suggested for rainfall rates of 42, 32 and 20 mm h −1 in sub-basins with areas of 22-40, 40-100 and > 100 km 2 , respectively. The proposed P -A curve was validated based on observed flash flood events in different sub-basins. Flash flood occurrences were captured for 9 out of 12 events. This result can be used instead of FFG to identify brief flash flood (less than 1 h), and it can provide warning information to decision-makers or citizens that is relatively simple, clear and immediate.

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“…The reason for this is twofold. First, even though the recent efforts in meteorological observations provide relevant details on timing and location of convective storms (Collier and Fox 2003), the existing models (e.g. AROME or PANTHERE) do not yet predict rainfall intensities either with sufficient precision at fine scales (\10 km 2 ) or with sufficient advance warning (1 h).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The hydrological and geomorphological characteristics are quite similar to others occurring in other sedimentary areas, in western France (Auzet et al 1995) or in Flanders (Evrard et al 2007) for example, but are notably different to French Mediterranean floods. The latter occur in basins with higher slope gradients, larger basin area (ranging from 50 to 300 km 2 ) and are typically associated with higher rainfall intensities Collier and Fox 2003;Reid 2004;Barrera et al 2006;Ruin et al 2007;Ortega and Heydt 2009;Gaume et al 2009;Morin et al 2009;Marchi et al 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A flash flood hazard assessment in dry valleys (northern France) by cellular automata modelling

et al. 2014

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This paper presents an application of a cellular automaton-based run-off model (RUICELLS) to a series of small dry valleys in the Seine-Maritime department, northern France, to better assess their susceptibility to flash flood. These muddy floods shortly follow high rainfall (50-100 mm in less than 6 h) and occur in very small areas (\20 km 2 ). A surge generally rushes down through the main valley just a few minutes after rains have peaked. Previous events (n = 69, in the period 1983-2005) have occasionally threatened human lives and have caused significant damage to property and infrastructure. Nonetheless, given the variation among the valleys and the infrequency of events, these floods have not been numerous enough to permit a statistical analysis. Instead, we numerically simulate the possible future flash floods using RUICELLS, a cellular automaton model driven by a set of three deterministic hydrological rules. Simulations have been conducted for 148 basins, each subject to 16 different rainfall scenarios (2.368 simulations in total) to (1) estimate the peak flow discharges (Q), the specific peak flows (Q s ), and the lag times (T) of the flash floods and (2) 123Nat Hazards (2015) 75:2905-2929 DOI 10.1007/s11069-014-1470 warnings and increased vigilance. Our simulations indicate that the number of basins susceptible to flash flooding greatly increases with the higher rainfall intensity, the distribution of sensitive crops (sugar beet, corn, maize, and flax) and the basin morphology. Several small basins could also induce by convergence a bigger flood in the downstream humid valleys. The location of the highest simulated discharges is aligned with observed events, and this comparison provides an evaluation of the modelling performance and of the credibility of the results.

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Assessing the flooding susceptibility of river catchments to extreme rainfall in the United Kingdom

Cited by 30 publications

References 37 publications

Small-scale (flash) flood early warning in the light of operational requirements: opportunities and limits with regard to user demands, driving data, and hydrologic modeling techniques

Small-scale (flash) flood early warning in the light of operational requirements: opportunities and limits with regard to user demands, driving data, and hydrologic modeling techniques

Development of a precipitation–area curve for warning criteria of short-duration flash flood

A flash flood hazard assessment in dry valleys (northern France) by cellular automata modelling

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