Assessing the effect on flood frequency of land use change via hydrological simulation (with uncertainty)

Brath, Armando; Montanari, Alberto; Moretti, Greta

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.10.001

Cited by 279 publications

(155 citation statements)

References 26 publications

(32 reference statements)

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“…In this study, the effects of the changes in land use on peak flows are investigated by assessing if any changes can be identified in the observed peak flows of the paired catchments. A possible different approach would be to compare the observed peak flows and the peak flows which one could expect from an hydrological model simulated under a different land use scenario, as in, among others, Brath et al [2006] and Harrigan et al [2014]. Furthermore, in this study a variable which actually describes the dynamic evolution of the catchment land use is used rather than relying on time as a surrogate covariate.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Detection and attribution of urbanization effect on flood extremes using nonstationary flood‐frequency models

Prosdocimi

Kjeldsen

Miller

2015

Water Resources Research

177

111

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This study investigates whether long-term changes in observed series of high flows can be attributed to changes in land use via nonstationary flood-frequency analyses. A point process characterization of threshold exceedances is used, which allows for direct inclusion of covariates in the model; as well as a nonstationary model for block maxima series. In particular, changes in annual, winter, and summer block maxima and peaks over threshold extracted from gauged instantaneous flows records in two hydrologically similar catchments located in proximity to one another in northern England are investigated. The study catchment is characterized by large increases in urbanization levels in recent decades, while the paired control catchment has remained undeveloped during the study period . To avoid the potential confounding effect of natural variability, a covariate which summarizes key climatological properties is included in the flood-frequency model. A significant effect of the increasing urbanization levels on high flows is detected, in particular in the summer season. Point process models appear to be superior to block maxima models in their ability to detect the effect of the increase in urbanization levels on high flows.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Detection and attribution of urbanization effect on flood extremes using nonstationary flood‐frequency models

Prosdocimi

Kjeldsen

Miller

2015

Water Resources Research

177

111

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“…Prudhomme and Davies (2009) reported similar findings for four catchments in Britain. Additionally, the combined effects of climate change and anthropogenic land use change significantly aggravate the accuracy of hydrologic prediction associated with overall urban environmental management (Brath et al, 2006;Choi, 2008;Franczyk and Chang, 2009;Praskievicz and Chang 2009a;Tu, 2009). However, relatively few studies have examined the combined effects of climate change and urban development on the uncertainty of urban flood projections in catchments with different degrees of urban development.…”

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confidence: 99%

Quantifying uncertainty in urban flooding analysis considering hydro-climatic projection and urban development effects

Jung

Chang

Moradkhani

2011

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

104

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Abstract. How will the combined impacts of land use change, climate change, and hydrologic modeling influence changes in urban flood frequency and what is the main uncertainty source of the results? Will such changes differ by catchment with different degrees of current and future urban development? We attempt to answer these questions in two catchments with different degrees of urbanization, the Fanno catchment with 84% urban land use and the Johnson catchment with 36% urban land use, both located in the Pacific Northwest of the US. Five uncertainty sources -general circulation model (GCM) structures, future greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios, land use change scenarios, natural variability, and hydrologic model parameters -are considered to compare the relative source of uncertainty in flood frequency projections. Two land use change scenarios, conservation and development, representing possible future land use changes are used for analysis. Results show the highest increase in flood frequency under the combination of medium high GHG emission (A1B) and development scenarios, and the lowest increase under the combination of low GHG emission (B1) and conservation scenarios. Although the combined impact is more significant to flood frequency change than individual scenarios, it does not linearly increase flood frequency. Changes in flood frequency are more sensitive to climate change than land use change in the two catchments for 2050s . Shorter term flood frequency change, 2 and 5 year floods, is highly affected by GCM structure, while longer term flood frequency change above 25 year floods is dominated by natural variability. Projected flood frequency changes more significantly in Johnson creek than Fanno creek. This result indicates that, under expected Correspondence to: H. Chang (changh@pdx.edu) climate change conditions, adaptive urban planning based on the conservation scenario could be more effective in less developed Johnson catchment than in the already developed Fanno catchment.

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“…Data regarding the impact of various modifications on landscape and river network on runoff processes are currently available in the review by Calder (1993) and a documented series of case studies on various geographic environments (Brath, Montanari, and Moretti, 2006;Naef, Scherrer, and Weiler, 2002;Tu, Hall, de Laat, and de Wit, 2005). Various approaches have been utilized to analyze the effects of land use changes on runoff and flooding.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling the Impact of Land Cover Changes on Flood Mitigation in the Upper Lužnice Basin

Váňová¹,

Langhammer²

2011

Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics

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The study presented herein investigates the impact of simulated changes in land cover on rainfall-runoff conditions for the transboundary basin of the upper Lužnice. The HEC-HMS hydrological model was chosen for these simulations. Scenario models were used to simulate the impact of modifications in basin land cover with individual scenarios reflecting ground cover changes. The years 1990 and 2000, which are available in the CORINE Landcover database, were chosen as variants of river basin land cover. In addition, two theoretical versions of possible extreme variants in fundamental land cover changes -the conversion from agricultural land to grassland and the forestation of the river basin, with the exception of roads and bodies of water -were also included.Single day rainfall totals with a recurrence period of 10, 20, 50 and 100 years were selected to calculate the volume of runoff and culmination discharge. These results demonstrate a clear decrease in the degree of impact of land cover structure on runoff conditions, increasing with the magnitude of precipitation. Článek představuje výsledky simulace vlivu zm n krajinného krytu na srážko-odtokové pom ry v přes-hraničním povodí horní Lužnice. Pro modelování byl vybrán hydrologický model HEC-HMS. K modelování vlivu zm n krajinného pokryvu povodí byla použita metoda scénářového modelování, kde se v jednotlivých scénářích m ní krajinný pokryv. Jako varianty krajinného pokryvu povodí byly zvoleny roky 1990 a 2000, pro které je k dispozici databáze CORINE Landcover, a dále dv teoretické krajní varianty možných variant zm n struktury krajinného krytu -zatravn ní zem d lské půdy a zalesn ní povodí krom intravilánů, komunikací a vodních ploch.Pro výpočet objemů odtoků a kulminačních průtoků byly vybrány jednodenní návrhové srážkové úhrny s pravd podobností opakování 10, 20, 50 a 100 let. Z výsledků simulace je zřejmý pokles vlivu struktury krajinného pokryvu na odtokové pom ry se vzrůstající extremitou srážky.

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Assessing the effect on flood frequency of land use change via hydrological simulation (with uncertainty)

Cited by 279 publications

References 26 publications

Detection and attribution of urbanization effect on flood extremes using nonstationary flood‐frequency models

Detection and attribution of urbanization effect on flood extremes using nonstationary flood‐frequency models

Quantifying uncertainty in urban flooding analysis considering hydro-climatic projection and urban development effects

Modelling the Impact of Land Cover Changes on Flood Mitigation in the Upper Lužnice Basin

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