Assessing the Ecological Risks Based on the Three-Dimensional Ecological Footprint Model in Gansu Province

Abstract

It has become a hot topic in sustainable development to determine how to use data series to predict the trajectory of ecological footprints (EFs), precisely map biocapacity (BC), and effectively analyze regional sustainability. The sustainability of the ecological system in Gansu province must be investigated because the province is situated in western China and serves as a significant economic and transportation hub. We used the EF model to compute the per capita EF and BC of Gansu province from 2010 to 2020. We created a three-dimensional ecological footprint (EF3D) model by incorporating the ecological footprint size (EFsize) and ecological footprint depth (EFdepth) into the EF model and the EF3D of Gansu province from 2010 to 2020 was measured. The EF3D value was estimated using the gray GM (1, 1) prediction model in order to determine the sustainability condition of Gansu province during the next ten years. Finally, the risk of ecosystem loss in the province of Gansu was ultimately assessed using an ecological risk model (EVR). The results show that Gansu province’s per capita EF and BC displayed generally rising trends and the province is experiencing unsustainable development. The region’s projected future consumption of natural capital was estimated by the results, and the EF3D of Gansu province is expected to increase significantly in the future. These findings have a certain reference value for adjusting the industrial structure and utilizing resources in Gansu province. Furthermore, these findings will assist Gansu province in achieving sustainable development policy recommendations.

Assessing Environmental Sustainability Based on the Three-Dimensional Emergy Ecological Footprint (3D EEF) Model: A Case Study of Gansu Province, China

“…We discovered that the percentage of the building land among the six land types is an important indicator of the influence on the footprint, and, in 2020, for example, the share of the building land in the eef reached 49%, much greater than the other five land types. This also represented Gansu Province's rapid economic development over the previous 20 years, the quickening process of industrialization and modernization, and the necessity to adapt the industrial structure in a timely way at the appropriate time as shown by research [39].…”

“…Gansu Province is a vast area with complex and diverse landscapes. The terrain is elongated, and it is 1659 km long from east to west and 530 km broad from north to south, occupying 4.72% of the total area of China [39]. Most altitudes are above 1000 m, with the most prominent mountain ranges including the Qilian Mountains and the Liupan Mountains.…”

“…Chen's study took the Cingjing Region of Taiwan as the research object and made use of the EEF model to assess the ecological environmental security of the region from 2008 to 2014 and the gray model (GM) to predict the EC from 2015 to 2024 [38]. Liu et al established a 3D EF model and used the GM (1, 1) model to measure the state of the ecological environment in Gansu Province from 2020 to 2030 and, finally, constructed an ecological risk model to make a reasonable assessment of the risk of loss to the ecosystem in the region [39]. The calculation process is relatively simple and has a high prediction accuracy with small data samples.…”

Carbon Safety Assessment based on Tourism Carbon Footprint and Tourism Carbon Capacity Model in Gansu Province

“…Gansu is the seventh largest province in China. However, with the rapid development of our society, the natural resources of Gansu are seriously contaminated due to human activities [13].To investigate the sustainable development tourism industry in Gansu Province, this study calculated the tourism carbon footprint and tourism carbon capacity of Gansu Province in 2019 and 2020. Corresponding results may provide available measures and recommendations for balance the ecological environment and the development of tourism industry.…”