Assessing the causes of diversification slowdowns: temperature‐dependent and diversity‐dependent models receive equivalent support

Condamine, Fabien L.; Rolland, Jonathan; Morlon, Hélène

doi:10.1111/ele.13382

Cited by 114 publications

(199 citation statements)

References 90 publications

(156 reference statements)

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“…Establishing a relationship between climate and evolutionary processes stems from elucidating the role of temperature on clades' diversification (47). The observation that climate change has a role over biodiversity dynamics is not surprising in light of recent research that has demonstrated substantial temperature-dependent variations in other marine groups (5,10,17,46,48,49), but also on terrestrial groups (9,49). However, our study extends previous results that reported the impact of temperature on speciation rates (sometimes on extinction rates) as we report that temperaturedriven extinction, exceeding speciation, could have participated in the evolutionary decline of lamniforms.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate cooling and clade competition likely drove the decline of lamniform sharks

Condamine

Romieu

Guinot

2019

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Understanding heterogeneity in species richness between closely related clades is a key research question in ecology and evolutionary biology. Multiple hypotheses have been proposed to interpret such diversity contrasts across the tree of life, with most studies focusing on speciation rates to explain clades’ evolutionary radiations, while often neglecting extinction rates. Here we study a notorious biological model as exemplified by the sister relationships between mackerel sharks (Lamniformes, 15 extant species) and ground sharks (Carcharhiniformes, ∼290 extant species). Using a comprehensive fossil dataset, we found that the diversity dynamics of lamniforms waxed and waned following repeated cycles of radiation phases and declining phases. Radiation phases peaked up to 3 times the current diversity in the early Late Cretaceous. In the last 20 million years, the group declined to its present-day diversity. Along with a higher extinction risk for young species, we further show that this declining pattern is likely attributed to a combination of abiotic and biotic factors, with a cooling-driven extinction (negative correlation between temperature and extinction) and clade competition with some ground sharks. Competition from multiple clades successively drove the demise and replacement of mackerel sharks due to a failure to originate facing the rise of ground sharks, particularly since the Eocene. These effects came from ecologically similar carcharhiniform species inhibiting diversification of medium- and large-sized lamniforms. These results imply that the interplay between abiotic and biotic drivers had a substantial role in extinction and speciation, respectively, which determines the sequential rise and decline of marine apex predators.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate cooling and clade competition likely drove the decline of lamniform sharks

Condamine

Romieu

Guinot

2019

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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“…Additionally, we corroborate that extinction erases the signature of declining rates in reconstructed trees (Rabosky & Lovette ; Liow et al ). Thus, commonly observed slowdowns in real phylogenies (McPeek ; Phillimore & Price ; Morlon et al ) might not necessarily be indicative of ecological modes of diversification but of other mechanisms (Moen & Morlon 2014; Condamine et al in press). Our results suggest that increasing extinction rate could be another mark of adaptive radiations (as proposed in previous studies, e.g.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding the effect of competition during evolutionary radiations: an integrated model of phenotypic and species diversification

Aristide

Morlon

2019

Ecology Letters

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Competition can drive macroevolutionary change, for example during adaptive radiations. However, we still lack a clear understanding of how it shapes diversification processes and patterns. To better understand the macroevolutionary consequences of competition, as well as the signal left on phylogenetic data, we developed a model linking trait evolution and species diversification in an ecological context. We find four main results: first, competition spurs trait diversity but not necessarily species richness; second, competition produces slowdowns in species diversification even in the absence of explicit ecological limits, but not in phenotypic diversification even in the presence of such limits; third, early burst patterns do not provide a reliable way of testing for adaptive radiations; and fourth, looking for phylogenetic signal in trait data and support for phenotypic models incorporating competition is a better alternative. Our results clarify the macroevolutionary consequences of competition and could help design more powerful tests of adaptive radiations in nature.

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“…Exponential time-dependencies have been used, for example, to mimic early burst patterns expected from adaptive radiation theory 6 , or as an approximation to diversity-dependent cladogenesis 7 . In the context of the environment-dependent models mentioned by Louca & Pennell 2 , functional hypotheses have often been derived from foundational theories of biodiversity, such as the metabolic theory of biodiversity 8…”

Section: Main Textmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prior hypotheses or regularization allow inference of diversification histories from extant timetrees

Morlon

Härtig

Robin

2020

Preprint

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AbstractPhylogenies of extant species are widely used to study past diversification dynamics1. The most common approach is to formulate a set of candidate models representing evolutionary hypotheses for how and why speciation and extinction rates in a clade changed over time, and compare those models through their probability to have generated the corresponding empirical tree. Recently, Louca & Pennell2 reported the existence of an infinite number of ‘congruent’ models with potentially markedly different diversification dynamics, but equal likelihood, for any empirical tree (see also Lambert & Stadler3). Here we explore the implications of these results, and conclude that they neither undermine the hypothesis-driven model selection procedure widely used in the field nor show that speciation and extinction dynamics cannot be investigated from extant timetrees using a data-driven procedure.

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Assessing the causes of diversification slowdowns: temperature‐dependent and diversity‐dependent models receive equivalent support

Cited by 114 publications

References 90 publications

Climate cooling and clade competition likely drove the decline of lamniform sharks

Climate cooling and clade competition likely drove the decline of lamniform sharks

Understanding the effect of competition during evolutionary radiations: an integrated model of phenotypic and species diversification

Prior hypotheses or regularization allow inference of diversification histories from extant timetrees

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