Assessing the effect of wind power uncertainty on profitability

Gass, V.; Strauss, Franziska; Schmidt, Johannes; Schmid, Erwin

doi:10.1016/j.rser.2011.01.024

Cited by 42 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…The LCOE is calculated following Equation (1) [59], and NPV is calculated following Equation (2) [60]. The IRR provides the discount rate at which NPV is equal to zero and therefore it is calculated by solving Equation (2) for the discount rate equal to the IRR and NPV equal to 0 [60].…”

Section: Economic Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Technical, Economical and Social Assessment of Photovoltaics in the Frame of the Net-Metering Law for the Province of Salta, Argentina

et al. 2016

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Central and Northern Argentinean regions possess a high potential for the generation of solar energy. The realization of this potential is an alternative to alleviate the strong dependence on imports of fossil energy and to reduce the CO 2 emissions of the country. However, the adoption of photovoltaics (PV) is still in an incipient state. It is undermined by a context of heavily subsidized electricity prices, high equipment and installation costs and a lack of information, training and experience in handling PV technology. This paper presents a techno-economical assessment of the application of the recently enacted net-metering law for promoting renewable energies (RE) in the Province of Salta (Northwest Argentina) for the case of PV. The assessment shows under which conditions and for which types of consumers it is profitable to adopt PV in the context of the law. This analysis is supported by a participatory planning approach as a study of stakeholders' attitudes towards RE, intentions to adopt PV and their knowledge about the law. The results of this study and the economical analysis serve to provide recommendations aimed at increasing the level of PV adoption in the province.

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Section: Economic Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The IRR provides the discount rate at which NPV is equal to zero and therefore it is calculated by solving Equation (2) for the discount rate equal to the IRR and NPV equal to 0 [60].…”

Section: Economic Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Technical, Economical and Social Assessment of Photovoltaics in the Frame of the Net-Metering Law for the Province of Salta, Argentina

et al. 2016

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“…Bensoussan et al [14] analyze the process of calculating AEP in relation to uncertainties and find the methods overestimate by around 9% for a single year and around 4% for 20 years. The actual AEP of sites differs often from the prediction made before construction [15], and the author shows how that affects the profitability of the site. The main cause is often incorrect wind speed estimation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

A Method for Estimating Annual Energy Production Using Monte Carlo Wind Speed Simulation

2016

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Abstract:A novel Monte Carlo (MC) approach is proposed for the simulation of wind speed samples to assess the wind energy production potential of a site. The Monte Carlo approach is based on historical wind speed data and reserves the effect of autocorrelation and seasonality in wind speed observations. No distributional assumptions are made, and this approach is relatively simple in comparison to simulation methods that aim at including the autocorrelation and seasonal effects. Annual energy production (AEP) is simulated by transforming the simulated wind speed values via the power curve of the wind turbine at the site. The proposed Monte Carlo approach is generic and is applicable for all sites provided that a sufficient amount of wind speed data and information on the power curve are available. The simulated AEP values based on the Monte Carlo approach are compared to both actual AEP and to simulated AEP values based on a modified Weibull approach for wind speed simulation using data from the Burfell site in Iceland. The comparison reveals that the simulated AEP values based on the proposed Monte Carlo approach have a distribution that is in close agreement with actual AEP from two test wind turbines at the Burfell site, while the simulated AEP of the Weibull approach is such that the P50 and the scale are substantially lower and the P90 is higher. Thus, the Weibull approach yields AEP that is not in line with the actual variability in AEP, while the Monte Carlo approach gives a realistic estimate of the distribution of AEP.

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“…With regard to the impacts of wind power integration, there are generally two categories, i.e., economic impacts [10][11][12][13] and technical impacts [14][15][16][17][18][19]. In this paper, the issue we are going to study is the economic impact.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Furthermore, the economic impact of wind power integration on multiple subjects of electric power system can be studied from two perspectives, namely Externality and Quasipublic goods property. Some studies about the economic impacts of wind power integration have been done from the Externality perspective [10][11][12][20][21][22]. However, to the best of our knowledge, few studies that assess the economic impacts of wind power integration on multiple subjects of electric power system from the Quasi-public goods property perspective have been reported in the literatures.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic Impact Assessment of Wind Power Integration: A Quasi-Public Goods Property Perspective

Zhao

Guo

2015

Energies

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Abstract:The integration of wind power into power grid will bring some impacts on the multiple subjects of electric power system. Economic impacts of wind power integration on multiple subjects of China's electric power system were quantitatively assessed from Quasi-public goods property perspective in this paper. Firstly, the Quasi-public goods property of transmission services provided by power grid corporations was elaborated. Secondly, the multiple subjects of China's electric power system, which include electricity generation enterprises (EGEs), power grid corporations (PGCs), electricity consumers (ECs), and environment, were detailed analyzed. Thirdly, based on the OPF-based nodal price model and transmission service cost allocation model, the economic impact assessment model of wind power integration was built from Quasi-public goods property perspective. Then, the IEEE-24 bus system employed in this paper was introduced according to current status of China's electric power system, and the modeling of wind turbine was also introduced. Finally, the simulation analysis was performed, and the economic impacts of wind power integration on EGEs, PGCs, ECs and Environment were calculated. The results indicate, from Quasi-public goods property perspective, the wind power integration will bring positive impacts on EGEs, PGCs and Environment, while negative impacts on ECs. The findings can provide references for power system managers, energy planners, and policy makers.

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Assessing the effect of wind power uncertainty on profitability

Cited by 42 publications

References 20 publications

Technical, Economical and Social Assessment of Photovoltaics in the Frame of the Net-Metering Law for the Province of Salta, Argentina

Technical, Economical and Social Assessment of Photovoltaics in the Frame of the Net-Metering Law for the Province of Salta, Argentina

A Method for Estimating Annual Energy Production Using Monte Carlo Wind Speed Simulation

Economic Impact Assessment of Wind Power Integration: A Quasi-Public Goods Property Perspective

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