Assessing river flood risk and adaptation in Europe—review of projections for the future

Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.; Lugeri, Nicola; Dankers, Rutger; Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Döll, Petra; Pińskwar, Iwona; Dysarz, Tomasz; Hochrainer, Stefan; Matczak, Piotr

doi:10.1007/s11027-010-9213-6

Cited by 119 publications

(56 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…Kundzewicz et al (2010) reviewed two studies, with one showing decreasing return periods of the 100-year flood and the other showing a mixed change (decreasing and increasing), whereas an increase has been projected by Rojas et al (2011). If-then scenarios in Austria analysed different flood change mechanisms, suggesting higher flood discharges in the northeast and small changes in the rest of the country .…”

Section: (Ii) Central Europe and Eastern Europementioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding flood regime changes in Europe: a state-of-the-art assessment

Hall

Arheimer

Borga

et al. 2014

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

461

323

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Abstract. There is growing concern that flooding is becoming more frequent and severe in Europe. A better understanding of flood regime changes and their drivers is therefore needed. The paper reviews the current knowledge on flood regime changes in European rivers that has traditionally been obtained through two alternative research approaches. The first approach is the data-based detection of changes in observed flood events. Current methods are reviewed together with their challenges and opportunities. For example, observation biases, the merging of different data sources and accounting for nonlinear drivers and responses. The second approach consists of modelled scenarios of future floods. Challenges and opportunities associated with flood change scenarios are discussed such as fully accounting for uncertainties in the modelling cascade and feedbacks. To make progress in flood change research, we suggest that a synthesis of these two approaches is needed. This can be achieved by focusing on long duration records and flood-rich and flood-poor periods rather than on short duration flood trends only, by formally attributing causes of observed flood changes, by validating scenarios against observed flood regime dynamics, and by developing low-dimensional models of flood changes and feedbacks. The paper finishes with a call for a joint European flood change research network.

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Section: (Ii) Central Europe and Eastern Europementioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding flood regime changes in Europe: a state-of-the-art assessment

Hall

Arheimer

Borga

et al. 2014

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

461

323

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…With mounting scientific evidence, there is a growing awareness across countries that flooding is likely to be exacerbated by climatic changes, sea-level rise, and increased urbanization (Kundzewicz et al 2010). Moreover, the occurrence of significant flood events within the research period, e.g., flooding in the United Kingdom in 2013-2014 and in France in 2015, has inevitably brought this issue to the fore.…”

Section: Driving Forcesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Coproducing flood risk management through citizen involvement: insights from cross-country comparison in Europe

Mees¹,

Crabbé²,

Alexander³

et al. 2016

E&S

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ABSTRACT. Across Europe, citizens are increasingly expected to participate in the implementation of flood risk management (FRM), by engaging in voluntary-based activities to enhance preparedness, implementing property-level measures, and so forth. Although citizen participation in FRM decision making is widely addressed in academic literature, citizens' involvement in the delivery of FRM measures is comparatively understudied. Drawing from public administration literature, we adopted the notion of "coproduction" as an analytical framework for studying the interaction between citizens and public authorities, from the decision-making process through to the implementation of FRM in practice. We considered to what extent coproduction is evident in selected European Union (EU) member states, drawing from research conducted within the EU project STAR-FLOOD (Strengthening and Redesigning European Flood Risk Practices towards Appropriate and Resilient Flood Risk Governance Arrangements). On the basis of a cross-country comparison between Flanders (Belgium), England (United Kingdom), France, the Netherlands, and Poland, we have highlighted the varied forms of coproduction and reflected on how these have been established within divergent settings. Coproduction is most prominent in discourse and practice in England and is emergent in France and Flanders. By contrast, FRM in the Netherlands and Poland remains almost exclusively reliant on governmental protection measures and thereby consultation-based forms of coproduction. Analysis revealed how these actions are motivated by different underlying rationales, which in turn shape the type of approaches and degree of institutionalization of coproduction. In the Netherlands, coproduction is primarily encouraged to increase societal resilience, whereas public authorities in the other countries also use it to improve cost-efficiency and redistribute responsibilities to its beneficiaries.

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“…Most notable increases in flood losses across the different climate future scenarios are projected for countries in Western Europe (Dankers and Feyen, 2009). The assessment of river risk based on climate scenarios in parts of Germany estimated that the small and medium flood discharge will increase by around 40-50% while the 100-year floods is going to increase by 15% in 2050 (Kundzewicz et al, 2010).…”

Section: ω γQsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulation and comparison of stream power in-channel and on the floodplain in a German lowland area

Song

Schmalz

Fohrer

2014

Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics

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Extensive lowland floodplains cover substantial parts of the glacially formed landscape of Northern Germany. Stream power is recognized as a force of formation and development of the river morphology and an interaction system between channel and floodplain. In order to understand the effects of the river power and flood power, HEC-RAS models were set up for ten river sections in the Upper Stör catchment, based on a 1 m digital elevation model and field data, sampled during a moderate water level period (September, 2011), flood season (January, 2012) and dry season (April, 2012). The models were proven to be highly efficient and accurate through the seasonal roughness modification. The coefficients of determination (R 2 ) of the calibrated models were 0.90, 0.90, 0.93 and 0.95 respectively. Combined with the continuous and long-term data support from SWAT model, the stream power both in-channel and on the floodplain was analysed. Results show that the 10-year-averaged discharge and unit stream power were around 1/3 of bankfull discharge and unit power, and the 10-year-peak discharge and unit stream power were nearly 1.6 times the bankfull conditions. Unit stream power was proportional to the increase of stream discharge, while the increase rate of unit in-channel stream power was 3 times higher than that of unit stream power on the floodplain. Finally, the distribution of the hydraulic parameters under 10-years-peak discharge conditions was shown, indicating that only 1-10% of flow stream was generated by floodplain flow, but 40-75% volume of water was located on the floodplain. The variation of the increasing rate of the stream power was dominated by the local roughness height, while the stream power distributed on the floodplain mainly depended on the local slope of the sub-catchment.

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Assessing river flood risk and adaptation in Europe—review of projections for the future

Abstract: Floods, Adaptation, Risk, Vulnerability, Climate projections, Climate change impacts,

Cited by 119 publications

References 21 publications

Understanding flood regime changes in Europe: a state-of-the-art assessment

Understanding flood regime changes in Europe: a state-of-the-art assessment

Coproducing flood risk management through citizen involvement: insights from cross-country comparison in Europe

Simulation and comparison of stream power in-channel and on the floodplain in a German lowland area

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