Abstract:<p>European winter storms are a significant threat to communities, public infrastructure, and private and commercial properties. On seasonal timescales, potential predictability was evidenced in recent state-of-the-art seasonal hindcast suites e.g., the UK Met Office&#8217;s GloSea5. Related positive and potentially usable forecast skill for frequency and intensity measures were based on pre-season model initialisation around the beginning of November for the following core winter (DJF) s… Show more
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