Assessing storm surge impacts on coastal inundation due to climate change: case studies of Baltimore and Dorchester County in Maryland

Li, Ming; Zhang, Fan; Samuel, Barnes,; Wang, Xiaohong

doi:10.1007/s11069-020-04096-4

Cited by 34 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 108 publications

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“…More than one-third of the US gross national product is generated in the coastal zone (Marra et al, 2007). Recent catastrophic events such as Hurricanes Katrina in 2005, Sandy in 2012, and Florence in 2018 have shown that coastal communities are at great risk of coastal inundation caused by storm surges and sea-level rise (Li et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sediment Exchange Between the Created Saltmarshes of Living Shorelines and Adjacent Submersed Aquatic Vegetation in the Chesapeake Bay

2021

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Rising sea levels and the increased frequency of extreme events put coastal communities at serious risk. In response, shoreline armoring for stabilization has been widespread. However, this solution does not take the ecological aspects of the coasts into account. The “living shoreline” technique includes coastal ecology by incorporating natural habitat features, such as saltmarshes, into shoreline stabilization. However, the impacts of living shorelines on adjacent benthic communities, such as submersed aquatic vegetation (SAV), are not yet clear. In particular, while both marshes and SAV trap the sediment necessary for their resilience to environmental change, the synergies between the communities are not well-understood. To help quantify the ecological and protective (shoreline stabilization) aspects of living shorelines, we presented modeling results using the Delft3D-SWAN system on sediment transport between the created saltmarshes of the living shorelines and adjacent SAV in a subestuary of Chesapeake Bay. We used a double numerical approach to primarily validate deposition measurements made in the field and to further quantify the sediment balance between the two vegetation communities using an idealized model. This model used the same numerical domain with different wave heights, periods, and basin slopes and includes the presence of rip-rap, which is often used together with marsh plantings in living shorelines, to look at the influences of artificial structures on the sediment exchange between the plant communities. The results of this study indicated lower shear stress, lower erosion rates, and higher deposition rates within the SAV bed compared with the scenario with the marsh only, which helped stabilize bottom sediments by making the sediment balance positive in case of moderate wave climate (deposition within the two vegetations higher than the sediment loss). The presence of rip-rap resulted in a positive sediment balance, especially in the case of extreme events, where sediment balance was magnified. Overall, this study concluded that SAV helps stabilize bed level and shoreline, and rip-rap works better with extreme conditions, demonstrating how the right combination of natural and built solutions can work well in terms of ecology and coastal protection.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sediment Exchange Between the Created Saltmarshes of Living Shorelines and Adjacent Submersed Aquatic Vegetation in the Chesapeake Bay

2021

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“…Importantly, our results suggest that marshes can be managed for multiple bene ts, with grazing generally having only small in uences on wave attenuation and surge mitigation -indicating that maintaining or enhancing marsh extent, rather than grazing pressure, should be a priority for ood mitigation management. Looking ahead, as climate change is predicted to bring increasing frequencies 3 , and magnitudes 10,14,83 of large storms, with current 1 in 100 year storm water level events expected annually by 2100 84 , our results indicate that appropriate valuation and effective management of marshes is paramount to mitigate rising risks of ooding and its social and economic impacts.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 89%

Coastal wetlands mitigate storm flooding and associated costs in estuaries

Fairchild

Bennett

Smith

et al. 2021

Preprint

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As storm-driven coastal flooding increases under climate change, wetlands such as saltmarshes are held as a nature-based solution. Yet evidence supporting wetlands’ storm protection role in estuaries - where both waves and upstream surge drive coastal flooding - remains scarce. Here we address this gap using numerical hydrodynamic models within eight contextually diverse estuaries, simulating storms of varying intensity and coupling flood predictions to damage valuation. Saltmarshes reduced flooding across all studied estuaries and particularly for the largest – 100-year – storms, for which they mitigated average flood extents by 35% and damages by 37% ($8.4M). Across all storm scenarios, wetlands delivered mean annual damage savings of $2.7M per estuary, exceeding annualised values of better-studied wetland services such as carbon storage. Spatial decomposition of processes revealed flood mitigation arose from both localised wave attenuation and estuary-scale surge attenuation, with the latter process dominating: mean flood reductions were 17% in the sheltered top third of estuaries, compared to 8% near wave-exposed estuary mouths. Saltmarshes therefore play a generalised role in mitigating storm flooding and associated costs in estuaries via multi-scale processes. Ecosystem service modelling must integrate processes operating across scales or risk grossly underestimating the value of nature-based solutions to the growing threat of storm-driven coastal flooding.

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“…The higher the value in RCP scenario, the more energy the earth-atmosphere system gets and heats up (Weyant et al 2009). RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 designate the expectable and the worst scenarios in the future; therefore, they are representative of medium (delayed action) and high (growing) emission scenarios, respectively Li et al 2020).…”

Section: Future Climate Data and The Bias Correction Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of future climate change impact on rainfed wheat yield in the semi-arid Eastern High Plain of Algeria using a crop model

et al. 2020

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Maintaining sustainability in rainfed wheat production under changing climate is a grave concern for food security in Algeria. This study aims to assess the impact of future climate change on rainfed wheat yield in the semiarid Eastern High Plains (Setif and Bordj Bou Arreridj (BBA)) in Algeria using AquaCrop model. For this purpose, the EURO-CORDEX climate projections by 2035-2064 and 2065-2094 were downscaled using ICHEC_KNMI model under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The crop model predicted wheat yield increase by 82-95% and 77-118% at Setif and by 8-16% and 133-135% at BBA under the RCP 4.5 (2035-64 and 2065-94) and RCP 8.5 (2035-64 and 2065-94) scenarios, respectively, compared to the yield of the baseline period of 1981-2010. Future yield improvement is due to the fertilizing effect of the elevated carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration in the atmosphere, which offsets the negative impacts of rising temperature, decreasing precipitations and the net solar radiation. The expected increase in yield is much higher under RCP 8.5 compared to RCP 4.5 because CO 2 concentration is higher under RCP 8.5. The model predicted an increase in wheat water productivity because of the expected decrease in evapotranspiration losses. To adapt rainfed wheat to future climate change in the study area, early sowing in mid-October provides better yields because it allows the wheat crop to take more benefits from increased precipitation during the vegetative development stage and to avoid the spring warming temperature.

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Assessing storm surge impacts on coastal inundation due to climate change: case studies of Baltimore and Dorchester County in Maryland

Cited by 34 publications

References 108 publications

Sediment Exchange Between the Created Saltmarshes of Living Shorelines and Adjacent Submersed Aquatic Vegetation in the Chesapeake Bay

Sediment Exchange Between the Created Saltmarshes of Living Shorelines and Adjacent Submersed Aquatic Vegetation in the Chesapeake Bay

Coastal wetlands mitigate storm flooding and associated costs in estuaries

Assessment of future climate change impact on rainfed wheat yield in the semi-arid Eastern High Plain of Algeria using a crop model

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