Assessing the Climatological Relationship between Heatstroke Risk and Heat Stress Indices in 47 Prefectures in Japan

Abstract

This study provides a decade-long link between summer heatstroke incidence and certain heat stress indices in 47 prefectures of Japan. The results for each prefecture were determined from the age-adjusted heatstroke incidence rate (TRadj) with heatstroke patients transported by ambulance, as well as from the daily maximum temperature (TEMPmax), maximum wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGTmax), and maximum universal thermal climate index (UTCImax) recorded from July to September of 2010–2019. The UTCImax relatively increased the vulnerability in many prefectures of northern Japan more distinctly than the other indices. In the following analysis, the ratio of the TRadj of the hottest to coolest months using the UTCImax was defined as the heatstroke risk of the hottest to coolest (HRHC). Overall, the HRHC varied approximately from 20 to 40 in many prefectures in the past decade. In contrast, for the same analysis performed in each month, HRHC ratios in July and August fell within 2–4 in many prefectures, whereas in September, the average and maximum HRHC ratios for all prefectures were 7.0 and 32.4, respectively. This difference can be related to the large difference in UTCImax between the maximum and minimum for a decade.

Launching criteria of ‘Heatstroke Alert’ in Japan according to regionality and age group

“…Various studies have analyzed the relationship between the number of patients with heatstroke and the daily maximum temperature, WBGT, or UTCI in Japan (Tamura et al 1995, Fuse et al 2014, Kodera et al 2019, Ikeda and Kusaka 2021, Iwamoto and Ohashi 2021, Oka and Hijioka 2021 and developed the exponential model defined in equation (1).…”